Updated 2026-09-09 11:22 AEST
78
Bouts
15
Events
11
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Jean Silva
Silva
Main Event
51%
Model Leans Silva
2026-09-12
Jose Delgado
Delgado
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026
12
SEP
⚡ Next Event

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, USA
13
Bouts
4
Value Bouts
Jean Silva
Jean Silva
Brazil 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox
SB 1.23
51% | 49%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 9:45 AM AEST
Jose Delgado
Jose Delgado
United States 10-2-0 Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
SB 4.20
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Jean Silva
51.5 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.078 · Medium
Why this pick
  • the case against Jose Delgado rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Jose Delgado out-volumes opponents at 6.0 sig/min vs Jean Silva's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Silva Delgado
KO/TKO 5.2
26.6
Submission 13.1
5.5
Decision 33.3
16.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
17
R2
13
R3
8
R4
5
R5
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Silva Delgado
Str/min 0.0
6.0
Sig Acc 0%
55%
Str Def 0%
53%
TD/min 0.00
0.04
Finish 0%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
43
SilvaDelgado
Combined 84 20–222
Takedowns
0.8
0.0
SilvaDelgado
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 3.2 of 5 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado rides a 2-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Jose Delgado wins
    Strong edge
    Model 49%
    Bookies 24%
    EV / $100 +$104
    Stake 8.1%
    4.20
    $81 returns $340
    +$259 profit
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno
Mexico 23-10-2 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.10
50% | 50%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:15 AM AEST
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales
United States 15-2-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
SB 1.75
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Brandon Moreno
50.4 %
050100
CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.103 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (20 vs 5)
Method Breakdown
Moreno Morales
KO/TKO 15.4
0.1
Submission 13.2
9.6
Decision 21.8
39.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
6
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moreno Morales
Str/min 3.8
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
41%
Str Def 60%
58%
TD/min 0.09
0.08
Finish 35%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
35
MorenoMorales
Combined 74 19–131
Takedowns
0.6
0.5
MorenoMorales
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Morales

    Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Morales

    Joseph Morales rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales finishes 45% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales taps opponents 45% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen
United States 10-0-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.59
52% | 48%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:45 AM AEST
Marwan Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki
Morocco 9-0-0 Striker nan 2-fight win streak
SB 2.37
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Tommy McMillen
52.4 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.136 · Low
Why this pick
  • Tommy McMillen lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen avoids 5% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Marwan Rahiki finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Tommy McMillen out-volumes opponents at 15.3 sig/min vs Marwan Rahiki's 8.8
Method Breakdown
McMillen Rahiki
KO/TKO 16.7
36.9
Submission 4.2
2.6
Decision 31.5
8.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
41
R1
19
R2
4
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McMillen Rahiki
Str/min 15.3
8.8
Sig Acc 41%
55%
Str Def 63%
59%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
35
McMillenRahiki
Combined 63 16–157
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
McMillenRahiki
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki finishes by KO 18% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki is 14% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen avoids 5% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Marwan Rahiki wins
    Strong edge
    Model 48%
    Bookies 42%
    EV / $100 +$13
    Stake 2.4%
    2.37
    $24 returns $57
    +$33 profit
Alexa Grasso
Alexa Grasso
Mexico 17-5-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.89
35% | 65%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:15 AM AEST
Manon Fiorot
Manon Fiorot
France 13-2-0 Karate Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.42
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Manon Fiorot
64.9 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.081 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often
  • Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often
  • Manon Fiorot out-volumes opponents at 5.7 sig/min vs Alexa Grasso's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Grasso Fiorot
KO/TKO 3.7
14.9
Submission 1.2
3.8
Decision 30.2
46.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
7
R2
5
R3
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Grasso Fiorot
Str/min 4.1
5.7
Sig Acc 41%
42%
Str Def 59%
67%
TD/min 0.03
0.07
Finish 27%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
64
70
GrassoFiorot
Combined 136 24–189
Takedowns
0.0
0.3
GrassoFiorot
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 77% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Grasso

    Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes 7% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes
United States 19-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.64
35% | 65%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:45 AM AEST
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Dominican Republic 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.49
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Waldo Cortes Acosta
64.5 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.090 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Blaydes Acosta
KO/TKO 9.6
39.0
Submission 0.1
3.1
Decision 25.7
22.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
18
R2
9
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blaydes Acosta
Str/min 4.2
5.2
Sig Acc 52%
49%
Str Def 54%
55%
TD/min 0.34
0.03
Finish 62%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
50
48
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 113 23–173
Takedowns
1.1
0.0
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 1.0 0.0–6.1
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes hits 0.31 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Finish rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes by KO 23% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Dan Ige
Dan Ige
United States 19-10-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
SB 3.57
23% | 77%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:15 AM AEST
David Martinez
David Martinez
Mexico 14-1-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.30
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
David Martinez
76.7 %
050100
CI · 47 – 98 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • David Martinez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • David Martinez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • David Martinez stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Dan Ige finishes 6% more of their wins
  • David Martinez rides a 3-fight win streak (Dan Ige: 0)
Method Breakdown
Ige Martinez
KO/TKO 5.6
25.7
Submission 2.8
3.5
Decision 14.9
47.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
11
R2
6
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ige Martinez
Str/min 3.6
4.1
Sig Acc 46%
40%
Str Def 56%
70%
TD/min 0.05
0.05
Finish 35%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
59
IgeMartinez
Combined 97 23–151
Takedowns
0.2
0.4
IgeMartinez
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Martinez

    David Martinez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Martinez

    David Martinez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Martinez

    David Martinez stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Striking volume favours Martinez

    David Martinez lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Martinez

    David Martinez avoids 14% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ige

    Dan Ige finishes 6% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Tim Elliott
Tim Elliott
United States 22-14-1 Freestyle Southpaw 1 loss
SB 2.57
30% | 70%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6:40 AM AEST
Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez
Mexico 13-6-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.51
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Edgar Chairez
70.1 %
050100
CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often
  • Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight win streak (Tim Elliott: 0)
Method Breakdown
Elliott Chairez
KO/TKO 1.6
13.0
Submission 4.0
26.4
Decision 24.3
30.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
12
R2
10
R3
55
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elliott Chairez
Str/min 3.5
3.9
Sig Acc 43%
48%
Str Def 56%
45%
TD/min 0.24
0.00
Finish 36%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
41
ElliottChairez
Combined 87 23–167
Takedowns
1.7
0.1
ElliottChairez
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott avoids 11% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Muslim Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov
Russia 22-6-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 4.95
25% | 75%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6:15 AM AEST
Ignacio Bahamondes
Ignacio Bahamondes
Chile 17-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.18
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Ignacio Bahamondes
74.5 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.096 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ignacio Bahamondes lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ignacio Bahamondes taps opponents 20% more often
  • the case against Muslim Salikhov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ignacio Bahamondes out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Muslim Salikhov's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Salikhov Bahamondes
KO/TKO 9.0
47.0
Submission 1.2
3.7
Decision 15.3
23.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
18
R2
10
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Salikhov Bahamondes
Str/min 3.4
5.8
Sig Acc 50%
46%
Str Def 62%
55%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 64%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
49
SalikhovBahamondes
Combined 99 18–151
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
SalikhovBahamondes
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bahamondes

    Ignacio Bahamondes lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Bahamondes

    Ignacio Bahamondes taps opponents 20% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Muslim Salikhov wins
    Solid edge
    Model 26%
    Bookies 20%
    EV / $100 +$26
    Stake 1.7%
    4.95
    $17 returns $84
    +$67 profit
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.13
84% | 16%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 5:45 AM AEST
Djorden Santos
Djorden Santos
Brazil 11-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 6.05
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
83.6 %
050100
CI · 54 – 98 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 6.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 100% more often
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes 67% more of their wins
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.0 sig/min vs Djorden Santos's 7.0
Method Breakdown
Belgaroui Santos
KO/TKO 41.3
5.4
Submission 7.0
2.8
Decision 35.3
8.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
9
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Belgaroui Santos
Str/min 8.0
7.0
Sig Acc 67%
40%
Str Def 71%
48%
TD/min 0.04
0.02
Finish 100%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
45
20
BelgarouiSantos
Combined 73 18–151
Takedowns
0.0
0.5
BelgarouiSantos
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 6.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 100% more often

  • 03 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 67% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui is 27% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Drakkar Klose
Drakkar Klose
United States 16-3-1 Orthodox 1 win
SB 4.75
22% | 78%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 5:15 AM AEST
TG
Tommy Gantt
United States 11-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.19
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tommy Gantt
78.4 %
050100
CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.086 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Tommy Gantt eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tommy Gantt finishes 69% more of their wins
  • Tommy Gantt hits 0.67 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Drakkar Klose lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Drakkar Klose has a 12-fight UFC experience edge (13 vs 1)
Method Breakdown
Klose Gantt
KO/TKO 6.9
40.0
Submission 1.7
9.6
Decision 13.0
28.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
17
R2
10
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Klose Gantt
Str/min 4.3
3.6
Sig Acc 55%
74%
Str Def 49%
38%
TD/min 0.10
0.76
Finish 31%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
42
KloseGantt
Combined 75 21–131
Takedowns
0.3
1.7
KloseGantt
Combined 2.9 0.0–6.2
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gantt

