Moirai · UFC Personification of Fate

01 Strikes absorbed favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev eats 10.4 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Strickland

Sean Strickland lands 11.3 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev rides a 8-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev hits 0.73 more takedowns per minute
05 Control time favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev controls 139% more cage time
06 Submission rate favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev taps opponents 40% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 13 flagged · 100 markets analysed

Sean Strickland wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 10%

Bookies 2%

EV / $100 +$325

Stake 2.0%

41.00

$100 returns $4100

+$4000 profit
Sean Strickland wins by finish in Round 3
Solid edge

Model 6%

Bookies 2%

EV / $100 +$152

Stake 0.9%

41.00

$100 returns $4100

+$4000 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by finish in Round 3
Strong pick

Model 20%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$71

Stake 2.3%

8.75

$100 returns $875

+$775 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4
Solid edge

Model 9%

Bookies 5%

EV / $100 +$65

Stake 0.9%

19.00

$100 returns $1900

+$1800 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3
Solid edge

Model 22%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$41

Stake 1.9%

6.50

$100 returns $650

+$550 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO
Strong pick

Model 25%

Bookies 18%

EV / $100 +$39

Stake 2.1%

5.60

$100 returns $560

+$460 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 54%

Bookies 39%

EV / $100 +$38

Stake 6.1%

2.55

$100 returns $255

+$155 profit
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision
Strong pick

Model 65%

Bookies 49%

EV / $100 +$34

Stake 8.1%

2.06

$100 returns $206

+$106 profit
Fight ends by KO/TKO
Strong pick

Model 32%

Bookies 24%

EV / $100 +$33

Stake 2.6%

4.10

$100 returns $410

+$310 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 33%

Bookies 26%

EV / $100 +$28

Stake 2.4%

3.90

$100 returns $390

+$290 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by DEC
Solid edge

Model 29%

Bookies 23%

EV / $100 +$25

Stake 1.9%

4.30

$100 returns $430

+$330 profit
Fight goes to decision
Strong pick

Model 43%

Bookies 35%

EV / $100 +$24

Stake 3.2%

2.86

$100 returns $286

+$186 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins in R4+ or by Decision
Solid edge

Model 39%

Bookies 33%

EV / $100 +$16

Stake 1.9%

3.00

$100 returns $300

+$200 profit

Tatsuro Taira

18-1-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak

SB 1.56

48.7% | 51.3%

Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 12:45 PM AEST

Joshua Van

16-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 6-fight win streak

SB 2.43

▼

Model Favourite

Joshua Van

51.3 %

050100

90% CI · 38 – 64 · σ 0.065 · High

Why this pick

Tatsuro Taira eats 12.5 fewer strikes per minute
Joshua Van lands 18.7 more sig strikes per minute
Joshua Van rides a 4-fight longer win streak
Joshua Van out-volumes opponents at 27.8 sig/min vs Tatsuro Taira's 9.1
Joshua Van rides a 6-fight win streak (Tatsuro Taira: 2)

Method Breakdown

Taira Van

KO/TKO 7.2

23.3

Submission 20.3

0.6

Decision 21.2

27.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Taira

Tatsuro Taira eats 12.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Van

Joshua Van lands 18.7 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Van

Joshua Van rides a 4-fight longer win streak
04 Control time favours Taira

Tatsuro Taira controls 146% more cage time
05 Takedown volume favours Taira

Tatsuro Taira hits 0.47 more takedowns per minute
06 Submission rate favours Taira

Tatsuro Taira taps opponents 33% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 10 flagged · 78 markets analysed

Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 24%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$139

Stake 4.0%

9.75

$100 returns $975

+$875 profit
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 17%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$122

Stake 2.5%

13.00

$100 returns $1300

+$1200 profit
Joshua Van wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 27%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$64

Stake 3.2%

6.00

$100 returns $600

+$500 profit
Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$51

Stake 2.3%

6.50

$100 returns $650

+$550 profit
Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 16%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$50

Stake 1.5%

9.25

$100 returns $925

+$825 profit
Joshua Van wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 28%

Bookies 20%

EV / $100 +$42

Stake 2.6%

5.10

$100 returns $510

+$410 profit
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
Solid edge

Model 19%

Bookies 14%

EV / $100 +$33

Stake 1.4%

7.00

$100 returns $700

+$600 profit
Joshua Van wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 51%

Bookies 39%

EV / $100 +$29

Stake 4.7%

2.55

$100 returns $255

+$155 profit
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3
Solid edge

Model 23%

Bookies 18%

EV / $100 +$28

Stake 1.6%

5.50

$100 returns $550

+$450 profit
Fight goes to decision
Strong pick

Model 49%

Bookies 40%

EV / $100 +$23

Stake 3.7%

2.53

$100 returns $253

+$153 profit

Alexander Volkov

39-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.56

52.4% | 47.6%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST

Waldo Cortes Acosta

17-2-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 2.44

▼

Model Favourite

Waldo Cortes Acosta

47.6 %

050100

90% CI · 34 – 61 · σ 0.067 · High

Why this pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
Alexander Volkov lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Alexander Volkov out-volumes opponents at 16.3 sig/min vs Waldo Cortes Acosta's 13.7
Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 3-fight win streak (Alexander Volkov: 1)

Method Breakdown

Volkov Acosta

KO/TKO 22.9

20.4

Submission 6.2

0.5

Decision 23.3

26.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute
05 Finish rate favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov finishes 8% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Alexander Volkov

39-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.56

51.8% | 48.2%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST

Waldo Cortes Acosta

17-2-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 2.44

▼

Model Favourite

Waldo Cortes Acosta

48.2 %

050100

90% CI · 37 – 60 · σ 0.058 · High

Why this pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
Alexander Volkov lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Alexander Volkov out-volumes opponents at 16.3 sig/min vs Waldo Cortes Acosta's 13.7
Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 3-fight win streak (Alexander Volkov: 1)

Method Breakdown

Volkov Acosta

KO/TKO 11.8

18.1

Submission 7.0

3.1

Decision 33.1

27.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute
05 Finish rate favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov finishes 8% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Joaquin Buckley

21-7-0 Freestyle Southpaw 1 loss

SB 2.41

45.2% | 54.8%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:45 AM AEST

Sean Brady

18-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.57

▼

Model Favourite

Sean Brady

54.8 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 65 · σ 0.052 · High

Why this pick

Joaquin Buckley eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
Sean Brady lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
Sean Brady hits 0.50 more takedowns per minute
Sean Brady out-volumes opponents at 14.2 sig/min vs Joaquin Buckley's 13.0
Joaquin Buckley KOs 69% of opponents — Sean Brady has been KO'd in 20% of losses

Method Breakdown

Buckley Brady

KO/TKO 22.5

5.2

Submission 0.0

9.3

Decision 22.8

40.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Buckley

Joaquin Buckley eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Brady

Sean Brady lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Brady

Sean Brady hits 0.50 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Brady

Sean Brady controls 116% more cage time
05 KO rate favours Buckley

Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 49% more often
06 Submission rate favours Brady

Sean Brady taps opponents 40% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Jeremy Stephens

28-20-0 Freestyle Orthodox 7-fight loss streak

SB 3.46

29.2% | 70.8%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:15 AM AEST

King Green

34-17-1 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak

SB 1.31

▼

Model Favourite

King Green

70.8 %

050100

90% CI · 55 – 86 · σ 0.078 · Medium

Why this pick

King Green lands 7.0 more sig strikes per minute
King Green rides a 2-fight longer win streak
King Green comes in on a 7-fight cleaner skid
King Green out-volumes opponents at 16.5 sig/min vs Jeremy Stephens's 9.5
Jeremy Stephens has never been finished in 35 fights

Method Breakdown

Stephens Green

KO/TKO 7.4

29.4

Submission 0.0

5.3

Decision 21.8

36.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Green

King Green lands 7.0 more sig strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Green

King Green rides a 2-fight longer win streak
03 Loss streak favours Green

King Green comes in on a 7-fight cleaner skid
04 Strikes absorbed favours Green

King Green eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
05 Control time favours Stephens

Jeremy Stephens controls 17% more cage time
06 Striking accuracy favours Green

King Green is 12% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Ozzy Diaz

10-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

SB 7.00

27.0% | 73.0%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:35 AM AEST

Ateba Gautier

10-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 4-fight win streak

SB 1.10

▼

Model Favourite

Ateba Gautier

73.0 %

050100

90% CI · 16 – 100 · σ 0.075 · Medium

Why this pick

Ateba Gautier eats 13.1 fewer strikes per minute
Ozzy Diaz lands 11.8 more sig strikes per minute
Ateba Gautier rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Ozzy Diaz out-volumes opponents at 19.4 sig/min vs Ateba Gautier's 7.6
Ateba Gautier rides a 4-fight win streak (Ozzy Diaz: 1)

Method Breakdown

Diaz Gautier

KO/TKO 6.9

31.7

Submission 0.9

10.3

Decision 19.3

31.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier eats 13.1 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Diaz

Ozzy Diaz lands 11.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier rides a 3-fight longer win streak
04 KO durability favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier has been KO'd 50% less often
05 KO rate favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier finishes by KO 25% more often
06 Finish rate favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier finishes 25% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Yaroslav Amosov

29-1-0 nan 1 win

SB 1.55

56.0% | 44.0%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:10 AM AEST

Joel Alvarez

23-3-0 Striker Orthodox 4-fight win streak

SB 2.46

▼

Model Favourite

Yaroslav Amosov

56.0 %

050100

90% CI · 37 – 75 · σ 0.093 · Medium

Why this pick

Yaroslav Amosov eats 5.6 fewer strikes per minute
Joel Alvarez lands 8.4 more sig strikes per minute
Joel Alvarez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Joel Alvarez out-volumes opponents at 11.2 sig/min vs Yaroslav Amosov's 2.8
Joel Alvarez rides a 4-fight win streak (Yaroslav Amosov: 1)

Method Breakdown

Amosov Alvarez

KO/TKO 11.2

12.9

Submission 23.7

8.5

Decision 21.1

22.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Amosov

Yaroslav Amosov eats 5.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Alvarez

Joel Alvarez lands 8.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Alvarez

Joel Alvarez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
04 Submission rate favours Amosov

Yaroslav Amosov taps opponents 70% more often
05 KO rate favours Alvarez

Joel Alvarez finishes by KO 50% more often
06 Takedown volume favours Amosov

Yaroslav Amosov hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Grant Dawson

23-3-1 Switch Stance 1 loss

SB 1.57

63.5% | 36.5%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:40 AM AEST

Mateusz Rebecki

20-4-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 2-fight loss streak

SB 2.41

▼

Model Favourite

Grant Dawson

63.5 %

050100

90% CI · 48 – 80 · σ 0.080 · Medium

Why this pick

Grant Dawson eats 6.7 fewer strikes per minute
Mateusz Rebecki lands 5.2 more sig strikes per minute
Grant Dawson controls 128% more cage time
Mateusz Rebecki out-volumes opponents at 15.1 sig/min vs Grant Dawson's 9.9
Grant Dawson has never been finished in 14 fights

Method Breakdown

Dawson Rebecki

KO/TKO 9.7

8.7

Submission 20.4

4.7

Decision 33.5

23.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Dawson

Grant Dawson eats 6.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Rebecki

Mateusz Rebecki lands 5.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 Control time favours Dawson

Grant Dawson controls 128% more cage time
04 Takedown volume favours Dawson

Grant Dawson hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
05 Finish rate favours Dawson

Grant Dawson finishes 14% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Dawson

Grant Dawson taps opponents 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Jim Miller

38-19-0 Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 1 loss

SB 3.46

30.3% | 69.7%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:10 AM AEST

Jared Gordon

21-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.31

▼

Model Favourite

Jared Gordon

69.7 %

050100

90% CI · 54 – 85 · σ 0.077 · Medium

Why this pick

Jared Gordon lands 6.9 more sig strikes per minute
Jim Miller eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
Jim Miller taps opponents 28% more often
Jared Gordon out-volumes opponents at 14.9 sig/min vs Jim Miller's 8.0
Jim Miller has never been finished in 46 fights

Method Breakdown

Miller Gordon

KO/TKO 5.6

18.4

Submission 8.2

4.2

Decision 16.5

47.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Gordon

Jared Gordon lands 6.9 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Miller

Jim Miller eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
03 Submission rate favours Miller

Jim Miller taps opponents 28% more often
04 KO rate favours Gordon

Jared Gordon finishes by KO 24% more often
05 Control time favours Gordon

Jared Gordon controls 33% more cage time
06 KO durability favours Miller

Jim Miller has been KO'd 19% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Roman Kopylov