    Tommy Gantt eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Gantt

    Tommy Gantt finishes 69% more of their wins

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Gantt

    Tommy Gantt hits 0.67 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Gantt

    Tommy Gantt finishes by KO 69% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Klose

    Drakkar Klose lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Gantt

    Tommy Gantt stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Rafa Garcia
Rafa Garcia
United States 18-4-0 Boxer Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 2.53
56% | 44%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4:50 AM AEST
RO
Rongzhu
China 28-6-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.52
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Rafa Garcia
55.7 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.059 · High
Why this pick
  • Rafa Garcia eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rafa Garcia rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Rafa Garcia hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Rongzhu lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rongzhu out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Rafa Garcia's 4.3
Method Breakdown
Garcia Rongzhu
KO/TKO 7.5
12.4
Submission 20.9
2.4
Decision 27.3
29.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
17
R2
8
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Garcia Rongzhu
Str/min 4.3
5.6
Sig Acc 44%
50%
Str Def 61%
54%
TD/min 0.21
0.12
Finish 27%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
51
GarciaRongzhu
Combined 108 24–189
Takedowns
1.1
0.0
GarciaRongzhu
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Garcia

    Rafa Garcia eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rongzhu

    Rongzhu lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Garcia

    Rafa Garcia rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Rongzhu

    Rongzhu finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Rongzhu

    Rongzhu finishes by KO 15% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Garcia

    Rafa Garcia hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Rafa Garcia wins
    Strong edge
    Model 56%
    Bookies 40%
    EV / $100 +$41
    Stake 6.7%
    2.53
    $67 returns $170
    +$103 profit
JR
Jessie Rosas
United States 0-0-0 nan
SB 2.31
44% | 56%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4:30 AM AEST
SI
Sean King III
nan
SB 1.62
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Sean King III
55.8 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Sean King III is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Rosas III
KO/TKO 12.8
17.2
Submission 9.6
11.0
Decision 21.8
27.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
12
R2
9
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rosas III
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
25
RosasIII
Combined 60 15–148
Takedowns
0.3
0.2
RosasIII
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours III

    Sean King III is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
JJ Aldrich
JJ Aldrich
United States 15-7-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight win streak
SB 3.17
33% | 67%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4:10 AM AEST
RT
Regina Tarin
1-0-0 nan 1 win
SB 1.36
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Regina Tarin
66.7 %
050100
CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.091 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Regina Tarin out-volumes opponents at 7.6 sig/min vs JJ Aldrich's 3.9
Method Breakdown
Aldrich Tarin
KO/TKO 5.4
15.0
Submission 4.1
2.6
Decision 23.7
49.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
8
R2
6
R3
73
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Aldrich Tarin
Str/min 3.9
7.6
Sig Acc 46%
48%
Str Def 62%
58%
TD/min 0.05
0.07
Finish 18%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
65
AldrichTarin
Combined 119 22–189
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
AldrichTarin
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 73% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Tarin

    Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes by KO 12% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Alexandre Pantoja
Pantoja
Title · Main Event
63%
Model Leans Van
2026-09-19
Joshua Van
Van
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026
19
SEP
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, USA
13
Bouts
4
Value Bouts
Alexandre Pantoja
C Alexandre Pantoja
Brazil 30-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.95
37% | 63%
Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 1:30 PM AEST
Joshua Van
Joshua Van
Myanmar 17-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 7-fight win streak
SB 1.85
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Joshua Van
63.1 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.086 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Joshua Van lands 4.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Joshua Van rides a 7-fight longer win streak
  • Joshua Van finishes by KO 29% more often
  • the case against Alexandre Pantoja eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Joshua Van rides a 7-fight win streak (Alexandre Pantoja: 0)
Method Breakdown
Pantoja Van
KO/TKO 5.8
36.9
Submission 16.1
3.6
Decision 15.0
22.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
24
R2
14
R3
7
R4
4
R5
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pantoja Van
Str/min 4.4
8.4
Sig Acc 50%
57%
Str Def 50%
58%
TD/min 0.19
0.05
Finish 50%
45%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
64
78
PantojaVan
Combined 133 23–257
Takedowns
1.7
0.0
PantojaVan
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 3.1 of 5 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Pantoja

    Alexandre Pantoja eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Van

    Joshua Van lands 4.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Van

    Joshua Van rides a 7-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Van

    Joshua Van finishes by KO 29% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Pantoja

    Alexandre Pantoja taps opponents 33% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Pantoja

    Alexandre Pantoja hits 0.13 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Joshua Van wins
    Strong edge
    Model 63%
    Bookies 54%
    EV / $100 +$17
    Stake 4.9%
    1.85
    $49 returns $91
    +$42 profit
Arman Tsarukyan
Arman Tsarukyan
Georgia 23-3-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 5-fight win streak
SB 1.25
77% | 23%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 12:45 PM AEST
Mauricio Ruffy
Mauricio Ruffy
Brazil 13-2-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 3.85
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Arman Tsarukyan
76.8 %
050100
CI · 47 – 98 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Arman Tsarukyan eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Arman Tsarukyan rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Arman Tsarukyan hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Mauricio Ruffy finishes 42% more of their wins
  • Arman Tsarukyan rides a 5-fight win streak (Mauricio Ruffy: 2)
Method Breakdown
Tsarukyan Ruffy
KO/TKO 32.4
16.8
Submission 12.4
0.1
Decision 32.0
6.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
21
R2
8
R3
6
R4
3
R5
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tsarukyan Ruffy
Str/min 3.9
4.0
Sig Acc 50%
57%
Str Def 55%
60%
TD/min 0.22
0.00
Finish 42%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
34
TsarukyanRuffy
Combined 98 24–163
Takedowns
2.3
0.0
TsarukyanRuffy
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 2.9 of 5 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Tsarukyan

    Arman Tsarukyan eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Tsarukyan

    Arman Tsarukyan rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Ruffy

    Mauricio Ruffy finishes 42% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Ruffy

    Mauricio Ruffy finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Tsarukyan

    Arman Tsarukyan hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Control time favours Tsarukyan

    Arman Tsarukyan controls 38% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Patricio Pitbull
Patricio Pitbull
0-1-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.95
18% | 82%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 12:15 PM AEST
Dooho Choi
Dooho Choi
South Korea 16-4-1 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.39
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Dooho Choi
81.5 %
050100
CI · 52 – 98 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Dooho Choi eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dooho Choi lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dooho Choi finishes 80% more of their wins
  • Dooho Choi rides a 3-fight win streak (Patricio Pitbull: 0)
Method Breakdown
Pitbull Choi
KO/TKO 2.2
20.6
Submission 1.9
5.3
Decision 14.3
55.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
11
R2
5
R3
70
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pitbull Choi
Str/min 3.3
5.0
Sig Acc 56%
56%
Str Def 45%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.08
Finish 0%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
46
PitbullChoi
Combined 80 19–146
Takedowns
0.2
0.3
PitbullChoi
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 69% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Choi

    Dooho Choi eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Choi

    Dooho Choi lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Choi

    Dooho Choi finishes 80% more of their wins

  • 04 Win streak favours Choi

    Dooho Choi rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 05 KO rate favours Choi

    Dooho Choi finishes by KO 80% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Choi

    Dooho Choi avoids 12% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Dooho Choi wins
    Strong edge
    Model 82%
    Bookies 72%
    EV / $100 +$13
    Stake 8.5%
    1.39
    $85 returns $118
    +$33 profit
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano
Brazil 21-7-1 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.46
64% | 36%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:45 AM AEST
Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega
United States 16-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.65
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Renato Moicano
63.5 %
050100
CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Renato Moicano eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Renato Moicano rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Renato Moicano lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Brian Ortega finishes by KO 11% more often
  • Renato Moicano has never been finished in 20 fights
Method Breakdown
Moicano Ortega
KO/TKO 10.4
6.7
Submission 7.6
13.8
Decision 45.6
16.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
16
R2
4
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moicano Ortega
Str/min 4.1
3.8
Sig Acc 49%
37%
Str Def 60%
49%
TD/min 0.11
0.06
Finish 70%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
46
32
MoicanoOrtega
Combined 74 18–149
Takedowns
0.8
0.2
MoicanoOrtega
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Ortega

    Brian Ortega finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano is 12% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Loss streak favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Alonzo Menifield
Alonzo Menifield
United States 17-6-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.99
29% | 71%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:15 AM AEST
Iwo Baraniewski
Iwo Baraniewski
Poland 8-0-0 Judo Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.38
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Iwo Baraniewski
70.8 %
050100
CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.070 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Iwo Baraniewski lands 7.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Iwo Baraniewski rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Iwo Baraniewski finishes by KO 50% more often
  • the case against Alonzo Menifield eats 4.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Iwo Baraniewski out-volumes opponents at 11.2 sig/min vs Alonzo Menifield's 3.8
Method Breakdown
Menifield Baraniewski
KO/TKO 8.2
55.7
Submission 5.9
3.6
Decision 15.1
11.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
45
R1
21
R2
8
R3
27
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Menifield Baraniewski
Str/min 3.8
11.2
Sig Acc 53%
57%
Str Def 51%
54%
TD/min 0.03
0.00
Finish 61%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
40
MenifieldBaraniewski
Combined 78 17–153
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
MenifieldBaraniewski
Combined 0.5 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Menifield

    Alonzo Menifield eats 4.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski lands 7.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski stuffs 20% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Gable Steveson
Gable Steveson
United States 3-0-0 Wrestler nan 1 win
SB 1.06
91% | 9%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 10:40 AM AEST
Sean Sharaf
Sean Sharaf
United States 4-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 8.50
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gable Steveson
90.9 %
050100
CI · 61 – 98 · σ 0.081 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Gable Steveson eats 9.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gable Steveson lands 9.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gable Steveson has been KO'd 100% less often
  • Gable Steveson out-volumes opponents at 15.3 sig/min vs Sean Sharaf's 6.1
Method Breakdown
Steveson Sharaf
KO/TKO 75.6
0.2
Submission 4.3
8.7
Decision 11.0
0.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
49
R1
33
R2
6
R3
11
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Steveson Sharaf
Str/min 15.3
6.1
Sig Acc 68%
36%
Str Def 61%
43%
TD/min 0.00
0.05
Finish 94%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
14
StevesonSharaf
Combined 59 13–135
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
StevesonSharaf
Combined 0.3 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.2 of 3 rounds 11% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson eats 9.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson lands 9.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO durability favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson has been KO'd 100% less often

  • 04 Win streak favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson is 32% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Durability favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson has been finished 100% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Marlon Vera
Marlon Vera
Ecuador 23-12-1 Grappler Switch Stance 4-fight loss streak
SB 2.99
33% | 67%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 10:10 AM AEST
Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain
Canada 18-8-1 Striker Switch Stance 3-fight win streak
SB 1.38
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Charles Jourdain
67.3 %
050100
CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Charles Jourdain eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Charles Jourdain lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Marlon Vera stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns
  • Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight win streak (Marlon Vera: 0)
Method Breakdown
Vera Jourdain
KO/TKO 6.5
20.4
Submission 9.7
9.1
Decision 16.5
37.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
17
R2
8
R3
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Vera Jourdain
Str/min 4.2
5.4
Sig Acc 48%
49%
Str Def 50%
57%
TD/min 0.03
0.03
Finish 42%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
63
62
VeraJourdain
Combined 112 22–211
Takedowns
0.5
0.1
VeraJourdain
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Loss streak favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain comes in on a 4-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Vera

    Marlon Vera stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Vera

    Marlon Vera finishes by KO 9% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Tai Tuivasa
Tai Tuivasa
Australia 15-10-0 Southpaw 7-fight loss streak
SB 4.90
28% | 72%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 9:40 AM AEST
Robelis Despaigne
Robelis Despaigne
Cuba 5-2-0 Taekwondo Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.17
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Robelis Despaigne
71.8 %
050100
CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.070 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Robelis Despaigne eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Robelis Despaigne comes in on a 5-fight cleaner skid
  • Robelis Despaigne is 11% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Tai Tuivasa lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • layoff Despaigne hasn't fought since Oct 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Tai Tuivasa has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (18 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Tuivasa Despaigne
KO/TKO 18.0
46.3
Submission 1.2
3.7
Decision 9.0
21.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
27
R2
7
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tuivasa Despaigne
Str/min 3.4
2.1
Sig Acc 49%
60%
Str Def 43%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 72%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
34
TuivasaDespaigne
Combined 54 16–127
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TuivasaDespaigne
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Despaigne

    Robelis Despaigne eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Tuivasa

    Tai Tuivasa lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Tuivasa

    Tai Tuivasa finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 04 Loss streak favours Despaigne

    Robelis Despaigne comes in on a 5-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 KO rate favours Tuivasa

    Tai Tuivasa finishes by KO 22% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Despaigne

    Robelis Despaigne is 11% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Tai Tuivasa wins
    Strong edge
    Model 28%
    Bookies 20%
    EV / $100 +$38
    Stake 2.4%
    4.90
    $24 returns $118
    +$94 profit
MJ
Michael Aswell Jr.
1-3-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
58% | 42%
Featherweight 3 rds
JY
JooSang Yoo
South Korea 9-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Michael Aswell Jr.
57.8 %
050100
CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.107 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Michael Aswell Jr. lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Michael Aswell Jr. has been KO'd 50% less often
  • Michael Aswell Jr. has been finished 50% less often
  • the case against JooSang Yoo eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Michael Aswell Jr. out-volumes opponents at 6.7 sig/min vs JooSang Yoo's 5.2
Method Breakdown
Jr. Yoo
KO/TKO 31.9
8.5
Submission 3.8
3.3
Decision 22.1
30.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
12
R2
10
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jr. Yoo
Str/min 6.7
5.2
Sig Acc 39%
48%
Str Def 52%
56%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 25%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
47
Jr.Yoo
Combined 123 20–185
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
Jr.Yoo
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Yoo

    JooSang Yoo eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Yoo

    JooSang Yoo finishes 57% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Yoo

    JooSang Yoo finishes by KO 57% more often

  • 05 KO durability favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. has been KO'd 50% less often

  • 06 Durability favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. has been finished 50% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ozzy Diaz
Ozzy Diaz
United States 10-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
28% | 72%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Ryan Gandra
Ryan Gandra
Brazil 9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ryan Gandra
71.8 %
050100
CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Ryan Gandra eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ryan Gandra lands 4.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ryan Gandra rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Ryan Gandra out-volumes opponents at 10.2 sig/min vs Ozzy Diaz's 5.6
Method Breakdown
Diaz Gandra
KO/TKO 5.6
35.4
Submission 8.3
5.2
Decision 14.2
31.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
8
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Diaz Gandra
Str/min 5.6
10.2
Sig Acc 45%
40%
Str Def 63%
62%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 59%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
31
DiazGandra
Combined 66 16–146
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
DiazGandra
Combined 0.4 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra lands 4.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 06 KO durability favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra has been KO'd 67% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Edmen Shahbazyan
Edmen Shahbazyan
United States 16-5-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.59
69% | 31%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 8:10 AM AEST
Brunno Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira
Brazil 15-3-0 Grappler Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.31
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Edmen Shahbazyan
69.3 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Edmen Shahbazyan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Edmen Shahbazyan stuffs 19% more incoming takedowns
  • Edmen Shahbazyan finishes by KO 10% more often
  • the case against Brunno Ferreira eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Edmen Shahbazyan KOs 60% of opponents — Brunno Ferreira has been KO'd in 20% of losses
Method Breakdown
Shahbazyan Ferreira
KO/TKO 44.0
13.6
Submission 5.7
6.0
Decision 19.6
11.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
44
R1
22
R2
5
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Shahbazyan Ferreira
Str/min 3.9
3.1
Sig Acc 49%
48%
Str Def 50%
52%
TD/min 0.10
0.07
Finish 73%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
24
ShahbazyanFerreira
Combined 58 15–105
Takedowns
0.4
0.3
ShahbazyanFerreira
Combined 0.6 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 30% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Shahbazyan

    Edmen Shahbazyan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Ferreira

    Brunno Ferreira eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Shahbazyan

    Edmen Shahbazyan stuffs 19% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Submission rate favours Ferreira

    Brunno Ferreira taps opponents 13% more often

  • 05 KO rate favours Shahbazyan

    Edmen Shahbazyan finishes by KO 10% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ferreira

    Brunno Ferreira finishes 7% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Edmen Shahbazyan wins
    Strong edge
    Model 69%
    Bookies 63%
    EV / $100 +$10
    Stake 4.3%
    1.59
    $43 returns $68
    +$25 profit
CO
Casey O'Neill
6-2-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.57
63% | 37%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 7:40 AM AEST
Eduarda Moura
Eduarda Moura
Brazil 12-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.37
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Casey O'Neill
63.2 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Casey O'Neill lands 5.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Casey O'Neill rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Casey O'Neill finishes 42% more of their wins
  • the case against Eduarda Moura eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Casey O'Neill out-volumes opponents at 7.9 sig/min vs Eduarda Moura's 2.6
Method Breakdown
O'Neill Moura
KO/TKO 20.7
0.1
Submission 5.6
4.7
Decision 36.8
32.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
13
R2
6
R3
69
DEC
Key Stats career avg
O'Neill Moura
Str/min 7.9
2.6
Sig Acc 52%
38%
Str Def 58%
59%
TD/min 0.09
0.24
Finish 62%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
48
32
O'NeillMoura
Combined 85 22–151
Takedowns
0.1
1.7
O'NeillMoura
Combined 2.3 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 68% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Moura

    Eduarda Moura eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours O'Neill

    Casey O'Neill lands 5.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours O'Neill

    Casey O'Neill rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours O'Neill

    Casey O'Neill finishes 42% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours O'Neill

    Casey O'Neill finishes by KO 18% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Moura

    Eduarda Moura hits 0.14 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Giga Chikadze
Giga Chikadze
Georgia 15-6-0 Karate Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
SB 3.75
31% | 69%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 7:10 AM AEST
Joanderson Brito
Joanderson Brito
Brazil 18-5-1 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.26
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Joanderson Brito
69.0 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.056 · High
Why this pick
  • Joanderson Brito eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Joanderson Brito rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Joanderson Brito finishes 27% more of their wins
  • the case against Giga Chikadze lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Joanderson Brito has never been finished in 10 fights
Method Breakdown
Chikadze Brito
KO/TKO 13.0
22.5
Submission 1.6
9.5
Decision 16.5
37.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
15
R2
11
R3
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chikadze Brito
Str/min 3.8
2.2
Sig Acc 42%
49%
Str Def 61%
43%
TD/min 0.01
0.21
Finish 33%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
38
ChikadzeBrito
Combined 82 22–133
Takedowns
0.0
1.3
ChikadzeBrito
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Chikadze