14-5-0 Southpaw 2-fight loss streak

SB 2.52

45.4% | 54.6%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:35 AM AEST

Marco Tulio

14-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.53

▼

Model Favourite

Marco Tulio

54.6 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 66 · σ 0.057 · High

Why this pick

Marco Tulio eats 11.5 fewer strikes per minute
Marco Tulio lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
Marco Tulio finishes by KO 55% more often
Marco Tulio out-volumes opponents at 18.9 sig/min vs Roman Kopylov's 14.4
Roman Kopylov has a 8-fight UFC experience edge (11 vs 3)

Method Breakdown

Kopylov Tulio

KO/TKO 22.3

15.1

Submission 7.0

4.3

Decision 16.1

35.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Tulio

Marco Tulio eats 11.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Tulio

Marco Tulio lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Tulio

Marco Tulio finishes by KO 55% more often
04 Takedown defence favours Kopylov

Roman Kopylov stuffs 89% more incoming takedowns
05 Finish rate favours Tulio

Marco Tulio finishes 36% more of their wins
06 KO durability favours Kopylov

Roman Kopylov has been KO'd 33% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Pat Sabatini

21-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 1.47

45.7% | 54.3%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:10 AM AEST

William Gomis

15-3-0 Southpaw 1 win

SB 2.71

▼

Model Favourite

William Gomis

54.3 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 66 · σ 0.059 · High

Why this pick

Pat Sabatini eats 6.0 fewer strikes per minute
William Gomis lands 6.8 more sig strikes per minute
Pat Sabatini hits 0.58 more takedowns per minute
William Gomis out-volumes opponents at 11.1 sig/min vs Pat Sabatini's 4.3
Pat Sabatini rides a 3-fight win streak (William Gomis: 1)

Method Breakdown

Sabatini Gomis

KO/TKO 5.2

17.6

Submission 17.4

4.3

Decision 23.1

32.4

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini eats 6.0 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Gomis

William Gomis lands 6.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini hits 0.58 more takedowns per minute
04 Win streak favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini rides a 2-fight longer win streak
05 Control time favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini controls 123% more cage time
06 Finish rate favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini finishes 33% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

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Djorden Santos

11-2-0 Orthodox 1 win

SB 5.75

24.1% | 75.9%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:40 AM AEST

Baisangur Susurkaev

11-0-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak

SB 1.14

▼

Model Favourite

Baisangur Susurkaev

75.9 %

050100

90% CI · 21 – 100 · σ 0.063 · High

Why this pick

Baisangur Susurkaev eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
Baisangur Susurkaev hits 1.00 more takedowns per minute
Baisangur Susurkaev lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
Baisangur Susurkaev out-volumes opponents at 24.4 sig/min vs Djorden Santos's 23.0
Djorden Santos has never been finished in 2 fights

Method Breakdown

Santos Susurkaev

KO/TKO 6.9

18.1

Submission 4.1

19.6

Decision 13.0

38.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Takedown volume favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev hits 1.00 more takedowns per minute
03 Striking volume favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
04 Finish rate favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev finishes 100% more of their wins
05 Control time favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev controls 155% more cage time
06 KO rate favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev finishes by KO 50% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Clayton Carpenter

8-2-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

SB 2.58

46.2% | 53.8%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:10 AM AEST

Jose Ochoa

8-2-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss

SB 1.50

▼

Model Favourite

Jose Ochoa

53.8 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 64 · σ 0.051 · High

Why this pick

Clayton Carpenter eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute
Jose Ochoa lands 4.4 more sig strikes per minute
Clayton Carpenter taps opponents 50% more often
Jose Ochoa out-volumes opponents at 10.1 sig/min vs Clayton Carpenter's 5.7
Jose Ochoa has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Carpenter Ochoa

KO/TKO 10.8

10.3

Submission 15.1

5.5

Decision 20.3

37.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Ochoa

Jose Ochoa lands 4.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Submission rate favours Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter taps opponents 50% more often
04 Finish rate favours Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter finishes 42% more of their wins
05 KO rate favours Ochoa

Jose Ochoa finishes by KO 33% more often
06 Control time favours Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter controls 50% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

2026

MAY

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

Arnold Allen

20-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss

SB 1.56

46.0% | 54.0%

Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST

Melquizael Costa

26-7-0 MMA Southpaw 6-fight win streak

SB 2.44

▼

Model Favourite

Melquizael Costa

54.0 %

050100

90% CI · 42 – 66 · σ 0.060 · High

Why this pick

Melquizael Costa eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
Melquizael Costa rides a 6-fight longer win streak
Arnold Allen lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
Melquizael Costa rides a 6-fight win streak (Arnold Allen: 0)
Arnold Allen has never been finished in 14 fights

Method Breakdown

Allen Costa

KO/TKO 10.7

19.7

Submission 11.7

8.6

Decision 23.6

25.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Costa

Melquizael Costa eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Costa

Melquizael Costa rides a 6-fight longer win streak
03 Striking volume favours Allen

Arnold Allen lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
04 Finish rate favours Costa

Melquizael Costa finishes 38% more of their wins
05 Takedown volume favours Costa

Melquizael Costa hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
06 KO rate favours Costa

Melquizael Costa finishes by KO 19% more often

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Dooho Choi

16-4-1 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak

47.4% | 52.6%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 10:00 AM AEST

Daniel Santos

14-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Daniel Santos

52.6 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 62 · σ 0.050 · High

Why this pick

Dooho Choi eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
Daniel Santos lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
Daniel Santos rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Daniel Santos out-volumes opponents at 14.3 sig/min vs Dooho Choi's 11.9
Daniel Santos rides a 4-fight win streak (Dooho Choi: 2)

Method Breakdown

Choi Santos

KO/TKO 20.4

18.5

Submission 6.5

4.1

Decision 20.6

29.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Choi

Dooho Choi eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Santos

Daniel Santos lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Santos

Daniel Santos rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Santos

Daniel Santos hits 0.36 more takedowns per minute
05 KO rate favours Choi

Dooho Choi finishes by KO 38% more often
06 Finish rate favours Choi

Dooho Choi finishes 38% more of their wins

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Malcolm Wellmaker

10-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 1 loss

49.3% | 50.7%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 10:00 AM AEST

Juan Diaz

1-0-0 nan

▼

Model Favourite

Juan Diaz

50.7 %

050100

90% CI · 38 – 64 · σ 0.066 · High

Why this pick

Juan Diaz comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Malcolm Wellmaker out-volumes opponents at 11.2 sig/min vs Juan Diaz's 0.0
Malcolm Wellmaker has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Wellmaker Diaz

KO/TKO 22.5

16.8

Submission 5.7

13.9

Decision 21.1

19.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Diaz

Juan Diaz comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Modestas Bukauskas

19-7-0 Kickboxer Switch Stance 1 loss

38.6% | 61.4%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 10:00 AM AEST

Rodolfo Bellato

13-3-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Rodolfo Bellato

61.4 %

050100

90% CI · 51 – 72 · σ 0.052 · High

Why this pick

Modestas Bukauskas eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
Rodolfo Bellato rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Rodolfo Bellato out-volumes opponents at 11.5 sig/min vs Modestas Bukauskas's 8.2
Rodolfo Bellato has never been finished in 5 fights

Method Breakdown

Bukauskas Bellato

KO/TKO 11.0

32.5

Submission 3.5

3.7

Decision 24.2

25.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Bukauskas

Modestas Bukauskas eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute
05 Finish rate favours Bukauskas

Modestas Bukauskas finishes 24% more of their wins
06 KO durability favours Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato has been KO'd 36% less often

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Benardo Sopaj

12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

44.7% | 55.3%

3 rds

Timmy Cuamba

2-2-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Timmy Cuamba

55.3 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 66 · σ 0.056 · High

Why this pick

Timmy Cuamba eats 5.5 fewer strikes per minute
Benardo Sopaj lands 5.2 more sig strikes per minute
Timmy Cuamba rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Benardo Sopaj out-volumes opponents at 13.0 sig/min vs Timmy Cuamba's 7.8
Timmy Cuamba has never been finished in 4 fights

Method Breakdown

Sopaj Cuamba

KO/TKO 15.9

23.1

Submission 2.7

5.1

Decision 26.1

27.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Cuamba

Timmy Cuamba eats 5.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Sopaj

Benardo Sopaj lands 5.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Cuamba

Timmy Cuamba rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Sopaj

Benardo Sopaj hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
05 KO durability favours Cuamba

Timmy Cuamba has been KO'd 50% less often
06 KO rate favours Sopaj

Benardo Sopaj finishes by KO 25% more often

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Nicolas Dalby

24-6-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win

40.0% | 60.0%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-1 Striker Switch Stance 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Jeremiah Wells

60.0 %

050100

90% CI · 47 – 74 · σ 0.068 · High

Why this pick

Jeremiah Wells eats 6.4 fewer strikes per minute
Nicolas Dalby lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
Jeremiah Wells hits 0.42 more takedowns per minute
Nicolas Dalby out-volumes opponents at 11.2 sig/min vs Jeremiah Wells's 6.8
Nicolas Dalby has never been finished in 15 fights

Method Breakdown

Dalby Wells

KO/TKO 8.2

6.5

Submission 1.4

4.4

Decision 30.4

49.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells eats 6.4 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Dalby

Nicolas Dalby lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells hits 0.42 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells controls 88% more cage time
05 Finish rate favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells finishes 44% more of their wins
06 KO rate favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells finishes by KO 15% more often

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Tuco Tokkos

11-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win

57.2% | 42.8%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Ivan Erslan

14-6-0 Boxing Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Tuco Tokkos

57.2 %

050100

90% CI · 48 – 66 · σ 0.045 · High

Why this pick

Tuco Tokkos eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
Ivan Erslan lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
Tuco Tokkos hits 0.53 more takedowns per minute
Ivan Erslan out-volumes opponents at 6.4 sig/min vs Tuco Tokkos's 3.5
Model uncertainty: ±5pp on the win probability

Method Breakdown

Tokkos Erslan

KO/TKO 7.6

12.5

Submission 21.3

5.1

Decision 28.3

25.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Erslan

Ivan Erslan lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos hits 0.53 more takedowns per minute
04 Win streak favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos rides a 1-fight longer win streak
05 Finish rate favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos finishes 33% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos taps opponents 33% more often

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Trey Ogden

18-7-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

51.4% | 48.6%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Tommy Gantt

1-0-0 Orthodox

▼

Model Favourite

Tommy Gantt

48.6 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 54 · σ 0.025 · High

Why this pick

Tommy Gantt comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Trey Ogden out-volumes opponents at 9.9 sig/min vs Tommy Gantt's 0.0
Trey Ogden has never been finished in 7 fights

Method Breakdown

Ogden Gantt

KO/TKO 10.5

9.0

Submission 11.5

9.0

Decision 29.4

30.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Gantt

Tommy Gantt comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Ketlen Vieira

15-5-0 Judo Orthodox 1 loss

34.6% | 65.4%

W Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

10-1-0 Striker Orthodox 5-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

65.4 %

050100

90% CI · 56 – 75 · σ 0.046 · High

Why this pick

Jacqueline Cavalcanti lands 8.4 more sig strikes per minute
Jacqueline Cavalcanti eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
Jacqueline Cavalcanti rides a 5-fight longer win streak
Jacqueline Cavalcanti out-volumes opponents at 17.0 sig/min vs Ketlen Vieira's 8.6
Jacqueline Cavalcanti rides a 5-fight win streak (Ketlen Vieira: 0)

Method Breakdown

Vieira Cavalcanti

KO/TKO 8.1

17.0

Submission 6.3

3.0

Decision 20.2

45.5

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti lands 8.4 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti rides a 5-fight longer win streak
04 Control time favours Vieira

Ketlen Vieira controls 89% more cage time
05 Takedown volume favours Vieira

Ketlen Vieira hits 0.27 more takedowns per minute
06 Striking defence favours Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti avoids 18% more incoming strikes

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Cody Brundage

11-9-1 Wrestler Orthodox 4-fight loss streak

44.7% | 55.3%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Andre Petroski

13-6-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Andre Petroski

55.3 %

050100

90% CI · 41 – 70 · σ 0.071 · Medium

Why this pick

Cody Brundage eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
Andre Petroski lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
Andre Petroski hits 0.35 more takedowns per minute
Andre Petroski out-volumes opponents at 8.3 sig/min vs Cody Brundage's 5.2
Cody Brundage has never been finished in 14 fights

Method Breakdown

Brundage Petroski

KO/TKO 10.2

9.7

Submission 6.0

19.6

Decision 28.5

26.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Brundage

Cody Brundage eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Petroski

Andre Petroski lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Petroski

Andre Petroski hits 0.35 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Petroski

Andre Petroski controls 72% more cage time
05 Takedown defence favours Petroski

Andre Petroski stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns
06 Submission rate favours Petroski