    Giga Chikadze lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito finishes 27% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito taps opponents 30% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito hits 0.19 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Raoni Barcelos
Barcelos
Main Event
63%
Model Leans Jr.
2026-09-26
Raul Rosas Jr.
Jr.
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
2026
26
SEP
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
11
Bouts
Raoni Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos
Brazil 21-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 5-fight win streak
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Raul Rosas Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr.
United States 13-1-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Raul Rosas Jr.
62.7 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Raul Rosas Jr. eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Raul Rosas Jr. hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute
  • Raul Rosas Jr. taps opponents 15% more often
  • the case against Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Raoni Barcelos out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Raul Rosas Jr.'s 1.3
Method Breakdown
Barcelos Jr.
KO/TKO 10.7
13.4
Submission 3.8
27.4
Decision 22.8
21.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
8
R3
5
R4
2
R5
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barcelos Jr.
Str/min 4.7
1.3
Sig Acc 52%
41%
Str Def 61%
55%
TD/min 0.17
0.45
Finish 33%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
38
BarcelosJr.
Combined 84 17–141
Takedowns
0.7
1.4
BarcelosJr.
Combined 2.8 0.0–6.8
Fight length
Expected 3.1 of 5 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Barcelos

    Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Barcelos

    Raoni Barcelos stuffs 54% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. taps opponents 15% more often

  • 06 Control time favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. controls 32% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Robert Bryczek
Robert Bryczek
Poland 18-7-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 loss
49% | 51%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Rodolfo Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira
Brazil 11-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rodolfo Vieira
50.8 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Rodolfo Vieira taps opponents 45% more often
  • Rodolfo Vieira lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rodolfo Vieira finishes 30% more of their wins
  • the case against Robert Bryczek finishes by KO 24% more often
  • Robert Bryczek has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Bryczek Vieira
KO/TKO 25.6
5.1
Submission 5.0
21.1
Decision 18.6
24.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
12
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bryczek Vieira
Str/min 2.8
3.4
Sig Acc 38%
54%
Str Def 55%
49%
TD/min 0.02
0.19
Finish 33%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
36
BryczekVieira
Combined 71 18–136
Takedowns
0.0
1.7
BryczekVieira
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Submission rate favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira taps opponents 45% more often

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira finishes 30% more of their wins

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Bryczek

    Robert Bryczek finishes by KO 24% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira hits 0.17 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
BH
Brady Hiestand
United States 9-2-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
40% | 60%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Rinya Nakamura
Rinya Nakamura
Japan 10-1-0 Wrestler Southpaw 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rinya Nakamura
59.8 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.084 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Rinya Nakamura eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rinya Nakamura stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns
  • Rinya Nakamura finishes by KO 16% more often
  • the case against Brady Hiestand rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Brady Hiestand rides a 3-fight win streak (Rinya Nakamura: 1)
Method Breakdown
Hiestand Nakamura
KO/TKO 9.0
12.9
Submission 14.6
4.5
Decision 16.6
42.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
7
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hiestand Nakamura
Str/min 2.5
2.7
Sig Acc 48%
52%
Str Def 51%
64%
TD/min 0.30
0.15
Finish 47%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
34
HiestandNakamura
Combined 62 19–114
Takedowns
1.1
0.9
HiestandNakamura
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nakamura

    Rinya Nakamura eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Hiestand

    Brady Hiestand rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Nakamura

    Rinya Nakamura stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hiestand

    Brady Hiestand taps opponents 24% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Hiestand

    Brady Hiestand hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Nakamura

    Rinya Nakamura finishes by KO 16% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
IU
Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
0-0-0 nan
48% | 52%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
MO
Mehemmedeli Osmanli
0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mehemmedeli Osmanli
52.0 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Uulu Osmanli
KO/TKO 15.5
17.3
Submission 12.3
11.1
Decision 20.2
23.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
10
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Uulu Osmanli
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
28
UuluOsmanli
Combined 56 15–138
Takedowns
0.3
0.2
UuluOsmanli
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
VM
Valesca Machado
0-1-0 Orthodox
68% | 32%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
MA
Melissa Amaya
0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Valesca Machado
68.3 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.041 · High
Why this pick
  • Valesca Machado is favoured at 68% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Machado Amaya
KO/TKO 19.6
4.3
Submission 6.9
6.8
Decision 41.8
20.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
11
R2
8
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Machado Amaya
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
30
MachadoAmaya
Combined 63 15–169
Takedowns
0.5
0.1
MachadoAmaya
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Machado

    Valesca Machado is favoured at 68% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Elves Brener
Elves Brener
Brazil 16-6-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
83% | 17%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Josiah Harrell
Josiah Harrell
United States 11-1-0 Grappler Southpaw 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Elves Brener
82.8 %
050100
CI · 53 – 98 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Elves Brener eats 5.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Elves Brener lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Elves Brener stuffs 76% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Josiah Harrell finishes 26% more of their wins
  • Elves Brener out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Josiah Harrell's 1.8
Method Breakdown
Brener Harrell
KO/TKO 45.7
0.1
Submission 6.2
2.7
Decision 30.9
14.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
16
R2
6
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brener Harrell
Str/min 4.8
1.8
Sig Acc 48%
38%
Str Def 51%
30%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 50%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
26
BrenerHarrell
Combined 67 16–149
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
BrenerHarrell
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Brener

    Elves Brener eats 5.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Brener

    Elves Brener lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Brener

    Elves Brener stuffs 76% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Finish rate favours Harrell

    Josiah Harrell finishes 26% more of their wins

  • 05 KO durability favours Brener

    Elves Brener has been KO'd 83% less often

  • 06 KO rate favours Harrell

    Josiah Harrell finishes by KO 26% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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CE
Christian Edwards
United States 8-4-0 MMA nan 1 loss
37% | 63%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Rodolfo Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato
Brazil 13-3-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rodolfo Bellato
63.5 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rodolfo Bellato finishes 40% more of their wins
  • Rodolfo Bellato finishes by KO 40% more often
  • the case against Christian Edwards eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rodolfo Bellato out-volumes opponents at 5.4 sig/min vs Christian Edwards's 1.8
Method Breakdown
Edwards Bellato
KO/TKO 8.6
33.7
Submission 4.8
5.0
Decision 23.1
24.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
9
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Edwards Bellato
Str/min 1.8
5.4
Sig Acc 39%
59%
Str Def 55%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.11
Finish 0%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
36
EdwardsBellato
Combined 62 19–128
Takedowns
0.1
0.5
EdwardsBellato
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Edwards

    Christian Edwards eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato finishes 40% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato finishes by KO 40% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato is 20% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Ricky Simon
Ricky Simon
United States 22-7-1 Wrestling Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
32% | 68%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Montel Jackson
Montel Jackson
United States 15-3-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Montel Jackson
67.7 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.093 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Montel Jackson eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Montel Jackson is 12% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Ricky Simon finishes 10% more of their wins
  • Montel Jackson has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Simon Jackson
KO/TKO 8.2
9.9
Submission 2.0
7.8
Decision 22.0
50.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
10
R2
5
R3
72
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Simon Jackson
Str/min 3.0
2.9
Sig Acc 42%
54%
Str Def 60%
59%
TD/min 0.26
0.18
Finish 41%
31%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
46
SimonJackson
Combined 76 21–121
Takedowns
0.9
0.8
SimonJackson
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 72% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jackson

    Montel Jackson eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Simon

    Ricky Simon finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Jackson

    Montel Jackson is 12% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Simon

    Ricky Simon hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Simon

    Ricky Simon taps opponents 10% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Simon

    Ricky Simon stuffs 11% more incoming takedowns

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AL
Alatengheili
China 17-10-2 Wrestling Orthodox 1 loss
31% | 69%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
John Castaneda
John Castaneda
United States 21-8-1 MMA Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
John Castaneda
68.8 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • John Castaneda lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • John Castaneda finishes 22% more of their wins
  • John Castaneda is 19% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Alatengheili eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • John Castaneda out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Alatengheili's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Alatengheili Castaneda
KO/TKO 6.4
21.1
Submission 3.6
8.8
Decision 21.1
39.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
13
R2
9
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Alatengheili Castaneda
Str/min 2.8
5.2
Sig Acc 33%
52%
Str Def 57%
53%
TD/min 0.12
0.09
Finish 11%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
58
AlatengheiliCastaneda
Combined 102 22–166
Takedowns
0.2
0.1
AlatengheiliCastaneda
Combined 1.1 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Castaneda

    John Castaneda lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Alatengheili

    Alatengheili eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Castaneda

    John Castaneda finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Castaneda

    John Castaneda is 19% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 KO rate favours Castaneda

    John Castaneda finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Loss streak favours Alatengheili

    Alatengheili comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Norma Dumont
Norma Dumont
Brazil 13-2-0 Orthodox 1 loss
44% | 56%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Ailin Perez
Ailin Perez
Argentina 13-2-0 Kung Fu Switch Stance 6-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ailin Perez
56.0 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight longer win streak
  • Ailin Perez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ailin Perez hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Norma Dumont lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight win streak (Norma Dumont: 0)
Method Breakdown
Dumont Perez
KO/TKO 2.9
9.5
Submission 14.4
2.2
Decision 26.7
44.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
8
R1
13
R2
8
R3
71
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dumont Perez
Str/min 3.8
2.9
Sig Acc 51%
56%
Str Def 64%
57%
TD/min 0.10
0.33
Finish 8%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
43
DumontPerez
Combined 83 23–133
Takedowns
0.7
1.5
DumontPerez
Combined 2.6 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 71% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Perez

    Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Perez

    Ailin Perez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Dumont

    Norma Dumont lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Perez

    Ailin Perez hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Perez

    Ailin Perez finishes 20% more of their wins

  • 06 Submission rate favours Perez

    Ailin Perez taps opponents 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Vanessa Demopoulos
Vanessa Demopoulos
United States 11-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
30% | 70%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
YJ
Yazmin Jauregui
Mexico 11-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yazmin Jauregui
70.0 %
050100
CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Yazmin Jauregui lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yazmin Jauregui eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yazmin Jauregui stuffs 72% more incoming takedowns
  • layoff Jauregui hasn't fought since Sep 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Yazmin Jauregui out-volumes opponents at 6.6 sig/min vs Vanessa Demopoulos's 3.6
Method Breakdown
Demopoulos Jauregui
KO/TKO 0.1
22.6
Submission 11.5
0.1
Decision 18.3
47.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
10
R2
6
R3
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Demopoulos Jauregui
Str/min 3.6
6.6
Sig Acc 40%
39%
Str Def 41%
55%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 20%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
54
67
DemopoulosJauregui
Combined 112 22–191
Takedowns
0.5
0.2
DemopoulosJauregui
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui stuffs 72% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Finish rate favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui finishes 40% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui finishes by KO 40% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui avoids 14% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Natalia Silva
Silva
Main Event
67%
Model Leans Silva
2026-10-03
Wang Cong
Cong
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
2026
03
OCT
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Delta Center, Salt Lake City, USA
12
Bouts
Natalia Silva
Natalia Silva
Brazil 20-5-1 Taekwondo Southpaw 8-fight win streak
SB 1.38
67% | 33%
Women's Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 12:30 PM AEST
Wang Cong
Wang Cong
China 9-1-0 Striker Southpaw 4-fight win streak
SB 2.99
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Natalia Silva
67.1 %
050100
CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Natalia Silva rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Natalia Silva eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Natalia Silva finishes by KO 8% more often
  • the case against Wang Cong lands 2.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Natalia Silva rides a 8-fight win streak (Wang Cong: 4)
Method Breakdown
Silva Cong
KO/TKO 19.2
8.9
Submission 6.8
3.9
Decision 41.0
20.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
10
R1
15
R2
10
R3
0
R4
3
R5
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Silva Cong
Str/min 4.8
6.8
Sig Acc 45%
58%
Str Def 66%
60%
TD/min 0.03
0.03
Finish 25%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
65
66
SilvaCong
Combined 175 24–260
Takedowns
0.5
0.0
SilvaCong
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 3.7 of 5 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Cong

    Wang Cong lands 2.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Silva

    Natalia Silva rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Silva

    Natalia Silva eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Cong

    Wang Cong is 13% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Finish rate favours Cong

    Wang Cong finishes 8% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Silva

    Natalia Silva finishes by KO 8% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Deiveson Figueiredo
Deiveson Figueiredo
Brazil 25-6-1 Boxing Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 4.90
21% | 79%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 11:45 AM AEST
Payton Talbott
Payton Talbott
United States 11-1-0 Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
SB 1.17
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Payton Talbott
79.3 %
050100
CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Payton Talbott lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Payton Talbott eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Payton Talbott rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Payton Talbott out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Deiveson Figueiredo's 2.6
Method Breakdown
Figueiredo Talbott
KO/TKO 3.1
45.7
Submission 9.8
11.0
Decision 7.8
22.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
25
R2
11
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Figueiredo Talbott
Str/min 2.6
5.9
Sig Acc 54%
59%
Str Def 50%
45%
TD/min 0.11
0.06
Finish 55%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
42
FigueiredoTalbott
Combined 66 19–139
Takedowns
0.8
0.0
FigueiredoTalbott
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Loss streak favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 KO rate favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott finishes by KO 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
King Green
King Green
United States 35-17-1 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
32% | 68%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Esteban Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics
Argentina 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Esteban Ribovics
67.6 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Esteban Ribovics lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against King Green eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • King Green rides a 4-fight win streak (Esteban Ribovics: 1)
Method Breakdown
Green Ribovics
KO/TKO 4.8
21.6
Submission 3.6
5.9
Decision 24.0
40.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
10
R2
5
R3
64
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Green Ribovics
Str/min 6.6
7.4
Sig Acc 54%
44%
Str Def 62%
54%
TD/min 0.08
0.02
Finish 45%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
58
60
GreenRibovics
Combined 117 23–194
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
GreenRibovics
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 64% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Green

    King Green eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Green

    King Green rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Green

    King Green finishes 8% more of their wins

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Green

    King Green is 10% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Submission rate favours Green

    King Green taps opponents 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Roberto Soldic
Roberto Soldic
0-0-0 nan
23% | 77%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Khaos Williams
Khaos Williams
United States 15-5-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Khaos Williams
76.8 %
050100
CI · 47 – 98 · σ 0.078 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Khaos Williams rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Khaos Williams out-volumes opponents at 5.0 sig/min vs Roberto Soldic's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Soldic Williams
KO/TKO 2.5
57.5
Submission 4.4
3.7
Decision 16.2
15.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
43
R1
15
R2
10
R3
32
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Soldic Williams
Str/min 0.0
5.0
Sig Acc 0%
39%
Str Def 0%
41%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
55%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
41
SoldicWilliams
Combined 72 16–169
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
SoldicWilliams
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 32% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Williams

    Khaos Williams rides a 1-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Roman Kopylov
Roman Kopylov
Russia 15-5-0 Southpaw 1 win
18% | 82%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Ateba Gautier
Ateba Gautier
Cameroon 11-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ateba Gautier
81.8 %
050100
CI · 52 – 98 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ateba Gautier eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ateba Gautier rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Ateba Gautier finishes by KO 38% more often
  • the case against Roman Kopylov lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ateba Gautier rides a 5-fight win streak (Roman Kopylov: 1)
Method Breakdown
Kopylov Gautier
KO/TKO 8.7
52.4
Submission 1.1
3.5
Decision 8.5
25.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
24
R2
7
R3
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kopylov Gautier
Str/min 4.5
4.0
Sig Acc 50%
38%
Str Def 53%
54%
TD/min 0.07
0.04
Finish 58%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
41
KopylovGautier
Combined 92 21–163
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
KopylovGautier
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gautier

    Ateba Gautier eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Gautier

    Ateba Gautier rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 KO rate favours Gautier

    Ateba Gautier finishes by KO 38% more often

  • 04 Striking volume favours Kopylov

    Roman Kopylov lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Gautier

    Ateba Gautier finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Kopylov

    Roman Kopylov is 13% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alden Coria
Alden Coria
United States 12-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
49% | 51%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 8:00 AM AEST
Imanol Rodriguez
Imanol Rodriguez
Mexico 7-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Imanol Rodriguez
51.4 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.085 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Imanol Rodriguez finishes 71% more of their wins
  • Imanol Rodriguez lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Imanol Rodriguez finishes by KO 71% more often
  • the case against Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Alden Coria rides a 3-fight win streak (Imanol Rodriguez: 1)
Method Breakdown
Coria Rodriguez
KO/TKO 13.6
20.7
Submission 9.9
3.7
Decision 25.1
26.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
16
R2
7
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Coria Rodriguez
Str/min 3.6
4.9
Sig Acc 37%
55%
Str Def 70%
58%
TD/min 0.13
0.11
Finish 29%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
34
CoriaRodriguez
Combined 76 19–120
Takedowns
0.5
0.5
CoriaRodriguez
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Rodriguez

    Imanol Rodriguez finishes 71% more of their wins

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

    Imanol Rodriguez lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Rodriguez

    Imanol Rodriguez finishes by KO 71% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Coria

    Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Coria

    Alden Coria eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Rodriguez

    Imanol Rodriguez is 18% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Andrey Pulyaev
Andrey Pulyaev
Russia 10-3-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
26% | 74%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 8:00 AM AEST
Damian Pinas
Damian Pinas
9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Damian Pinas
74.1 %
050100
CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Damian Pinas lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas finishes by KO 75% more often
  • Damian Pinas finishes 50% more of their wins
  • the case against Andrey Pulyaev eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Andrey Pulyaev's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Pulyaev Pinas
KO/TKO 10.0
42.8
Submission 3.5
6.3
Decision 12.3
25.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
18
R2
7
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pulyaev Pinas
Str/min 2.5
5.5
Sig Acc 47%
71%
Str Def 57%
37%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
30
PulyaevPinas
Combined 65 15–145
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
PulyaevPinas
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Pulyaev