Andre Petroski taps opponents 10% more often

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Alice Ardelean

11-7-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak

47.2% | 52.8%

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Polyana Viana

13-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Polyana Viana

52.8 %

050100

90% CI · 42 – 64 · σ 0.056 · High

Why this pick

Polyana Viana eats 9.9 fewer strikes per minute
Alice Ardelean lands 15.8 more sig strikes per minute
Alice Ardelean rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Alice Ardelean out-volumes opponents at 22.1 sig/min vs Polyana Viana's 6.3
Alice Ardelean has never been finished in 4 fights

Method Breakdown

Ardelean Viana

KO/TKO 19.9

10.4

Submission 2.8

14.8

Decision 24.5

27.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Viana

Polyana Viana eats 9.9 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Ardelean

Alice Ardelean lands 15.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Ardelean

Alice Ardelean rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Viana

Polyana Viana finishes 73% more of their wins
05 Takedown defence favours Ardelean

Alice Ardelean stuffs 51% more incoming takedowns
06 Submission rate favours Viana

Polyana Viana taps opponents 27% more often

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Daniel Barez

17-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss

45.6% | 54.4%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Luis Gurule

10-3-0 Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Luis Gurule

54.4 %

050100

90% CI · 46 – 63 · σ 0.043 · High

Why this pick

Luis Gurule eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
Luis Gurule lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute
Luis Gurule finishes by KO 33% more often
Luis Gurule out-volumes opponents at 10.7 sig/min vs Daniel Barez's 10.2
Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability

Method Breakdown

Barez Gurule

KO/TKO 13.2

17.2

Submission 7.8

4.1

Decision 24.7

33.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Gurule

Luis Gurule eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Gurule

Luis Gurule lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Gurule

Luis Gurule finishes by KO 33% more often
04 Finish rate favours Barez

Daniel Barez finishes 33% more of their wins
05 KO durability favours Barez

Daniel Barez has been KO'd 33% less often
06 Sub defence favours Gurule

Luis Gurule has been submitted 67% less often

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Nicolle Caliari

8-4-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

46.5% | 53.5%

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Shauna Bannon

7-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Shauna Bannon

53.5 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 64 · σ 0.051 · High

Why this pick

Shauna Bannon eats 20.3 fewer strikes per minute
Nicolle Caliari lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
Nicolle Caliari hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
Nicolle Caliari out-volumes opponents at 15.2 sig/min vs Shauna Bannon's 12.8
Model uncertainty: ±5pp on the win probability

Method Breakdown

Caliari Bannon

KO/TKO 9.2

10.5

Submission 5.4

14.9

Decision 31.9

28.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Bannon

Shauna Bannon eats 20.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Caliari

Nicolle Caliari lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Caliari

Nicolle Caliari hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
04 KO rate favours Caliari

Nicolle Caliari finishes by KO 50% more often
05 Control time favours Caliari

Nicolle Caliari controls 56% more cage time
06 KO durability favours Bannon

Shauna Bannon has been KO'd 50% less often

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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

2026

MAY

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

Galaxy Arena, Cotai, Macau

Bouts

Alex Perez

26-10-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win

51.5% | 48.5%

3 rds

nan Sumudaerji

Southpaw

▼

Model Favourite

nan Sumudaerji

48.5 %

050100

90% CI · 40 – 57 · σ 0.044 · High

Why this pick

Alex Perez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Alex Perez out-volumes opponents at 9.9 sig/min vs Sumudaerji's 0.0
Alex Perez has a 14-fight UFC experience edge (14 vs 0)

Method Breakdown

Perez Sumudaerji

KO/TKO 7.6

13.9

Submission 21.4

16.0

Decision 22.4

18.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Win streak favours Perez

Alex Perez rides a 1-fight longer win streak

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nan Aoriqileng

Orthodox

47.4% | 52.6%

3 rds

Cody Haddon

8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Cody Haddon

52.6 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 63 · σ 0.050 · High

Why this pick

Cody Haddon rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Cody Haddon out-volumes opponents at 28.0 sig/min vs Aoriqileng's 0.0
Cody Haddon has never been finished in 1 fights

Method Breakdown

Aoriqileng Haddon

KO/TKO 8.2

19.9

Submission 15.2

6.8

Decision 24.0

25.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Win streak favours Haddon

Cody Haddon rides a 1-fight longer win streak

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Angela Hill

18-16-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

55.4% | 44.6%

3 rds

Xiong Jingnan

nan

▼

Model Favourite

Angela Hill

55.4 %

050100

90% CI · 39 – 72 · σ 0.084 · Medium

Why this pick

Xiong Jingnan comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
Angela Hill out-volumes opponents at 16.3 sig/min vs Xiong Jingnan's 0.0
Angela Hill has a 29-fight UFC experience edge (29 vs 0)

Method Breakdown

Hill Jingnan

KO/TKO 22.0

9.6

Submission 11.1

9.2

Decision 22.3

25.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Jingnan

Xiong Jingnan comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

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Song Yadong

22-9-1 Boxer Orthodox 1 loss

60.4% | 39.6%

Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Deiveson Figueiredo

25-6-1 Boxing Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Song Yadong

60.4 %

050100

90% CI · 47 – 73 · σ 0.065 · High

Why this pick

Song Yadong lands 6.2 more sig strikes per minute
Deiveson Figueiredo eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
Deiveson Figueiredo hits 0.16 more takedowns per minute
Song Yadong out-volumes opponents at 14.1 sig/min vs Deiveson Figueiredo's 7.9
Deiveson Figueiredo has never been finished in 21 fights

Method Breakdown

Yadong Figueiredo

KO/TKO 21.4

9.8

Submission 5.7

9.8

Decision 33.3

20.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Yadong

Song Yadong lands 6.2 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Figueiredo

Deiveson Figueiredo eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Figueiredo

Deiveson Figueiredo hits 0.16 more takedowns per minute
04 Submission rate favours Figueiredo

Deiveson Figueiredo taps opponents 13% more often
05 Takedown defence favours Yadong

Song Yadong stuffs 16% more incoming takedowns
06 KO rate favours Yadong

Song Yadong finishes by KO 9% more often

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Alonzo Menifield

17-6-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss

37.3% | 62.7%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Zhang Mingyang

19-7-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Zhang Mingyang

62.7 %

050100

90% CI · 46 – 80 · σ 0.084 · Medium

Why this pick

Zhang Mingyang eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
Zhang Mingyang lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
Zhang Mingyang finishes by KO 53% more often
Zhang Mingyang out-volumes opponents at 10.9 sig/min vs Alonzo Menifield's 9.0
Alonzo Menifield has a 13-fight UFC experience edge (17 vs 4)

Method Breakdown

Menifield Mingyang

KO/TKO 16.1

37.8

Submission 5.1

3.9

Decision 16.1

21.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang finishes by KO 53% more often
04 Finish rate favours Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang finishes 41% more of their wins
05 Control time favours Menifield

Alonzo Menifield controls 27% more cage time
06 Takedown volume favours Menifield

Alonzo Menifield hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

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Sergei Pavlovich

20-3-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight win streak

48.4% | 51.6%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Tallison Teixeira

9-1-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Tallison Teixeira

51.6 %

050100

90% CI · 38 – 65 · σ 0.066 · High

Why this pick

Sergei Pavlovich eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
Tallison Teixeira lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
Tallison Teixeira hits 0.43 more takedowns per minute
Tallison Teixeira out-volumes opponents at 10.1 sig/min vs Sergei Pavlovich's 8.5
Sergei Pavlovich KOs 73% of opponents — Tallison Teixeira has been KO'd in 33% of losses

Method Breakdown

Pavlovich Teixeira

KO/TKO 27.0

21.6

Submission 3.1

9.5

Decision 18.3

20.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Teixeira

Tallison Teixeira lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Teixeira

Tallison Teixeira hits 0.43 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Teixeira

Tallison Teixeira controls 93% more cage time
05 Win streak favours Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich rides a 1-fight longer win streak
06 Striking defence favours Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich avoids 23% more incoming strikes

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Kai Asakura

21-6-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

34.2% | 65.8%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Cameron Smotherman

12-6-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Cameron Smotherman

65.8 %

050100

90% CI · 53 – 79 · σ 0.066 · High

Why this pick

Cameron Smotherman lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute
Kai Asakura eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
Kai Asakura finishes 100% more of their wins
Cameron Smotherman out-volumes opponents at 12.2 sig/min vs Kai Asakura's 5.6
Cameron Smotherman has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Asakura Smotherman

KO/TKO 6.2

23.1

Submission 4.9

5.5

Decision 23.1

37.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Smotherman

Cameron Smotherman lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Asakura

Kai Asakura eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
03 Finish rate favours Asakura

Kai Asakura finishes 100% more of their wins
04 Durability favours Smotherman

Cameron Smotherman has been finished 100% less often
05 Sub defence favours Smotherman

Cameron Smotherman has been submitted 100% less often
06 Striking defence favours Smotherman

Cameron Smotherman avoids 8% more incoming strikes

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Alex Perez

26-10-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win

— | —

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Sumudaerji

19-7-0 Striker

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Perez	Sumudaerji
Career record	26-10-0	19-7-0
Last 3 win %	33%	—
Finish rate	79%	—
KO/TKO rate	43%	—
Sub rate	14%	—
Sig strikes / min ↑	9.9	—

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

Jake Matthews

22-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss

69.0% | 31.0%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Muslim Salikhov

22-6-0 Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Jake Matthews

69.0 %

050100

90% CI · 51 – 87 · σ 0.088 · Medium

Why this pick

Jake Matthews lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
Muslim Salikhov finishes by KO 44% more often
Muslim Salikhov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
Jake Matthews out-volumes opponents at 9.6 sig/min vs Muslim Salikhov's 8.3
Jake Matthews has never been finished in 23 fights

Method Breakdown

Matthews Salikhov

KO/TKO 19.3

16.4

Submission 14.3

2.8

Decision 35.5

11.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Matthews

Jake Matthews lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
02 KO rate favours Salikhov

Muslim Salikhov finishes by KO 44% more often
03 Strikes absorbed favours Salikhov

Muslim Salikhov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
04 Control time favours Matthews

Jake Matthews controls 54% more cage time
05 Submission rate favours Matthews

Jake Matthews taps opponents 26% more often
06 Takedown volume favours Matthews

Jake Matthews hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

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Luis Felipe Dias

nan

44.7% | 55.3%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Yi Sak Lee

0-0-0 nan

▼

Model Favourite

Yi Sak Lee

55.3 %

050100

90% CI · 41 – 69 · σ 0.069 · High

Why this pick

Yi Sak Lee is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse
Model uncertainty: ±7pp on the win probability
Model favours Luis Felipe Dias at 45% / Yi Sak Lee at 55%

Method Breakdown

Dias Lee

KO/TKO 10.5

18.8

Submission 14.6

14.4

Decision 19.7

22.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Lee

Yi Sak Lee is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse

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Aoriqileng

26-11-0

— | —

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Cody Haddon

8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Aoriqileng	Haddon
Career record	26-11-0	8-1-0
Last 3 win %	—	100%
Finish rate	—	0%
KO/TKO rate	—	0%
Sub rate	—	0%
Sig strikes / min ↑	—	28.0

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

Jesus Aguilar

12-4-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win

43.0% | 57.0%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Rei Tsuruya

10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Rei Tsuruya

57.0 %

050100

90% CI · 47 – 67 · σ 0.051 · High

Why this pick

Jesus Aguilar eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
Jesus Aguilar lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
Rei Tsuruya hits 0.52 more takedowns per minute
Jesus Aguilar out-volumes opponents at 6.5 sig/min vs Rei Tsuruya's 4.9
Rei Tsuruya has never been finished in 2 fights

Method Breakdown

Aguilar Tsuruya

KO/TKO 9.1

7.8

Submission 8.3

8.5

Decision 25.6

40.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Tsuruya

Rei Tsuruya hits 0.52 more takedowns per minute
04 Finish rate favours Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar finishes 50% more of their wins
05 Win streak favours Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar rides a 1-fight longer win streak
06 Control time favours Tsuruya

Rei Tsuruya controls 68% more cage time

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Angela Hill

18-16-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

— | —

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Jingnan Xiong

0-0-0

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Hill	Xiong
Career record	18-16-0	0-0-0
Last 3 win %	33%	—
Finish rate	17%	—
KO/TKO rate	7%	—
Sub rate	3%	—
Sig strikes / min ↑	16.3	—

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

Loma Lookboonmee

10-4-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss

36.7% | 63.3%

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Jaqueline Amorim

10-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Jaqueline Amorim

63.3 %

050100

90% CI · 46 – 81 · σ 0.086 · Medium

Why this pick

Jaqueline Amorim eats 4.0 fewer strikes per minute
Loma Lookboonmee lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
Jaqueline Amorim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
Loma Lookboonmee out-volumes opponents at 11.3 sig/min vs Jaqueline Amorim's 7.0
Jaqueline Amorim rides a 4-fight win streak (Loma Lookboonmee: 0)