    Andrey Pulyaev eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes by KO 75% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas stuffs 40% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Marcus McGhee
Marcus McGhee
United States 10-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
58% | 42%
Bantamweight 3 rds
Benardo Sopaj
Benardo Sopaj
Albania 12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Marcus McGhee
58.1 %
050100
CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.090 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Marcus McGhee eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Marcus McGhee lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marcus McGhee has been KO'd 33% less often
  • the case against Benardo Sopaj rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Marcus McGhee out-volumes opponents at 5.4 sig/min vs Benardo Sopaj's 3.9
Method Breakdown
McGhee Sopaj
KO/TKO 31.2
13.3
Submission 5.3
6.8
Decision 21.6
21.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
9
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McGhee Sopaj
Str/min 5.4
3.9
Sig Acc 44%
51%
Str Def 56%
53%
TD/min 0.02
0.14
Finish 50%
59%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
39
McGheeSopaj
Combined 86 21–171
Takedowns
0.1
0.7
McGheeSopaj
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours McGhee

    Marcus McGhee eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours McGhee

    Marcus McGhee lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Sopaj

    Benardo Sopaj rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Sopaj

    Benardo Sopaj hits 0.13 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 KO durability favours McGhee

    Marcus McGhee has been KO'd 33% less often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Sopaj

    Benardo Sopaj taps opponents 13% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
Brazil 22-10-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
32% | 68%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 6:00 AM AEST
Mick Parkin
Mick Parkin
England 10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mick Parkin
67.6 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.054 · High
Why this pick
  • Mick Parkin lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Mick Parkin stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns
  • Mick Parkin avoids 11% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Johnny Walker eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mick Parkin has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Walker Parkin
KO/TKO 15.1
37.7
Submission 3.7
2.3
Decision 13.6
27.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
20
R2
9
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Walker Parkin
Str/min 3.7
4.7
Sig Acc 53%
50%
Str Def 49%
60%
TD/min 0.02
0.06
Finish 69%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
51
WalkerParkin
Combined 90 20–162
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
WalkerParkin
Combined 0.6 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Walker

    Johnny Walker eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Parkin

    Mick Parkin lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker finishes 49% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker finishes by KO 42% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Parkin

    Mick Parkin stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Striking defence favours Parkin

    Mick Parkin avoids 11% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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RA
Rafael Dos Anjos
Brazil 32-17-0 Grappler Southpaw 3-fight loss streak
31% | 69%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 6:00 AM AEST
Alexander Hernandez
Alexander Hernandez
United States 18-8-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Alexander Hernandez
68.6 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Alexander Hernandez lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alexander Hernandez finishes by KO 22% more often
  • Alexander Hernandez finishes 11% more of their wins
  • the case against Rafael Dos Anjos eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • layoff Anjos hasn't fought since Oct 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Rafael Dos Anjos has never been finished in 36 fights
Method Breakdown
Anjos Hernandez
KO/TKO 1.8
18.6
Submission 10.0
6.1
Decision 19.7
43.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
9
R2
6
R3
64
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Anjos Hernandez
Str/min 3.5
4.2
Sig Acc 47%
40%
Str Def 60%
60%
TD/min 0.13
0.07
Finish 39%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
49
AnjosHernandez
Combined 101 22–152
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
AnjosHernandez
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 64% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Anjos

    Rafael Dos Anjos eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hernandez

    Alexander Hernandez lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Hernandez

    Alexander Hernandez finishes by KO 22% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Hernandez

    Alexander Hernandez finishes 11% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Anjos

    Rafael Dos Anjos taps opponents 14% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Hernandez

    Alexander Hernandez stuffs 14% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Marvin Vettori
Marvin Vettori
Italy 19-10-1 MMA Southpaw 4-fight loss streak
24% | 76%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 6:00 AM AEST
Ismail Naurdiev
Ismail Naurdiev
Morocco 25-8-0 Wrestling Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ismail Naurdiev
75.7 %
050100
CI · 46 – 98 · σ 0.049 · High
Why this pick
  • Ismail Naurdiev eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ismail Naurdiev rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Ismail Naurdiev comes in on a 4-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Marvin Vettori lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marvin Vettori has never been finished in 18 fights
Method Breakdown
Vettori Naurdiev
KO/TKO 2.1
19.1
Submission 8.1
4.9
Decision 14.1
51.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
10
R2
6
R3
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Vettori Naurdiev
Str/min 4.7
3.7
Sig Acc 46%
53%
Str Def 56%
65%
TD/min 0.09
0.10
Finish 11%
14%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
62
VettoriNaurdiev
Combined 115 24–154
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
VettoriNaurdiev
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Naurdiev

    Ismail Naurdiev eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vettori

    Marvin Vettori lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Naurdiev

    Ismail Naurdiev rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Loss streak favours Naurdiev

    Ismail Naurdiev comes in on a 4-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 KO rate favours Naurdiev

    Ismail Naurdiev finishes by KO 14% more often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Vettori

    Marvin Vettori taps opponents 11% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Court McGee
Court McGee
United States 23-14-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
54% | 46%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 6:00 AM AEST
Eric Nolan
Eric Nolan
United States 8-4-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Court McGee
53.5 %
050100
CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Court McGee lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Court McGee stuffs 27% more incoming takedowns
  • Court McGee avoids 16% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Eric Nolan eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Court McGee out-volumes opponents at 4.5 sig/min vs Eric Nolan's 1.7
Method Breakdown
McGee Nolan
KO/TKO 5.4
16.4
Submission 15.2
7.2
Decision 32.9
22.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
11
R2
9
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McGee Nolan
Str/min 4.5
1.7
Sig Acc 37%
35%
Str Def 61%
45%
TD/min 0.12
0.00
Finish 25%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
37
McGeeNolan
Combined 79 21–151
Takedowns
1.6
0.0
McGeeNolan
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McGee

    Court McGee lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Nolan

    Eric Nolan eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Nolan

    Eric Nolan finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown defence favours McGee

    Court McGee stuffs 27% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Striking defence favours McGee

    Court McGee avoids 16% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Takedown volume favours McGee

    Court McGee hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Brendan Allen
Allen
Main Event
53%
Model Leans Allen
2026-10-10
Christian Leroy Duncan
Duncan
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
2026
10
OCT
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
2
Bouts
Brendan Allen
Brendan Allen
United States 26-7-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.95
53% | 47%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 1:30 PM AEST
Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan
United Kingdom 14-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 5-fight win streak
SB 1.85
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Brendan Allen
52.5 %
050100
CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.075 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Brendan Allen taps opponents 37% more often
  • Brendan Allen finishes 8% more of their wins
  • the case against Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 5-fight win streak (Brendan Allen: 3)
Method Breakdown
Allen Duncan
KO/TKO 16.0
22.0
Submission 21.7
4.6
Decision 14.8
20.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
10
R3
7
R4
3
R5
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Allen Duncan
Str/min 3.7
4.4
Sig Acc 52%
58%
Str Def 48%
54%
TD/min 0.10
0.03
Finish 58%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
57
AllenDuncan
Combined 93 23–178
Takedowns
1.2
0.0
AllenDuncan
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.8 of 5 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Allen

    Brendan Allen taps opponents 37% more often

  • 05 KO rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes by KO 29% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Allen

    Brendan Allen finishes 8% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
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TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 11 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
Mike Malott
Malott
Main Event
56%
Model Leans Buckley
2026-10-17
Joaquin Buckley
Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026
17
OCT
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Rogers Place, Edmonton, Canada
11
Bouts
Mike Malott
Mike Malott
United States 14-2-1 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
44% | 56%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley
United States 21-8-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Joaquin Buckley
56.3 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 15% more often
  • the case against Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Mike Malott rides a 4-fight win streak (Joaquin Buckley: 0)
Method Breakdown
Malott Buckley
KO/TKO 16.1
30.9
Submission 8.1
2.2
Decision 19.5
23.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
15
R2
6
R3
6
R4
3
R5
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Malott Buckley
Str/min 3.9
3.6
Sig Acc 52%
36%
Str Def 57%
59%
TD/min 0.10
0.10
Finish 75%
65%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
41
MalottBuckley
Combined 93 21–166
Takedowns
0.2
0.1
MalottBuckley
Combined 0.6 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Malott

    Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Malott

    Mike Malott eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Malott

    Mike Malott taps opponents 25% more often

  • 04 Striking volume favours Malott

    Mike Malott lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Buckley

    Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 15% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Malott

    Mike Malott is 16% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Nate Landwehr
Nate Landwehr
United States 18-8-0 Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
77% | 23%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Mandel Nallo
Mandel Nallo
Canada 14-4-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nate Landwehr
77.3 %
050100
CI · 47 – 98 · σ 0.070 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Nate Landwehr eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Nate Landwehr has been KO'd 55% less often
  • Nate Landwehr avoids 19% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Mandel Nallo finishes by KO 21% more often
  • Nate Landwehr KOs 55% of opponents — Mandel Nallo has been KO'd in 100% of losses
Method Breakdown
Landwehr Nallo
KO/TKO 45.6
5.6
Submission 9.1
4.1
Decision 22.7
13.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
18
R2
9
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Landwehr Nallo
Str/min 5.6
5.8
Sig Acc 46%
39%
Str Def 51%
32%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 73%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
36
LandwehrNallo
Combined 74 18–170
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
LandwehrNallo
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Nallo

    Mandel Nallo finishes by KO 21% more often

  • 03 KO durability favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr has been KO'd 55% less often

  • 04 Striking defence favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr avoids 19% more incoming strikes

  • 05 Striking volume favours Nallo

    Mandel Nallo lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr taps opponents 18% more often