Method Breakdown

Lookboonmee Amorim

KO/TKO 8.3

11.2

Submission 4.9

22.4

Decision 23.4

29.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim eats 4.0 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Lookboonmee

Loma Lookboonmee lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim finishes 70% more of their wins
05 Control time favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim controls 91% more cage time
06 Submission rate favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim taps opponents 50% more often

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Zhu Kangjie

3-0-0 Orthodox

49.1% | 50.9%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Ramon Taveras

10-4-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Ramon Taveras

50.9 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 58 · σ 0.036 · High

Why this pick

Zhu Kangjie comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
Ramon Taveras out-volumes opponents at 11.6 sig/min vs Zhu Kangjie's 0.0
Ramon Taveras has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Kangjie Taveras

KO/TKO 11.1

16.0

Submission 6.8

7.3

Decision 31.2

27.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Kangjie

Zhu Kangjie comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

2026

JUN

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

Belal Muhammad

24-5-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

24.9% | 75.1%

Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Gabriel Bonfim

19-1-0 Striker Orthodox 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Gabriel Bonfim

75.1 %

050100

90% CI · 19 – 100 · σ 0.091 · Medium

Why this pick

Gabriel Bonfim eats 4.2 fewer strikes per minute
Belal Muhammad lands 4.1 more sig strikes per minute
Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
Belal Muhammad out-volumes opponents at 15.4 sig/min vs Gabriel Bonfim's 11.3
Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight win streak (Belal Muhammad: 0)

Method Breakdown

Muhammad Bonfim

KO/TKO 7.2

27.4

Submission 4.2

12.0

Decision 13.5

35.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim eats 4.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Muhammad

Belal Muhammad lands 4.1 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim finishes 52% more of their wins
05 Submission rate favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim taps opponents 38% more often
06 Takedown volume favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

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Brendan Allen

26-7-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak

59.8% | 40.2%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Edmen Shahbazyan

16-5-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Brendan Allen

59.8 %

050100

90% CI · 48 – 72 · σ 0.060 · High

Why this pick

Edmen Shahbazyan eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
Brendan Allen lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
Edmen Shahbazyan rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Brendan Allen out-volumes opponents at 10.2 sig/min vs Edmen Shahbazyan's 8.8
Edmen Shahbazyan rides a 3-fight win streak (Brendan Allen: 2)

Method Breakdown

Allen Shahbazyan

KO/TKO 10.4

9.6

Submission 29.8

5.1

Decision 19.6

25.5

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Allen

Brendan Allen lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 KO rate favours Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan finishes by KO 42% more often
05 Submission rate favours Allen

Brendan Allen taps opponents 32% more often
06 Control time favours Allen

Brendan Allen controls 44% more cage time

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Victor Henry

25-7-0 Switch Stance 1 win

19.6% | 80.4%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Bryce Mitchell

18-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Bryce Mitchell

80.4 %

050100

90% CI · 29 – 100 · σ 0.072 · Medium

Why this pick

Bryce Mitchell eats 12.2 fewer strikes per minute
Victor Henry lands 16.7 more sig strikes per minute
Bryce Mitchell hits 0.39 more takedowns per minute
Victor Henry out-volumes opponents at 23.2 sig/min vs Bryce Mitchell's 6.4
Bryce Mitchell has never been finished in 12 fights

Method Breakdown

Henry Mitchell

KO/TKO 5.3

7.3

Submission 0.9

18.2

Decision 13.4

54.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell eats 12.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Henry

Victor Henry lands 16.7 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell hits 0.39 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell controls 95% more cage time
05 Takedown defence favours Henry

Victor Henry stuffs 48% more incoming takedowns
06 Finish rate favours Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell finishes 13% more of their wins

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Billy Elekana

10-2-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak

49.3% | 50.7%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Iwo Baraniewski

8-0-0 Judo Orthodox 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Iwo Baraniewski

50.7 %

050100

90% CI · 39 – 63 · σ 0.060 · High

Why this pick

Billy Elekana eats 6.9 fewer strikes per minute
Iwo Baraniewski lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
Iwo Baraniewski finishes by KO 100% more often
Iwo Baraniewski out-volumes opponents at 16.1 sig/min vs Billy Elekana's 6.2
Iwo Baraniewski has never been finished in 2 fights

Method Breakdown

Elekana Baraniewski

KO/TKO 9.9

25.9

Submission 20.9

6.1

Decision 18.6

18.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Elekana

Billy Elekana eats 6.9 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski finishes by KO 100% more often
04 Submission rate favours Elekana

Billy Elekana taps opponents 50% more often
05 Win streak favours Elekana

Billy Elekana rides a 1-fight longer win streak
06 Finish rate favours Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski finishes 25% more of their wins

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Matt Schnell

17-10-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

25.7% | 74.3%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Imanol Rodriguez

7-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Imanol Rodriguez

74.3 %

050100

90% CI · 18 – 100 · σ 0.081 · Medium

Why this pick

Imanol Rodriguez eats 4.0 fewer strikes per minute
Imanol Rodriguez lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
Imanol Rodriguez finishes by KO 67% more often
Matt Schnell has a 14-fight UFC experience edge (15 vs 1)
Imanol Rodriguez out-volumes opponents at 10.6 sig/min vs Matt Schnell's 9.2

Method Breakdown

Schnell Rodriguez

KO/TKO 5.5

34.2

Submission 10.2

8.3

Decision 10.0

31.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez eats 4.0 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez finishes by KO 67% more often
04 Win streak favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
05 Control time favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez controls 70% more cage time
06 Finish rate favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez finishes 33% more of their wins

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Jakub Wiklacz

18-3-2 Grappler Orthodox 2-fight win streak

38.8% | 61.2%

3 rds

Marcus McGhee

10-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Marcus McGhee

61.2 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 80 · σ 0.093 · Medium

Why this pick

Marcus McGhee lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
Marcus McGhee eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
Jakub Wiklacz rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Marcus McGhee out-volumes opponents at 14.7 sig/min vs Jakub Wiklacz's 10.2
Marcus McGhee has never been finished in 5 fights

Method Breakdown

Wiklacz McGhee

KO/TKO 8.4

11.2

Submission 11.8

8.7

Decision 18.6

41.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours McGhee

Marcus McGhee lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours McGhee

Marcus McGhee eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Wiklacz

Jakub Wiklacz rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 KO rate favours McGhee

Marcus McGhee finishes by KO 40% more often
05 Control time favours Wiklacz

Jakub Wiklacz controls 50% more cage time
06 Takedown defence favours McGhee

Marcus McGhee stuffs 48% more incoming takedowns

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Bruno Silva

15-8-2 Grappler Orthodox

40.2% | 59.8%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Edgar Chairez

13-6-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Edgar Chairez

59.8 %

050100

90% CI · 52 – 68 · σ 0.041 · High

Why this pick

Edgar Chairez rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Edgar Chairez out-volumes opponents at 8.4 sig/min vs Bruno Silva's 0.0
Edgar Chairez has never been finished in 6 fights

Method Breakdown

Silva Chairez

KO/TKO 9.4

23.4

Submission 7.4

15.6

Decision 23.4

20.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Win streak favours Chairez

Edgar Chairez rides a 2-fight longer win streak

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Yuneisy Duben

6-1-0 Orthodox 1 loss

45.5% | 54.5%

W Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Jeisla Chaves

1-0-0 Orthodox

▼

Model Favourite

Jeisla Chaves

54.5 %

050100

90% CI · 47 – 62 · σ 0.037 · High

Why this pick

Jeisla Chaves comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Yuneisy Duben out-volumes opponents at 8.4 sig/min vs Jeisla Chaves's 0.0
Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability

Method Breakdown

Duben Chaves

KO/TKO 21.3

20.1

Submission 5.8

15.4

Decision 18.4

19.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Chaves

Jeisla Chaves comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Fares Ziam

18-4-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 6-fight win streak

61.3% | 38.7%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Tom Nolan

10-1-0 Southpaw 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Fares Ziam

61.3 %

050100

90% CI · 46 – 76 · σ 0.075 · Medium

Why this pick

Fares Ziam eats 5.5 fewer strikes per minute
Tom Nolan lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
Fares Ziam rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Tom Nolan out-volumes opponents at 11.8 sig/min vs Fares Ziam's 8.3
Fares Ziam rides a 6-fight win streak (Tom Nolan: 4)

Method Breakdown

Ziam Nolan

KO/TKO 14.0

11.7

Submission 8.2

6.8

Decision 39.1

20.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Ziam

Fares Ziam eats 5.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Nolan

Tom Nolan lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Ziam

Fares Ziam rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Ziam

Fares Ziam hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
05 Control time favours Ziam

Fares Ziam controls 60% more cage time
06 Finish rate favours Nolan

Tom Nolan finishes 30% more of their wins

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Ariane Carnelossi

15-4-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

20.4% | 79.6%

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Ketlen Souza

16-6-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Ketlen Souza

79.6 %

050100

90% CI · 28 – 100 · σ 0.053 · High

Why this pick

Ketlen Souza eats 7.4 fewer strikes per minute
Ariane Carnelossi finishes 47% more of their wins
Ketlen Souza rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Ketlen Souza has never been finished in 6 fights
Ariane Carnelossi has never been finished in 5 fights

Method Breakdown

Carnelossi Souza

KO/TKO 3.9

17.4

Submission 5.0

20.0

Decision 11.6

42.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Souza

Ketlen Souza eats 7.4 fewer strikes per minute
02 Finish rate favours Carnelossi

Ariane Carnelossi finishes 47% more of their wins
03 Win streak favours Souza

Ketlen Souza rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Carnelossi

Ariane Carnelossi hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
05 KO rate favours Carnelossi

Ariane Carnelossi finishes by KO 40% more often
06 Takedown defence favours Souza

Ketlen Souza stuffs 34% more incoming takedowns

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Joanderson Brito

18-5-1 Striker Orthodox 1 win

50.9% | 49.1%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Jordan Leavitt

13-3-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Jordan Leavitt

49.1 %

050100

90% CI · 38 – 61 · σ 0.058 · High

Why this pick

Jordan Leavitt eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
Jordan Leavitt rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Jordan Leavitt avoids 15% more incoming strikes
Joanderson Brito has never been finished in 9 fights
Jordan Leavitt has never been finished in 9 fights

Method Breakdown

Brito Leavitt

KO/TKO 6.8

10.8

Submission 19.0

9.5

Decision 25.2

28.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt rides a 1-fight longer win streak
03 Striking defence favours Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt avoids 15% more incoming strikes
04 KO rate favours Brito

Joanderson Brito finishes by KO 11% more often
05 Takedown defence favours Brito

Joanderson Brito stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns
06 Finish rate favours Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt finishes 11% more of their wins

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Priscila Cachoeira

13-8-0 Brawler Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

43.5% | 56.5%

W Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Chelsea Chandler

6-4-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Chelsea Chandler

56.5 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 69 · σ 0.063 · High

Why this pick

Chelsea Chandler eats 8.2 fewer strikes per minute
Priscila Cachoeira lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
Chelsea Chandler controls 60% more cage time
Priscila Cachoeira out-volumes opponents at 10.9 sig/min vs Chelsea Chandler's 8.5
Priscila Cachoeira has a 8-fight UFC experience edge (13 vs 5)

Method Breakdown

Cachoeira Chandler

KO/TKO 16.2

11.9

Submission 2.8

10.1

Decision 24.5

34.4

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Chandler

Chelsea Chandler eats 8.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Cachoeira

Priscila Cachoeira lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
03 Control time favours Chandler

Chelsea Chandler controls 60% more cage time
04 Finish rate favours Cachoeira

Priscila Cachoeira finishes 29% more of their wins
05 Takedown defence favours Cachoeira

Priscila Cachoeira stuffs 41% more incoming takedowns
06 Takedown volume favours Chandler

Chelsea Chandler hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

2026

JUN

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

South Lawn of the White House, Washington, USA

Bouts

Value Bouts

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak

SB 5.75

19.3% | 80.7%

Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 11:15 AM AEST

Ilia Topuria

17-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 9-fight win streak

SB 1.13

▼

Model Favourite

Ilia Topuria

80.7 %

050100

90% CI · 30 – 100 · σ 0.064 · High

Why this pick

Ilia Topuria eats 13.6 fewer strikes per minute
Justin Gaethje lands 8.8 more sig strikes per minute
Ilia Topuria rides a 7-fight longer win streak
Justin Gaethje out-volumes opponents at 22.6 sig/min vs Ilia Topuria's 13.8
Ilia Topuria rides a 9-fight win streak (Justin Gaethje: 2)

Method Breakdown

Gaethje Topuria

KO/TKO 6.4

48.1

Submission 0.8

12.4

Decision 12.1

20.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria eats 13.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Gaethje

Justin Gaethje lands 8.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria rides a 7-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria hits 0.30 more takedowns per minute
05 Control time favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria controls 42% more cage time
06 Striking defence favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria avoids 13% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 11 flagged · 100 markets analysed

Ilia Topuria wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 20%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$163

Stake 3.4%

13.00

$100 returns $1300

+$1200 profit
Fight goes to Decision
Strong pick

Model 32%

Bookies 14%

EV / $100 +$134

Stake 5.4%

7.25

$100 returns $725

+$625 profit
Justin Gaethje wins by DEC
Solid edge

Model 12%

Bookies 6%

EV / $100 +$93

Stake 1.6%

16.00

$100 returns $1600

+$1500 profit
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision
Strong pick

Model 56%

Bookies 33%

EV / $100 +$72

Stake 8.7%

3.07

$100 returns $307

+$207 profit
Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 7%

Bookies 4%

EV / $100 +$70

Stake 0.8%

23.00

$100 returns $2300

+$2200 profit
Fight reaches Round 5
Strong pick

Model 35%

Bookies 22%

EV / $100 +$62

Stake 4.3%

4.60

$100 returns $460

+$360 profit
Justin Gaethje wins by Sub or Decision
Solid edge

Model 13%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$61

Stake 1.3%

12.50

$100 returns $1250

+$1150 profit
Ilia Topuria wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 33%

Bookies 24%

EV / $100 +$37

Stake 2.9%

4.20

$100 returns $420

+$320 profit
Ilia Topuria wins in R4+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 33%

Bookies 24%

EV / $100 +$34

Stake 2.8%

4.10

$100 returns $410

+$310 profit
Under 2.5 rounds
Strong pick

Model 59%

Bookies 45%

EV / $100 +$31

Stake 6.4%

2.20

$100 returns $220

+$120 profit
Fight reaches Round 4
Strong pick

Model 41%

Bookies 33%

EV / $100 +$25

Stake 3.0%

3.07

$100 returns $307

+$207 profit

Ciryl Gane

13-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.88

63.7% | 36.3%

Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 10:30 AM AEST

Alex Pereira

13-3-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.92

▼

Model Favourite

Ciryl Gane

63.7 %

050100

90% CI · 53 – 75 · σ 0.055 · High

Why this pick

Ciryl Gane eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
Alex Pereira lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
Alex Pereira finishes by KO 44% more often
Alex Pereira out-volumes opponents at 17.9 sig/min vs Ciryl Gane's 16.7
Ciryl Gane has never been finished in 13 fights

Method Breakdown

Gane Pereira

KO/TKO 18.2

13.5

Submission 7.9

0.8

Decision 37.6

22.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Gane

Ciryl Gane eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Pereira

Alex Pereira lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Pereira

Alex Pereira finishes by KO 44% more often
04 Win streak favours Pereira

Alex Pereira rides a 1-fight longer win streak
05 Takedown volume favours Gane

Ciryl Gane hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute
06 Finish rate favours Pereira

Alex Pereira finishes 21% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 11 flagged · 78 markets analysed

Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 31%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$170

Stake 5.5%

8.75

$100 returns $875

+$775 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$123

Stake 3.5%

9.75

$100 returns $975

+$875 profit
Fight goes to decision
Strong pick

Model 60%

Bookies 33%

EV / $100 +$82

Stake 10.0%

3.05

$100 returns $305

+$205 profit
Alex Pereira wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 22%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$76

Stake 2.7%

8.00

$100 returns $800

+$700 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 38%

Bookies 22%

EV / $100 +$69

Stake 5.0%

4.50

$100 returns $450

+$350 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 46%

Bookies 30%

EV / $100 +$52

Stake 5.6%

3.35

$100 returns $335

+$235 profit
Fight reaches Round 5
Strong pick

Model 60%

Bookies 40%

EV / $100 +$51

Stake 8.3%

2.53

$100 returns $253

+$153 profit
Alex Pereira wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 16%

EV / $100 +$43

Stake 2.0%

6.25

$100 returns $625

+$525 profit
Ciryl Gane wins in R4+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 38%

Bookies 31%

EV / $100 +$24

Stake 2.6%

3.25

$100 returns $325

+$225 profit
Fight reaches Round 4
Strong pick

Model 60%

Bookies 49%

EV / $100 +$22

Stake 5.3%

2.05

$100 returns $205

+$105 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 56%

Bookies 47%

EV / $100 +$18

Stake 4.1%

2.12

$100 returns $212

+$112 profit

Aiemann Zahabi

14-2-0 MMA Orthodox 6-fight win streak

SB 4.05

38.8% | 61.2%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 9:45 AM AEST

Sean O'Malley

19-3-0 Switch Stance 1 win

SB 1.23

▼

Model Favourite

Sean O'Malley

61.2 %

050100

90% CI · 48 – 75 · σ 0.068 · High

Why this pick

Sean O'Malley eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
Sean O'Malley lands 4.4 more sig strikes per minute
Aiemann Zahabi rides a 5-fight longer win streak
Aiemann Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak (Sean O'Malley: 1)
Sean O'Malley out-volumes opponents at 18.0 sig/min vs Aiemann Zahabi's 13.6

Method Breakdown

Zahabi O'Malley

KO/TKO 6.9

24.3

Submission 0.0

0.6

Decision 31.8

36.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours O'Malley

Sean O'Malley eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours O'Malley

Sean O'Malley lands 4.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Zahabi

Aiemann Zahabi rides a 5-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours O'Malley

Sean O'Malley finishes 31% more of their wins
05 KO rate favours O'Malley

Sean O'Malley finishes by KO 24% more often
06 Takedown defence favours Zahabi

Aiemann Zahabi stuffs 24% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Michael Chandler

23-10-0 Wrestler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

SB 4.40

25.2% | 74.8%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 9:15 AM AEST

Mauricio Ruffy

13-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.20

▼

Model Favourite

Mauricio Ruffy

74.8 %

050100

90% CI · 19 – 100 · σ 0.092 · Medium

Why this pick

Mauricio Ruffy eats 11.7 fewer strikes per minute
Michael Chandler lands 8.8 more sig strikes per minute
Michael Chandler hits 0.48 more takedowns per minute
Michael Chandler out-volumes opponents at 16.9 sig/min vs Mauricio Ruffy's 8.1
Mauricio Ruffy KOs 60% of opponents — Michael Chandler has been KO'd in 29% of losses

Method Breakdown

Chandler Ruffy

KO/TKO 5.9

39.5

Submission 4.6

5.2

Decision 14.7

30.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy eats 11.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Chandler

Michael Chandler lands 8.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Chandler

Michael Chandler hits 0.48 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Chandler

Michael Chandler controls 75% more cage time
05 Win streak favours Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy rides a 1-fight longer win streak
06 Striking defence favours Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy avoids 19% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Kyle Daukaus

17-4-0 Southpaw 2-fight win streak

SB 3.40

18.5% | 81.5%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 8:45 AM AEST

Bo Nickal

8-1-0 Wrestler Southpaw 1 win

SB 1.30

▼

Model Favourite

Bo Nickal

81.5 %

050100

90% CI · 32 – 100 · σ 0.047 · High

Why this pick

Bo Nickal lands 2.7 more sig strikes per minute
Bo Nickal eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
Kyle Daukaus rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Bo Nickal out-volumes opponents at 9.4 sig/min vs Kyle Daukaus's 6.7
Bo Nickal KOs 50% of opponents — Kyle Daukaus has been KO'd in 22% of losses

Method Breakdown

Daukaus Nickal

KO/TKO 4.3

33.0

Submission 3.4

19.2

Decision 10.8

29.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Nickal

Bo Nickal lands 2.7 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Nickal

Bo Nickal eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Daukaus

Kyle Daukaus rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Nickal

Bo Nickal finishes 28% more of their wins
05 Takedown volume favours Nickal

Bo Nickal hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute
06 KO rate favours Nickal

Bo Nickal finishes by KO 17% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Steve Garcia

19-5-0 Freestyle Southpaw 8-fight win streak

SB 2.54

57.8% | 42.2%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 8:15 AM AEST

Diego Lopes

27-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.50

▼

Model Favourite

Steve Garcia

57.8 %

050100

90% CI · 41 – 74 · σ 0.082 · Medium

Why this pick

Steve Garcia eats 10.2 fewer strikes per minute
Steve Garcia rides a 8-fight longer win streak
Diego Lopes lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
Steve Garcia rides a 8-fight win streak (Diego Lopes: 0)
Steve Garcia has never been finished in 9 fights

Method Breakdown

Garcia Lopes

KO/TKO 22.5

17.5

Submission 6.1

4.2

Decision 29.1

20.5

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Garcia

Steve Garcia eats 10.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Garcia

Steve Garcia rides a 8-fight longer win streak
03 Striking volume favours Lopes

Diego Lopes lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
04 KO rate favours Garcia

Steve Garcia finishes by KO 44% more often
05 Finish rate favours Garcia

Steve Garcia finishes 33% more of their wins
06 Striking defence favours Garcia

Steve Garcia avoids 18% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Derrick Lewis

29-13-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 loss

SB 3.35

20.4% | 79.6%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 8:00 AM AEST

Josh Hokit

9-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 1.30

▼

Model Favourite

Josh Hokit

79.6 %

050100

90% CI · 28 – 100 · σ 0.101 · Medium

Why this pick

Derrick Lewis eats 8.3 fewer strikes per minute
Josh Hokit lands 12.9 more sig strikes per minute
Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Josh Hokit out-volumes opponents at 20.4 sig/min vs Derrick Lewis's 7.6
Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight win streak (Derrick Lewis: 0)

Method Breakdown

Lewis Hokit

KO/TKO 5.2

60.4

Submission 2.2

0.7

Decision 13.0

18.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Lewis

Derrick Lewis eats 8.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Hokit

Josh Hokit lands 12.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Hokit

Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Lewis

Derrick Lewis finishes 17% more of their wins
05 KO durability favours Hokit

Josh Hokit has been KO'd 26% less often
06 Takedown defence favours Hokit

Josh Hokit stuffs 23% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

2026

JUN

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

Kyoji Horiguchi

36-5-0 Orthodox 5-fight win streak

46.2% | 53.8%

Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Manel Kape

22-7-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Manel Kape

53.8 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 65 · σ 0.055 · High

Why this pick

Kyoji Horiguchi eats 4.4 fewer strikes per minute
Manel Kape lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 5-fight win streak (Manel Kape: 3)
Manel Kape out-volumes opponents at 13.6 sig/min vs Kyoji Horiguchi's 11.8

Method Breakdown

Horiguchi Kape

KO/TKO 10.5

26.1

Submission 6.2

4.4

Decision 29.5

23.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi eats 4.4 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Kape

Manel Kape lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute
05 Control time favours Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi controls 57% more cage time
06 KO rate favours Kape

Manel Kape finishes by KO 30% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Allan Nascimento

22-6-0 Striker Orthodox 4-fight win streak

56.7% | 43.3%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Mitch Raposo

10-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Allan Nascimento

56.7 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 70 · σ 0.065 · High

Why this pick

Allan Nascimento eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
Allan Nascimento rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Mitch Raposo lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
Allan Nascimento rides a 4-fight win streak (Mitch Raposo: 1)
Allan Nascimento has never been finished in 5 fights

Method Breakdown

Nascimento Raposo

KO/TKO 7.5

9.7

Submission 21.1

4.9

Decision 28.0

28.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento rides a 3-fight longer win streak
03 Striking volume favours Raposo

Mitch Raposo lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
04 Control time favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento controls 81% more cage time
05 Finish rate favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento finishes 40% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento taps opponents 40% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Christian Rodriguez

12-4-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

64.2% | 35.8%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Hyder Amil

11-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Christian Rodriguez

64.2 %

050100

90% CI · 51 – 78 · σ 0.067 · High

Why this pick

Christian Rodriguez eats 6.5 fewer strikes per minute
Hyder Amil lands 11.2 more sig strikes per minute
Hyder Amil finishes by KO 60% more often
Hyder Amil out-volumes opponents at 20.7 sig/min vs Christian Rodriguez's 9.5
Christian Rodriguez has never been finished in 9 fights

Method Breakdown

Rodriguez Amil

KO/TKO 19.2

9.5

Submission 5.2

0.7

Decision 39.7

25.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez eats 6.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Amil

Hyder Amil lands 11.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Amil

Hyder Amil finishes by KO 60% more often
04 Finish rate favours Amil

Hyder Amil finishes 38% more of their wins
05 Takedown volume favours Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
06 Control time favours Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez controls 25% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Melissa Mullins

7-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss

29.2% | 70.8%

W Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Bia Mesquita

6-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Bia Mesquita

70.8 %

050100

90% CI · 54 – 87 · σ 0.083 · Medium

Why this pick

Bia Mesquita eats 12.1 fewer strikes per minute
Bia Mesquita taps opponents 100% more often
Bia Mesquita rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Bia Mesquita has never been finished in 2 fights
Bia Mesquita out-volumes opponents at 12.4 sig/min vs Melissa Mullins's 11.4

Method Breakdown

Mullins Mesquita

KO/TKO 9.9

21.2

Submission 5.8

7.2

Decision 13.5

42.4

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita eats 12.1 fewer strikes per minute
02 Submission rate favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita taps opponents 100% more often
03 Win streak favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Striking volume favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
05 KO rate favours Mullins

Melissa Mullins finishes by KO 50% more often
06 Takedown volume favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita hits 0.27 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Ion Cutelaba

20-11-1 Sambo Southpaw 1 win

28.0% | 72.0%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Navajo Stirling

9-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Navajo Stirling

72.0 %

050100

90% CI · 55 – 89 · σ 0.085 · Medium

Why this pick

Navajo Stirling lands 7.7 more sig strikes per minute
Navajo Stirling rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Ion Cutelaba hits 0.36 more takedowns per minute
Navajo Stirling out-volumes opponents at 17.4 sig/min vs Ion Cutelaba's 9.7
Navajo Stirling rides a 4-fight win streak (Ion Cutelaba: 1)

Method Breakdown

Cutelaba Stirling

KO/TKO 6.6

39.6

Submission 5.1

5.2

Decision 16.4

27.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Stirling

Navajo Stirling lands 7.7 more sig strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Stirling

Navajo Stirling rides a 3-fight longer win streak
03 Takedown volume favours Cutelaba

Ion Cutelaba hits 0.36 more takedowns per minute
04 Finish rate favours Cutelaba

Ion Cutelaba finishes 40% more of their wins
05 Strikes absorbed favours Stirling

Navajo Stirling eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
06 Durability favours Stirling

Navajo Stirling has been finished 35% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Kevin Borjas

10-5-0 Orthodox 1 loss

13.2% | 86.8%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Andre Lima

11-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 3-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Andre Lima

86.8 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 100 · σ 0.061 · High

Why this pick

Andre Lima eats 11.7 fewer strikes per minute
Andre Lima rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Andre Lima lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
Andre Lima rides a 3-fight win streak (Kevin Borjas: 0)
Andre Lima out-volumes opponents at 13.5 sig/min vs Kevin Borjas's 12.4

Method Breakdown

Borjas Lima

KO/TKO 4.1

15.2

Submission 1.3

10.0

Decision 7.8

61.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Lima

Andre Lima eats 11.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Lima

Andre Lima rides a 3-fight longer win streak
03 Striking volume favours Lima

Andre Lima lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
04 Control time favours Lima

Andre Lima controls 104% more cage time
05 Takedown volume favours Lima

Andre Lima hits 0.31 more takedowns per minute
06 KO rate favours Borjas

Kevin Borjas finishes by KO 50% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

2026

JUN

predictions soon

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan

Bouts

Rafael Fiziev

13-5-0 Muay Thai Switch 1 loss

— | —

Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST

Manuel Torres

17-3-0 MMA Switch 2-fight win streak

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Fiziev	Torres
Career record	13-5-0	17-3-0
Last 3 win %	33%	67%
Finish rate	50%	100%
KO/TKO rate	50%	83%
Sub rate	0%	17%
Sig strikes / min ↑	15.2	6.7

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

Michel Pereira

32-14-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win

— | —

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST

Shara Magomedov

16-1-0 Orthodox 1 win

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Pereira	Magomedov
Career record	32-14-0	16-1-0
Last 3 win %	33%	67%
Finish rate	50%	33%
KO/TKO rate	29%	33%
Sub rate	21%	0%
Sig strikes / min ↑	14.0	17.9

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

TBA

— | —

3 rds ⏱ Sat 27 Jun · 11:00 PM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

UFC 329

2026

JUL

predictions soon

UFC 329

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

TBA

— | —

5 rds ⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 8:00 AM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

TBA

— | —

3 rds ⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 6:00 AM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

TBA

— | —

3 rds ⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 8:00 AM AEST

Gable Steveson

0-0-0 nan

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	TBA	Steveson
Career record	—	0-0-0
Last 3 win %	—	—
Finish rate	—	—
KO/TKO rate	—	—
Sub rate	—	—
Sig strikes / min ↑	—	—

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

UFC Fight Night: Belgrade

2026

AUG

predictions soon

UFC Fight Night: Belgrade

Bouts

TBA

— | —

5 rds ⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 5:00 AM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

TBA

— | —

3 rds ⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 2:00 AM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

⟁ Top Value Bets — Stake Allocation

Total stake $

Stake	Bet	Fight	Event	Odds	Model	If wins

Stakes are split by edge: bigger on bets where the model has more conviction. Each fight is capped at 5 legs, and bets that can't all win in the same outcome (e.g. "KO round 1" + "fight goes to decision") are filtered. Best case = the single luckiest outcome per fight. Worst case = every bet loses.

Fight	Event	Bet	Model %	SB Odds	Win Payout / $100	Expected Profit / $100
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Sean Strickland wins by finish in Round 1	10%	41.00	+$4000	+$325
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1	31%	8.75	+$775	+$170
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	20%	13.00	+$1200	+$163
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Sean Strickland wins by finish in Round 3	6%	41.00	+$4000	+$152
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 1	24%	9.75	+$875	+$139
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Fight goes to Decision	32%	7.25	+$625	+$134
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 2	23%	9.75	+$875	+$123
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 2	17%	13.00	+$1200	+$122
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Justin Gaethje wins by DEC	12%	16.00	+$1500	+$93
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Fight goes to decision	60%	3.05	+$205	+$82
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Alex Pereira wins by DEC	22%	8.00	+$700	+$76
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	3.07	+$207	+$72
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Khamzat Chimaev wins by finish in Round 3	20%	8.75	+$775	+$71
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 1	7%	23.00	+$2200	+$70
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ciryl Gane wins by DEC	38%	4.50	+$350	+$69
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	9%	19.00	+$1800	+$65
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Joshua Van wins by DEC	27%	6.00	+$500	+$64
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Fight reaches Round 5	35%	4.60	+$360	+$62
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Justin Gaethje wins by Sub or Decision	13%	12.50	+$1150	+$61
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ciryl Gane wins by Sub or Decision	46%	3.35	+$235	+$52
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 1	23%	6.50	+$550	+$51
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Fight reaches Round 5	60%	2.53	+$153	+$51
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 2	16%	9.25	+$825	+$50
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Alex Pereira wins by Sub or Decision	23%	6.25	+$525	+$43
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Joshua Van wins by Sub or Decision	28%	5.10	+$410	+$42
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3	22%	6.50	+$550	+$41
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO	25%	5.60	+$460	+$39
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO or Decision	54%	2.55	+$155	+$38
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ilia Topuria wins by Sub or Decision	33%	4.20	+$320	+$37
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ilia Topuria wins in R4+ or by Decision	33%	4.10	+$310	+$34
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	65%	2.06	+$106	+$34
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Fight ends by KO/TKO	32%	4.10	+$310	+$33
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	7.00	+$600	+$33
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Under 2.5 rounds	59%	2.20	+$120	+$31
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Joshua Van wins by KO or Decision	51%	2.55	+$155	+$29
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3	23%	5.50	+$450	+$28
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Khamzat Chimaev wins by finish in Round 1	33%	3.90	+$290	+$28
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Khamzat Chimaev wins by DEC	29%	4.30	+$330	+$25
↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Fight reaches Round 4	41%	3.07	+$207	+$25
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Fight goes to decision	43%	2.86	+$186	+$24
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ciryl Gane wins in R4+ or by Decision	38%	3.25	+$225	+$24
↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Fight goes to decision	49%	2.53	+$153	+$23
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Fight reaches Round 4	60%	2.05	+$105	+$22
↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje	Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Decision	56%	2.12	+$112	+$18
↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland	Khamzat Chimaev wins in R4+ or by Decision	39%	3.00	+$200	+$16

Every bet where our model's probability exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability by ≥ 3%, sorted by EV.

⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

2026-05-02

Carlos Prates

23-7-0

Winner

Carlos Prates

KO/TKO · R3

Jack Della Maddalena

18-3-0

▼

Actual outcome

Carlos Prates by KO/TKO in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Carlos Prates	Jack Della Maddalena
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	104/193	41/76
Total strikes landed	104	53
Knockdowns	3	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	2/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:42	1:13

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Jack Della Maddalena wins by finish in Round 1 value	32%	10.00	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by finish in Round 1 value	32%	7.75	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1 value	38%	4.80	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	9.25	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Jack Della Maddalena wins by finish in Round 1 value	32%	10.00	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by finish in Round 1 value	32%	7.75	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1 value	38%	4.80	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	9.25	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3 value	58%	2.79	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by DEC value	21%	6.50	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by Sub or Decision value	25%	5.40	✗ lost
Finish before Round 4 value	58%	2.02	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2 value	21%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision value	42%	2.78	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins	49%	1.98	✗ lost
Finish before Round 5	58%	1.64	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO or Decision	44%	2.12	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by Sub or Decision	25%	3.70	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins	50%	1.86	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by DEC	21%	4.50	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.93	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 5	42%	2.17	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO or Sub	28%	3.15	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO/TKO	24%	3.75	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	42%	2.02	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	42%	2.00	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by SUB	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	58%	1.41	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	50%	1.58	✓ won
Carlos Prates wins in R4+ or by Decision	21%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	62%	1.17	✓ won
Carlos Prates wins by KO or Sub	30%	2.40	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by SUB	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by KO/TKO	26%	2.60	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins in R4+ or by Decision	20%	3.20	✗ lost

Beneil Dariush

23-7-1

Winner

Quillan Salkilld

KO/TKO · R1

Quillan Salkilld

11-1-0

▼

Actual outcome

Quillan Salkilld by KO/TKO in R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Beneil Dariush	Quillan Salkilld
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/9	12/19
Total strikes landed	4	15
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/5	0/2
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:32	0:20

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Beneil Dariush wins by finish in Round 1 value	27%	10.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Sub or Decision value	47%	4.10	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by DEC value	27%	7.00	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by finish in Round 2 value	15%	12.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by SUB value	20%	8.00	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Beneil Dariush wins by finish in Round 1 value	27%	10.00	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins	50%	4.10	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Sub or Decision value	47%	4.10	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by DEC value	27%	7.00	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by finish in Round 2 value	15%	12.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by SUB value	20%	8.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins in R3+ or by Decision value	38%	4.20	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins in R3+ or by Decision value	23%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision value	35%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	25%	5.60	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 2 value	25%	5.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision value	46%	2.67	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds value	65%	1.83	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2 value	65%	1.71	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 1	45%	2.37	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by finish in Round 3	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins	83%	1.24	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 3	13%	7.50	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO or Decision	63%	1.41	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	19%	4.40	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO or Sub	56%	1.45	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.22	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	55%	1.44	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by Sub or Decision	13%	5.80	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	35%	2.06	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by DEC	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by SUB	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	35%	1.83	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO	36%	1.71	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by KO or Decision	12%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	40%	1.49	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by KO or Sub	9%	6.25	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by KO/TKO	4%	9.50	✗ lost

Tim Elliott

22-13-1

Winner

Steve Erceg

Decision (U) · R3

Steve Erceg

13-4-0

▼

Actual outcome

Steve Erceg by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Tim Elliott	Steve Erceg
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	90/261	136/254
Total strikes landed	93	136
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/11	1/3
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:34	0:29

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 1 value	34%	8.50	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by finish in Round 1 value	25%	8.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 2 value	22%	9.50	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by finish in Round 2 value	16%	10.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO value	15%	10.00	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 1 value	34%	8.50	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by finish in Round 1 value	25%	8.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 2 value	22%	9.50	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by finish in Round 2 value	16%	10.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO value	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins in R3+ or by Decision value	37%	3.70	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins	50%	2.51	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 3	12%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	21%	5.75	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO or Decision value	61%	1.92	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins	67%	1.53	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	68%	1.52	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins by DEC	46%	2.25	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins by DEC	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins in R3+ or by Decision	49%	2.00	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins by finish in Round 3	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	73%	1.31	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	84%	1.14	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	68%	1.40	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins by KO or Decision	28%	3.35	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO or Sub	22%	4.25	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by Sub or Decision	52%	1.72	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	32%	2.75	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	27%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	16%	5.30	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by Sub or Decision	27%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	32%	2.41	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by KO/TKO	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by KO or Sub	11%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	3.75	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by SUB	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by SUB	6%	6.25	✗ lost

Marwan Rahiki

9-0-0

Winner

Marwan Rahiki

KO/TKO · R1

Ollie Schmid

4-2-0

▼

Actual outcome

Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO in R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Marwan Rahiki	Ollie Schmid
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	22/40	9/30
Total strikes landed	22	9
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:04	0:00

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Ollie Schmid wins by SUB value	13%	21.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by KO or Sub value	26%	7.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 1 value	17%	10.50	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by DEC value	20%	8.25	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by Sub or Decision value	13%	11.00	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Ollie Schmid wins by SUB value	13%	21.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by KO or Sub value	26%	7.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 1 value	17%	10.50	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by DEC value	20%	8.25	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins	26%	6.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by Sub or Decision value	13%	11.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds value	80%	1.53	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins by KO/TKO	13%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	20%	5.80	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 2	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	29%	3.60	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	80%	1.28	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	51%	1.93	✓ won
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO or Decision	68%	1.43	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	80%	1.13	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	49%	1.81	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	61%	1.45	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins by KO or Decision	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by Sub or Decision	26%	3.20	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by finish in Round 2	18%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	20%	4.10	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.68	✓ won
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO or Sub	54%	1.26	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	20%	3.40	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by finish in Round 1	32%	2.10	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins in R3+ or by Decision	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins	50%	1.13	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	20%	2.37	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins in R3+ or by Decision	10%	4.50	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by SUB	6%	4.80	✗ lost

Shamil Gaziev

14-2-0

Winner

Brando Peričić

KO/TKO · R2

Brando Peričić

6-1-0

▼

Actual outcome

Brando Peričić by KO/TKO in R2

Actual Fight Stats

	Shamil Gaziev	Brando Peričić
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	41/100	89/163
Total strikes landed	51	100
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/2	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	3:36	0:00

Tai Tuivasa

15-9-0

Winner

Louie Sutherland

Decision (U) · R3

Louie Sutherland

10-5-0

▼

Actual outcome

Louie Sutherland by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Tai Tuivasa	Louie Sutherland
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	13/22	21/25
Total strikes landed	27	111
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	5/11
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:42	11:45

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 1 value	30%	8.50	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	9.50	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by DEC value	24%	6.50	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins by Sub or Decision value	34%	4.70	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission value	15%	10.00	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 1 value	30%	8.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by SUB	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	9.50	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by DEC value	24%	6.50	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins by Sub or Decision value	34%	4.70	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission value	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins	52%	2.80	✓ won
Fight goes to decision value	44%	3.32	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by Sub or Decision value	25%	5.70	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by KO or Decision value	43%	3.25	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins in R3+ or by Decision value	25%	4.90	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by DEC value	19%	6.25	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by KO or Sub value	28%	4.25	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by SUB	9%	12.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	56%	2.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	49%	2.26	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins by KO/TKO	18%	5.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	67%	1.47	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins in R3+ or by Decision	24%	4.00	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by finish in Round 1	29%	3.20	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by finish in Round 2	16%	5.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	33%	2.57	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	51%	1.59	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	44%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.30	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins	50%	1.44	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	18%	3.90	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO or Decision	43%	1.47	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	42%	1.43	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.78	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 3	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO	23%	1.84	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by finish in Round 3	4%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	6.00	✗ lost

Robert Bryczek

18-6-0

Winner

Cam Rowston

Decision (U) · R3

Cam Rowston

3-0-0

▼

Actual outcome

Cam Rowston by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Robert Bryczek	Cam Rowston
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	17/37	79/150
Total strikes landed	39	125
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	3/7
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	0:05	10:10

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Cam Rowston wins by KO/TKO value	35%	6.25	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 1 value	39%	4.50	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by KO or Decision value	65%	2.65	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 1 value	27%	6.00	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins in R3+ or by Decision value	28%	5.30	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Cam Rowston wins by KO/TKO value	35%	6.25	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 1 value	39%	4.50	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by KO or Decision value	65%	2.65	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 1 value	27%	6.00	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins in R3+ or by Decision value	28%	5.30	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by DEC value	30%	4.30	✓ won
Cam Rowston wins in R3+ or by Decision value	40%	3.25	✓ won
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 2 value	21%	6.00	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 2 value	15%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision value	47%	2.71	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins	50%	2.49	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by Sub or Decision	20%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	55%	2.05	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by DEC	17%	6.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	53%	2.10	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins	72%	1.54	✓ won
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 3	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	43%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	71%	1.40	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 3	8%	12.00	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by KO or Sub	42%	2.25	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by SUB	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	29%	2.80	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	47%	1.66	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	45%	1.71	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	53%	1.43	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by Sub or Decision	37%	1.94	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	16%	4.10	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO or Decision	25%	2.55	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.25	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO or Sub	12%	3.50	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO/TKO	8%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	10%	3.05	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by SUB	7%	3.30	✗ lost

Junior Tafa

6-5-0

Winner

Junior Tafa

KO/TKO · R1

Kevin Christian

9-3-0

▼

Actual outcome

Junior Tafa by KO/TKO in R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Junior Tafa	Kevin Christian
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	21/31	13/21
Total strikes landed	22	13
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/2
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:09	0:00

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Kevin Christian wins by KO or Decision value	47%	5.25	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by KO/TKO value	30%	7.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by DEC value	17%	12.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins in R3+ or by Decision value	22%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	33%	5.25	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Kevin Christian wins by KO or Decision value	47%	5.25	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by KO/TKO value	30%	7.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by DEC value	17%	12.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins in R3+ or by Decision value	22%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	33%	5.25	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 1 value	31%	5.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 2 value	19%	8.50	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by SUB	5%	29.00	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins	55%	2.83	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Sub or Decision value	21%	7.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by DEC value	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision value	39%	3.45	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by KO or Sub value	38%	3.30	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2 value	63%	1.90	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins in R3+ or by Decision	20%	5.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	67%	1.57	✓ won
Kevin Christian wins by Sub or Decision	25%	3.90	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 2	18%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	24%	3.80	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	61%	1.28	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	67%	1.14	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	53%	1.44	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	33%	2.25	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 1	28%	2.62	✓ won
Junior Tafa wins	50%	1.43	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	37%	1.83	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	14%	4.60	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Decision	39%	1.47	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	8.50	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.65	✓ won
Kevin Christian wins by SUB	9%	5.20	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO	23%	1.72	✓ won

Gerald Meerschaert

37-21-0

Winner

Jacob Malkoun

Decision (U) · R3

Jacob Malkoun

9-3-0

▼

Actual outcome

Jacob Malkoun by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Gerald Meerschaert	Jacob Malkoun
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	32/76	36/82
Total strikes landed	53	54
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/3	3/3
Submission attempts	3	0
Control time	4:23	2:17

Vince Morales

16-10-0

Winner

Colby Thicknesse

Decision (U) · R3

Colby Thicknesse

8-1-0

▼

Actual outcome

Colby Thicknesse by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Vince Morales	Colby Thicknesse
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	48/121	46/117
Total strikes landed	56	57
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/2	0/6
Submission attempts	0	4
Control time	3:34	3:01

Wes Schultz

8-3-0

Winner

Wes Schultz

SUB · R3

Ben Johnston

0-1-0

▼

Actual outcome

Wes Schultz by Submission in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Wes Schultz	Ben Johnston
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	12/17	12/16
Total strikes landed	22	38
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/3	2/2
Submission attempts	5	0
Control time	1:37	9:16

Themba Gorimbo

14-6-0

Winner

Jonathan Micallef

Decision (S) · R3

Jonathan Micallef

9-1-0

▼

Actual outcome

Jonathan Micallef by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Themba Gorimbo	Jonathan Micallef
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	39/90	55/112
Total strikes landed	74	83
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/5	1/4
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	5:25	3:26

Dom Mar Fan

9-2-0

Winner

Kody Steele

SUB · R1

Kody Steele

7-1-0

▼

Actual outcome

Kody Steele by Submission in R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Dom Mar Fan	Kody Steele
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	1/2	1/1
Total strikes landed	3	19
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	1/1
Submission attempts	0	1
Control time	0:28	1:44

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

2026-04-25

Aljamain Sterling

25-5-0

Winner

Aljamain Sterling

Decision (U) · R5

Youssef Zalal

18-5-1

▼

Actual outcome

Aljamain Sterling by Decision in R5

Actual Fight Stats

	Aljamain Sterling	Youssef Zalal
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	46/89	35/65
Total strikes landed	220	61
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	6/11	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	13:49	3:59

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Aljamain Sterling wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	14.00	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by finish in Round 1 value	23%	12.50	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	15.00	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	14.00	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by SUB value	13%	12.50	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Aljamain Sterling wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	14.00	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by finish in Round 1 value	23%	12.50	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	15.00	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	14.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	65%	3.14	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins by SUB value	13%	12.50	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by finish in Round 3 value	9%	18.00	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO/TKO value	10%	16.00	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by finish in Round 3 value	9%	17.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3 value	35%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1 value	20%	7.25	✗ lost
Finish before Round 4 value	42%	3.14	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO or Decision value	41%	3.10	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by DEC	31%	3.60	✓ won
Finish before Round 5	42%	2.58	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins	50%	2.10	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins by Sub or Decision	41%	2.40	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO or Sub	24%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	42%	2.24	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	58%	1.60	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	22%	4.10	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	58%	1.53	✓ won
Aljamain Sterling wins by Sub or Decision	39%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.08	✓ won
Aljamain Sterling wins in R4+ or by Decision	29%	2.95	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins	49%	1.74	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	58%	1.46	✓ won
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO or Sub	18%	4.40	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by DEC	27%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO or Decision	38%	1.91	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins in R4+ or by Decision	28%	2.35	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO/TKO	10%	5.40	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by SUB	8%	5.60	✗ lost

Joselyne Edwards

17-6-0

Winner

Joselyne Edwards

Decision (U) · R3

Norma Dumont

13-2-0

▼

Actual outcome

Joselyne Edwards by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Joselyne Edwards	Norma Dumont
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	70/152	51/100
Total strikes landed	121	66
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/3	0/1
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:21	2:09

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Joselyne Edwards wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	12.00	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by finish in Round 1 value	23%	12.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	12.00	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by finish in Round 2 value	16%	12.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO or Decision value	46%	3.45	✓ won

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Joselyne Edwards wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	12.00	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by finish in Round 1 value	23%	12.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	12.00	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by finish in Round 2 value	16%	12.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO or Decision value	46%	3.45	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins by DEC value	37%	4.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	19%	8.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by Sub or Decision value	45%	3.35	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins	50%	2.93	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins in R3+ or by Decision value	38%	3.70	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1 value	14%	9.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	30%	4.50	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO/TKO	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3 value	25%	5.40	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by KO/TKO	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO or Sub value	18%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	30%	4.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by finish in Round 3	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by finish in Round 3	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by SUB	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	86%	1.05	✓ won
Norma Dumont wins by KO or Sub	12%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	70%	1.22	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	75%	1.13	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	70%	1.16	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins	48%	1.41	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by KO or Decision	43%	1.53	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	1.57	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by DEC	33%	1.67	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by Sub or Decision	36%	1.50	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by SUB	3%	12.00	✗ lost

Alexander Hernandez

18-8-0

Winner

Rafa Garcia

Decision (U) · R3

Rafa Garcia

18-4-0

▼

Actual outcome

Rafa Garcia by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Alexander Hernandez	Rafa Garcia
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	50/145	59/169
Total strikes landed	54	79
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	4/7
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	1:50

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 1 value	25%	9.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	10.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	9.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by KO or Decision value	54%	2.50	✓ won

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 1 value	25%	9.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	10.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	9.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by KO or Decision value	54%	2.50	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by DEC value	44%	3.05	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by Sub or Decision value	52%	2.35	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by KO/TKO	10%	11.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 3	10%	12.00	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins	52%	2.08	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins in R3+ or by Decision	39%	2.70	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	69%	1.50	✓ won
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 3	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	75%	1.33	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	86%	1.14	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	69%	1.40	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by KO or Sub	18%	5.30	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins in R3+ or by Decision	38%	2.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins	50%	1.78	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	31%	2.75	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by SUB	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	25%	3.18	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	31%	2.47	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	14%	5.20	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by Sub or Decision	28%	2.65	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by Decision	25%	2.87	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	3.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO or Decision	35%	1.82	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by SUB	7%	8.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO or Sub	13%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	9.25	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO/TKO	10%	4.60	✗ lost

Davey Grant

17-8-0

Winner

Davey Grant

Decision (U) · R3

Adrian Luna Martinetti

0-1-0

▼

Actual outcome

Davey Grant by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Davey Grant	Adrian Luna Martinetti
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	162/307	99/196
Total strikes landed	164	100
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	1/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:02	0:43

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 1 value	26%	8.00	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	9.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 1 value	25%	6.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	8.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	2.85	✓ won

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 1 value	26%	8.00	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	9.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 1 value	25%	6.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	8.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by SUB	8%	16.00	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	2.85	✓ won
Davey Grant wins by DEC value	34%	3.30	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	22%	5.10	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins	52%	2.07	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	45%	2.37	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO or Sub	24%	4.25	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO/TKO	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	38%	2.61	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins in R3+ or by Decision	33%	3.00	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 3	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	55%	1.74	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	22%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	78%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	45%	2.01	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by SUB	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	62%	1.45	✓ won
Davey Grant wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	5.80	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins	50%	1.79	✓ won
Davey Grant wins in R3+ or by Decision	31%	2.75	✓ won
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 3	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO or Decision	31%	2.70	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	55%	1.53	✓ won
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by Sub or Decision	34%	2.40	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by KO or Sub	21%	3.50	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by DEC	21%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	3.05	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by KO/TKO	13%	4.20	✗ lost

Raoni Barcelos

21-5-0

Winner

Raoni Barcelos

Decision (S) · R3

Montel Jackson

15-3-0

▼

Actual outcome

Raoni Barcelos by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Raoni Barcelos	Montel Jackson
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	21/38	35/66
Total strikes landed	33	72
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	6/18	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	7:45	0:23

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	10.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	11.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO/TKO value	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO or Decision value	44%	3.05	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO or Sub value	21%	6.25	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	10.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	11.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO/TKO value	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO or Decision value	44%	3.05	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO or Sub value	21%	6.25	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by finish in Round 1 value	21%	6.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins	50%	2.46	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by Sub or Decision value	44%	2.75	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by DEC value	34%	3.60	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 3	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	20%	5.70	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by SUB	10%	11.50	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by finish in Round 2	14%	7.50	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins in R3+ or by Decision	33%	3.25	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	2.50	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by SUB	11%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	59%	1.65	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	34%	2.81	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	20%	4.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.17	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	66%	1.40	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	41%	2.15	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	1.50	✓ won
Montel Jackson wins by Sub or Decision	35%	2.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	5.80	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by DEC	25%	2.95	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by finish in Round 3	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins in R3+ or by Decision	29%	2.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	3.20	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins	43%	1.55	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO or Decision	36%	1.72	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO or Sub	20%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO/TKO	11%	3.80	✗ lost

Ryan Spann

24-11-0

Winner

Ryan Spann

KO/TKO · R2

Marcus Buchecha

5-3-1

▼

Actual outcome

Ryan Spann by KO/TKO in R2

Actual Fight Stats

	Ryan Spann	Marcus Buchecha
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	15/27	8/13
Total strikes landed	20	8
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	1/7
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:56	1:09

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Ryan Spann wins by DEC value	21%	12.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	45%	4.80	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins in R3+ or by Decision value	26%	7.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by SUB value	22%	8.75	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Ryan Spann wins by DEC value	21%	12.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	45%	4.80	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins in R3+ or by Decision value	26%	7.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by SUB value	22%	8.75	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by DEC value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	53%	3.27	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	7.50	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2 value	73%	1.81	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO or Decision value	35%	3.60	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins	50%	2.23	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins in R3+ or by Decision	20%	5.25	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	45%	2.25	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	25%	4.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Decision	36%	2.75	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Sub	37%	2.55	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	55%	1.57	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins by finish in Round 2	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	3.90	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 3	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by Sub or Decision	31%	2.12	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	55%	1.17	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	29%	2.20	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins	38%	1.66	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	47%	1.31	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins by finish in Round 1	19%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	26%	2.25	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	27%	1.92	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by finish in Round 3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO	15%	3.35	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO or Sub	18%	2.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by SUB	7%	2.80	✗ lost

Eric McConico

11-4-1

Winner

Eric McConico

Decision (U) · R3

Rodolfo Vieira

11-5-0

▼

Actual outcome

Eric McConico by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Eric McConico	Rodolfo Vieira
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	54/102	40/70
Total strikes landed	73	58
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/2	4/15
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:51	6:24

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Eric McConico wins by finish in Round 1 value	23%	10.50	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by SUB value	6%	34.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by finish in Round 2 value	16%	12.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins in R3+ or by Decision value	29%	4.40	✓ won
Rodolfo Vieira wins by finish in Round 1 value	26%	4.50	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Eric McConico wins by finish in Round 1 value	23%	10.50	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by SUB value	6%	34.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by finish in Round 2 value	16%	12.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins	50%	3.23	✓ won
Eric McConico wins in R3+ or by Decision value	29%	4.40	✓ won
Eric McConico wins by KO or Sub	17%	7.25	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by finish in Round 3	8%	15.00	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by finish in Round 1 value	26%	4.50	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by Sub or Decision	24%	4.50	✓ won
Rodolfo Vieira wins by finish in Round 2	18%	6.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	51%	2.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	75%	1.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	32%	2.90	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO or Decision	28%	3.30	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.74	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	42%	2.21	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	46%	2.01	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	58%	1.61	✓ won
Rodolfo Vieira wins by DEC	28%	3.25	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	25%	3.70	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by Decision	18%	5.00	✓ won
Rodolfo Vieira wins by Sub or Decision	54%	1.63	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO or Decision	39%	2.25	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	17%	5.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	49%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	3.90	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins in R3+ or by Decision	32%	2.50	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO or Sub	37%	2.15	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by SUB	26%	3.05	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins	56%	1.35	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by finish in Round 3	9%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.00	✗ lost

Sedriques Dumas

10-5-0

Winner

Jackson McVey

SUB · R1

Jackson McVey

7-2-0

▼

Actual outcome

Jackson McVey by Submission in R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Sedriques Dumas	Jackson McVey
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/4	21/29
Total strikes landed	9	38
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:02	2:03

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Fight goes to Decision value	40%	4.90	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by DEC value	20%	9.50	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by DEC value	20%	9.25	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins in R3+ or by Decision value	23%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	47%	3.31	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Fight goes to Decision value	40%	4.90	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by DEC value	20%	9.50	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by DEC value	20%	9.25	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins in R3+ or by Decision value	23%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	47%	3.31	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by finish in Round 1 value	27%	5.50	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by Sub or Decision value	37%	3.90	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	8.00	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins	50%	2.57	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins in R3+ or by Decision value	22%	5.80	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO or Decision value	48%	2.55	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2 value	67%	1.76	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO or Decision value	29%	3.90	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by SUB	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	60%	1.57	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO	28%	3.35	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	40%	2.25	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by finish in Round 2	16%	5.50	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO or Sub	25%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	2.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	3.60	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by finish in Round 1	25%	2.87	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins	46%	1.51	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	60%	1.16	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	53%	1.30	✓ won
Sedriques Dumas wins by finish in Round 3	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by Sub or Decision	27%	2.55	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	33%	1.99	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by KO or Sub	34%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO/TKO	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by finish in Round 3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	23%	2.20	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by SUB	7%	3.35	✓ won

Mayra Bueno Silva

10-7-1

Winner

Michelle Montague

Decision (U) · R3

Michelle Montague

8-0-0

▼

Actual outcome

Michelle Montague by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Mayra Bueno Silva	Michelle Montague
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	26/45	42/83
Total strikes landed	34	108
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	2/6
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	1:39	10:14

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 3 value	10%	34.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 1 value	22%	13.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	15.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO/TKO value	9%	29.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO or Sub value	19%	10.00	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 3 value	10%	34.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 1 value	22%	13.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	15.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO/TKO value	9%	29.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins	50%	4.10	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO or Sub value	19%	10.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins in R3+ or by Decision value	36%	5.10	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO or Decision value	31%	5.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by Sub or Decision value	31%	4.30	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by SUB	10%	13.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 1 value	21%	6.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 2 value	18%	7.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by DEC value	21%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	65%	1.56	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	84%	1.14	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	71%	1.34	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	35%	2.62	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	65%	1.44	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins by DEC	43%	2.10	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 3	9%	9.50	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by KO or Decision	53%	1.67	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	29%	3.07	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	35%	2.33	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	6.25	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	16%	5.20	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by Sub or Decision	49%	1.44	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins by KO/TKO	10%	7.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins in R3+ or by Decision	35%	1.80	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins	49%	1.24	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	3.40	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by KO or Sub	16%	2.80	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by SUB	6%	4.25	✗ lost

Jafel Filho

17-5-0

Winner

Cody Durden

Decision (U) · R3

Cody Durden

18-10-1

▼

Actual outcome

Cody Durden by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Jafel Filho	Cody Durden
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	23/63	34/72
Total strikes landed	50	91
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/3	5/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	3:08	5:14

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Cody Durden wins	66%	5.75	✓ won
Jafel Filho wins	50%	1.14	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Cody Durden wins	66%	5.75	✓ won
Jafel Filho wins	50%	1.14	✗ lost

Lucas Brennan

11-3-0

Winner

Francis Marshall

Decision (U) · R3

Francis Marshall

10-3-0

▼

Actual outcome

Francis Marshall by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Lucas Brennan	Francis Marshall
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	9/36	33/69
Total strikes landed	20	60
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/6	2/3
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:47	6:36

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Lucas Brennan wins by KO/TKO value	14%	23.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 1 value	27%	11.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by KO or Decision value	33%	7.50	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 3 value	7%	34.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	13.00	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Lucas Brennan wins by KO/TKO value	14%	23.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 1 value	27%	11.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins	50%	5.30	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by KO or Decision value	33%	7.50	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 3 value	7%	34.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	13.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins in R3+ or by Decision value	26%	8.25	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by KO or Sub value	23%	8.25	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by DEC value	19%	10.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by Sub or Decision value	27%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	28%	4.00	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by finish in Round 1	29%	3.75	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	30%	3.32	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	49%	2.00	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by finish in Round 2	18%	5.50	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by SUB	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	44%	2.13	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	70%	1.30	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	51%	1.74	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	19%	4.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	29%	2.65	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by Sub or Decision	45%	1.50	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by SUB	20%	3.35	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by KO or Sub	33%	1.99	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by finish in Round 3	7%	9.50	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by Decision	25%	2.62	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by KO or Decision	38%	1.71	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins	53%	1.16	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.25	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by KO/TKO	13%	4.50	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	2.15	✓ won

Max Griffin

20-13-0

Winner

Victor Valenzuela

Decision (U) · R3

Victor Valenzuela

0-0-0

▼

Actual outcome

Victor Valenzuela by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Max Griffin	Victor Valenzuela
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	40/89	53/117
Total strikes landed	43	53
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	4/9	1/2
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	1:03	0:36

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Max Griffin wins by SUB value	10%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	18%	12.00	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by finish in Round 1 value	28%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1 value	37%	4.75	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO or Sub value	31%	5.00	✗ lost

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Max Griffin wins by finish in Round 1	37%	9.50	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by SUB value	10%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	18%	12.00	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by finish in Round 1 value	28%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1 value	37%	4.75	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by SUB	8%	19.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO or Sub value	31%	5.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by Sub or Decision value	46%	3.15	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3 value	50%	2.83	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by finish in Round 2 value	13%	10.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO or Decision value	57%	2.25	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by DEC value	37%	3.45	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	2.50	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO/TKO value	21%	5.80	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins	50%	2.17	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	50%	2.16	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by finish in Round 2	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	50%	1.65	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	32%	2.45	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	5.90	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	1.50	✓ won
Max Griffin wins in R3+ or by Decision	25%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	1.17	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	50%	1.39	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO or Sub	19%	3.45	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins	38%	1.69	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by Sub or Decision	22%	2.70	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins in R3+ or by Decision	19%	2.55	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO/TKO	11%	4.00	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO or Decision	25%	1.78	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by DEC	14%	3.05	✓ won

Julia Polastri

14-6-0

Winner

Talita Alencar

Decision (U) · R3

Talita Alencar

8-1-1

▼

Actual outcome

Talita Alencar by Decision in R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Julia Polastri	Talita Alencar
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	78/111	60/195
Total strikes landed	87	80
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	3/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:04	2:27

Model Prediction vs Actual Result

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Talita Alencar wins by finish in Round 1 value	18%	12.00	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by finish in Round 2 value	14%	15.00	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by finish in Round 1 value	21%	8.50	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by SUB value	9%	19.00	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by Decision value	35%	4.50	✓ won

Outcome	Model said	Odds	Result
Talita Alencar wins by finish in Round 1 value	18%	12.00	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by finish in Round 2 value	14%	15.00	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by finish in Round 1 value	21%	8.50	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by SUB value	9%	19.00	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by Decision value	35%	4.50	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins by KO or Decision value	38%	4.00	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins by finish in Round 3 value	10%	15.00	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by finish in Round 2 value	17%	8.50	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	3.30	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins	43%	3.21	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission value	16%	7.75	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins in R3+ or by Decision value	32%	3.90	✓ won
Julia Polastri wins by finish in Round 3	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	34%	3.20	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	26%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	14%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	34%	2.92	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by KO/TKO	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by KO or Sub	11%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	86%	1.08	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	66%	1.37	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	74%	1.22	✓ won
Julia Polastri wins by KO or Sub	23%	3.90	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	66%	1.30	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by SUB	8%	11.00	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by Sub or Decision	40%	1.84	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins	50%	1.35	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by KO/TKO	14%	4.50	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins in R3+ or by Decision	37%	1.73	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by KO or Decision	45%	1.41	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by Decision	31%	2.00	✗ lost