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Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
United States 14-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
82% | 18%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Canada 15-4-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Erin Blanchfield
82.0 %
050100
CI · 52 – 98 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often
  • the case against Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Jasmine Jasudavicius's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
KO/TKO 20.8
4.5
Submission 13.1
2.3
Decision 48.1
11.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
18
R2
10
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
Str/min 5.2
3.4
Sig Acc 44%
44%
Str Def 59%
52%
TD/min 0.13
0.17
Finish 44%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
49
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 102 23–170
Takedowns
0.5
0.8
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield finishes 11% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius finishes by KO 8% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Kyle Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus
United States 17-4-0 Southpaw 1 loss
69% | 31%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Marc-Andre Barriault
Marc-Andre Barriault
Canada 17-11-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kyle Daukaus
69.3 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kyle Daukaus finishes 13% more of their wins
  • Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marc-Andre Barriault out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Kyle Daukaus's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Daukaus Barriault
KO/TKO 17.2
14.5
Submission 25.3
1.5
Decision 26.8
14.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
17
R2
10
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Daukaus Barriault
Str/min 2.9
5.6
Sig Acc 49%
47%
Str Def 42%
49%
TD/min 0.13
0.02
Finish 60%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
36
DaukausBarriault
Combined 78 17–165
Takedowns
1.2
0.0
DaukausBarriault
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Barriault

    Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus finishes 13% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus taps opponents 14% more often

  • 06 Control time favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus controls 31% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Katlyn Cerminara
Katlyn Cerminara
United States 18-6-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Canada 9-3-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jamey-Lyn Horth
65.7 %
050100
CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth is 13% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Katlyn Cerminara lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • layoff Cerminara hasn't fought since Mar 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth has never been finished in 7 fights
Method Breakdown
Cerminara Horth
KO/TKO 3.1
14.2
Submission 2.7
2.5
Decision 28.5
49.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
6
R2
5
R3
78
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cerminara Horth
Str/min 4.6
3.8
Sig Acc 35%
48%
Str Def 62%
64%
TD/min 0.02
0.07
Finish 12%
14%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
54
70
CerminaraHorth
Combined 130 24–191
Takedowns
0.0
0.3
CerminaraHorth
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 78% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Cerminara

    Katlyn Cerminara lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth is 13% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth hits 0.04 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Loss streak favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Tanner Boser
Tanner Boser
Canada 22-11-1 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
34% | 66%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz
Brazil 9-2-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jhonata Diniz
66.2 %
050100
CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Jhonata Diniz finishes 15% more of their wins
  • Jhonata Diniz finishes by KO 15% more often
  • the case against Tanner Boser lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tanner Boser out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Jhonata Diniz's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Boser Diniz
KO/TKO 17.2
38.1
Submission 2.0
0.1
Decision 14.7
28.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
17
R2
10
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Boser Diniz
Str/min 4.8
3.7
Sig Acc 54%
59%
Str Def 58%
58%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 45%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
43
BoserDiniz
Combined 93 20–167
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
BoserDiniz
Combined 0.0 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Boser

    Tanner Boser lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Boser

    Tanner Boser eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz finishes 15% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz finishes by KO 15% more often

  • 05 KO durability favours Boser

    Tanner Boser has been KO'd 22% less often

  • 06 Durability favours Boser

    Tanner Boser has been finished 22% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Chelsea Chandler
Chelsea Chandler
United States 6-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
15% | 85%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Melissa Croden
Melissa Croden
Canada 8-3-0 MMA nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Melissa Croden
85.5 %
050100
CI · 55 – 98 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Melissa Croden stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns
  • Melissa Croden avoids 19% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Chelsea Chandler finishes 21% more of their wins
  • Melissa Croden has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Chandler Croden
KO/TKO 3.4
17.8
Submission 2.6
6.2
Decision 8.6
61.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
8
R2
6
R3
70
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chandler Croden
Str/min 3.5
3.8
Sig Acc 45%
42%
Str Def 40%
59%
TD/min 0.05
0.12
Finish 50%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
52
ChandlerCroden
Combined 96 22–136
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
ChandlerCroden
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 70% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Croden

    Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown defence favours Croden

    Melissa Croden stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns

  • 03 Finish rate favours Chandler

    Chelsea Chandler finishes 21% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking defence favours Croden

    Melissa Croden avoids 19% more incoming strikes

  • 05 Submission rate favours Chandler

    Chelsea Chandler taps opponents 17% more often

  • 06 Striking volume favours Croden

    Melissa Croden lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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LJ
Louis Jourdain
Canada 1-0-0 Orthodox
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
TC
Timmy Cuamba
2-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Timmy Cuamba
63.2 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.053 · High
Why this pick
  • the case against Louis Jourdain comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Timmy Cuamba has a 5-fight UFC experience edge (5 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Jourdain Cuamba
KO/TKO 3.3
25.4
Submission 12.4
7.0
Decision 21.1
30.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
9
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jourdain Cuamba
Str/min 0.0
2.9
Sig Acc 0%
46%
Str Def 0%
56%
TD/min 0.00
0.10
Finish 0%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
35
JourdainCuamba
Combined 65 19–127
Takedowns
0.1
0.4
JourdainCuamba
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Jourdain

    Louis Jourdain comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Gilbert Urbina
Gilbert Urbina
United States 7-5-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
76% | 24%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Julien Leblanc
Julien Leblanc
Canada 10-3-0 nan 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gilbert Urbina
76.2 %
050100
CI · 46 – 98 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Gilbert Urbina lands 5.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gilbert Urbina finishes by KO 80% more often
  • Gilbert Urbina rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Julien Leblanc eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gilbert Urbina out-volumes opponents at 6.7 sig/min vs Julien Leblanc's 1.3
Method Breakdown
Urbina Leblanc
KO/TKO 19.5
8.9
Submission 26.4
5.7
Decision 30.4
9.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
49
R1
11
R2
0
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Urbina Leblanc
Str/min 6.7
1.3
Sig Acc 58%
51%
Str Def 48%
46%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 100%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
16
UrbinaLeblanc
Combined 56 10–123
Takedowns
1.0
0.1
UrbinaLeblanc
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina lands 5.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Leblanc

    Julien Leblanc eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina finishes by KO 80% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Finish rate favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina finishes 24% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Chad Anheliger
Chad Anheliger
Canada 13-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
41% | 59%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
SK
Steven Koslow
United States 6-1-0 Switch Stance 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Steven Koslow
59.4 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.094 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Steven Koslow finishes by KO 56% more often
  • Steven Koslow finishes 36% more of their wins
  • Steven Koslow hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Chad Anheliger lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • layoff Anheliger hasn't fought since Nov 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Chad Anheliger has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Anheliger Koslow
KO/TKO 13.7
8.3
Submission 4.8
25.8
Decision 22.0
25.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
9
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Anheliger Koslow
Str/min 3.1
0.6
Sig Acc 44%
29%
Str Def 54%
40%
TD/min 0.05
0.27
Finish 40%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
23
AnheligerKoslow
Combined 59 14–121
Takedowns
0.0
1.3
AnheligerKoslow
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Anheliger

    Chad Anheliger lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Anheliger

    Chad Anheliger eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Koslow

    Steven Koslow finishes by KO 56% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Koslow

    Steven Koslow finishes 36% more of their wins

  • 05 KO durability favours Anheliger

    Chad Anheliger has been KO'd 100% less often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Koslow

    Steven Koslow hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Louie Sutherland
Louie Sutherland
England 11-5-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 loss
60% | 40%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Javad Mahjoub
Javad Mahjoub
0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Louie Sutherland
59.5 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • the case against Javad Mahjoub comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Sutherland Mahjoub
KO/TKO 43.6
13.4
Submission 4.5
18.6
Decision 11.5
8.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
49
R1
19
R2
13
R3
20
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sutherland Mahjoub
Str/min 1.8
0.0
Sig Acc 69%
0%
Str Def 35%
0%
TD/min 0.30
0.00
Finish 75%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
16
13
SutherlandMahjoub
Combined 34 10–107
Takedowns
0.9
0.0
SutherlandMahjoub
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.4 of 3 rounds 20% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Mahjoub

    Javad Mahjoub comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alexander Volkanovski
Volkanovski
Title · Main Event
57%
Model Leans Evloev
2026-10-24
Movsar Evloev
Evloev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
2026
24
OCT
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
9
Bouts
Alexander Volkanovski
C Alexander Volkanovski
Australia 28-4-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.90
43% | 57%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 6:30 AM AEST
Movsar Evloev
Movsar Evloev
Russia 20-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 10-fight win streak
SB 1.90
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Movsar Evloev
57.1 %
050100
CI · 27 – 87 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak
  • Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 10-fight win streak (Alexander Volkanovski: 2)
Method Breakdown
Volkanovski Evloev
KO/TKO 17.5
15.4
Submission 3.3
5.3
Decision 22.1
36.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
0
R1
15
R2
13
R3
7
R4
4
R5
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkanovski Evloev
Str/min 6.0
3.9
Sig Acc 57%
48%
Str Def 59%
61%
TD/min 0.11
0.32
Finish 39%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
60
72
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 151 24–225
Takedowns
0.3
1.9
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 2.7 0.0–6.5
Fight length
Expected 4.0 of 5 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski finishes by KO 39% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Merab Dvalishvili
C Merab Dvalishvili
Georgia 21-5-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.39
38% | 62%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 5:45 AM AEST
Petr Yan
Petr Yan
Russia 20-5-0 Boxer Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
SB 1.56
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Petr Yan
62.3 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan finishes by KO 21% more often
  • the case against Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight win streak (Merab Dvalishvili: 0)
Method Breakdown
Dvalishvili Yan
KO/TKO 5.9
20.9
Submission 5.9
2.9
Decision 25.9
38.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
8
R1
12
R2
9
R3
5
R4
3
R5
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dvalishvili Yan
Str/min 4.4
5.2
Sig Acc 42%
54%
Str Def 54%
60%
TD/min 0.40
0.10
Finish 18%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
70
61
DvalishviliYan
Combined 158 23–231
Takedowns
2.0
0.3
DvalishviliYan
Combined 2.4 0.0–6.4
Fight length
Expected 3.9 of 5 rounds 64% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Yan

    Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Yan

    Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili hits 0.30 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Yan

    Petr Yan finishes by KO 21% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Yan

    Petr Yan is 13% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
76% | 24%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
LK
Lone'er Kavanagh
3-2-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
76.1 %
050100
CI · 46 – 98 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 47% more often
  • Ramazan Temirov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • layoff Temirov hasn't fought since Mar 2025 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight win streak (Lone'er Kavanagh: 0)
Method Breakdown
Temirov Kavanagh
KO/TKO 37.1
6.3
Submission 2.5
3.0
Decision 36.6
14.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
17
R2
7
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Kavanagh
Str/min 4.7
4.1
Sig Acc 41%
50%
Str Def 62%
54%
TD/min 0.05
0.08
Finish 67%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
46
43
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 105 21–144
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 0.5 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 27% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Arnold Allen
Arnold Allen
England 20-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
68% | 32%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Aaron Pico
Aaron Pico
United States 14-5-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Arnold Allen
67.6 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.091 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Arnold Allen has been KO'd 50% less often
  • Arnold Allen avoids 15% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Aaron Pico lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Aaron Pico out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Arnold Allen's 3.5
Method Breakdown
Allen Pico
KO/TKO 20.8
11.3
Submission 14.3
2.0
Decision 32.5
19.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
16
R2
8
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Allen Pico
Str/min 3.5
6.2
Sig Acc 44%
54%
Str Def 60%
45%
TD/min 0.08
0.44
Finish 27%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
45
AllenPico
Combined 92 21–141
Takedowns
0.6
1.0
AllenPico
Combined 2.5 0.0–6.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico hits 0.35 more takedowns per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Pico

    Aaron Pico finishes by KO 37% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Pico

    Aaron Pico finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 KO durability favours Allen

    Arnold Allen has been KO'd 50% less often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Allen

    Arnold Allen avoids 15% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov
Russia 40-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
68% | 32%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Alexander Volkov
68.2 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov finishes 14% more of their wins
  • Alexander Volkov is 10% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov has a 16-fight UFC experience edge (19 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Volkov Kuniev
KO/TKO 26.3
14.8
Submission 6.2
2.0
Decision 35.7
14.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
14
R2
9
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkov Kuniev
Str/min 5.1
3.7
Sig Acc 58%
48%
Str Def 54%
48%
TD/min 0.04
0.00
Finish 47%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
50
45
VolkovKuniev
Combined 111 23–147
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
VolkovKuniev
Combined 0.4 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev stuffs 23% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Finish rate favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov is 10% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov avoids 7% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Azamat Murzakanov
Azamat Murzakanov
Russia 16-1-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
43% | 57%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes
United States 16-5-0 Kickboxer Southpaw 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dominick Reyes
57.1 %
050100
CI · 27 – 87 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Dominick Reyes taps opponents 7% more often
  • the case against Azamat Murzakanov finishes by KO 19% more often
  • Azamat Murzakanov KOs 86% of opponents — Dominick Reyes has been KO'd in 27% of losses
Method Breakdown
Murzakanov Reyes
KO/TKO 24.2
35.2
Submission 1.6
3.1
Decision 17.1
18.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
17
R2
10
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Murzakanov Reyes
Str/min 4.5
5.0
Sig Acc 56%
54%
Str Def 56%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.02
Finish 86%
73%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
35
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 68 17–139
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 KO rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov finishes by KO 19% more often

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov finishes 12% more of their wins

  • 06 Submission rate favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes taps opponents 7% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Abus Magomedov
Abus Magomedov
Russia 28-7-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
39% | 61%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
CR
Cam Rowston
3-0-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Cam Rowston
61.5 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Abus Magomedov taps opponents 25% more often
  • Cam Rowston out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Abus Magomedov's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Magomedov Rowston
KO/TKO 13.0
25.1
Submission 9.0
11.1
Decision 16.5
25.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
20
R2
9
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Magomedov Rowston
Str/min 3.1
5.5
Sig Acc 49%
49%
Str Def 56%
54%
TD/min 0.17
0.11
Finish 62%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
30
MagomedovRowston
Combined 66 18–114
Takedowns
0.4
0.3
MagomedovRowston
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston finishes by KO 42% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Magomedov

    Abus Magomedov taps opponents 25% more often

  • 06 Control time favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston controls 22% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov
Ukraine 31-11-0 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
3% | 97%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
AY
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
3-0-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
96.6 %
050100
CI · 71 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight win streak (Nikita Krylov: 0)
Method Breakdown
Krylov Yakhyaev
KO/TKO 0.8
45.9
Submission 1.1
29.0
Decision 1.5
21.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
45
R1
20
R2
12
R3
23
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Krylov Yakhyaev
Str/min 4.4
4.9
Sig Acc 54%
58%
Str Def 48%
58%
TD/min 0.15
0.77
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
36
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 55 12–116
Takedowns
0.0
1.4
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 2.0 0.0–6.1
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 23% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev taps opponents 44% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev finishes 18% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson
United States 24-3-1 Switch Stance 1 win
47% | 53%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev
11-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nurullo Aliev
52.6 %
050100
CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.094 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Grant Dawson finishes 60% more of their wins
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 4-fight win streak (Grant Dawson: 1)
Method Breakdown
Dawson Aliev
KO/TKO 11.0
17.6
Submission 15.5
2.4
Decision 20.9
32.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
14
R2
10
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dawson Aliev
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 51%
42%
Str Def 45%
56%
TD/min 0.24
0.23
Finish 60%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
32
DawsonAliev
Combined 64 21–114
Takedowns
0.9
0.9
DawsonAliev
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson finishes 60% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking volume favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson taps opponents 33% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson finishes by KO 27% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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JK
Kropschot
Main Event
60%
Model Leans Kropschot
2026-10-31
Nick Klein
Klein
UFC Fight Night: Las Vegas
2026
31
OCT
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Las Vegas

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
2
Bouts
JK
Joe Kropschot
nan
60% | 40%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Nick Klein
Nick Klein
United States 6-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Joe Kropschot
59.9 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Joe Kropschot comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Kropschot Klein
KO/TKO 28.2
12.0
Submission 12.4
10.3
Decision 19.3
17.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
18
R2
7
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kropschot Klein
Str/min 0.0
2.1
Sig Acc 0%
47%
Str Def 0%
39%
TD/min 0.00
0.27
Finish 0%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
16
15
KropschotKlein
Combined 45 12–105
Takedowns
0.1
1.4
KropschotKlein
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Kropschot

    Joe Kropschot comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tainara Lisboa
Tainara Lisboa
Brazil 7-4-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
43% | 57%
Women's Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
LS
Lucia Szabova
0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Lucia Szabova
57.0 %
050100
CI · 27 – 87 · σ 0.043 · High
Why this pick
  • Lucia Szabova comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Lisboa Szabova
KO/TKO 8.2
20.1
Submission 13.4
10.1
Decision 21.4
26.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
11
R2
8
R3
5
R4
3
R5
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lisboa Szabova
Str/min 1.9
0.0
Sig Acc 42%
0%
Str Def 46%
0%
TD/min 0.10
0.00
Finish 70%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
28
LisboaSzabova
Combined 63 15–136
Takedowns
1.0
0.1
LisboaSzabova
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 3.2 of 5 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Szabova

    Lucia Szabova comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Sean Brady
Brady
Main Event
59%
Model Leans Bonfim
2026-11-07
Gabriel Bonfim
Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
2026
07
NOV
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
2
Bouts
Sean Brady
Sean Brady
United States 19-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
41% | 59%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim
Brazil 19-1-0 Striker Orthodox 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gabriel Bonfim
58.8 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.054 · High
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gabriel Bonfim finishes 8% more of their wins
  • the case against Sean Brady eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gabriel Bonfim rides a 5-fight win streak (Sean Brady: 1)
Method Breakdown
Brady Bonfim
KO/TKO 1.9
24.0
Submission 9.6
10.7
Decision 29.7
24.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
0
R1
0
R2
22
R3
15
R4
9
R5
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brady Bonfim
Str/min 4.1
4.7
Sig Acc 53%
48%
Str Def 60%
64%
TD/min 0.24
0.17
Finish 55%
62%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
61
45
BradyBonfim
Combined 121 22–212
Takedowns
1.2
0.1
BradyBonfim
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 4.2 of 5 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Brady

    Sean Brady eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Control time favours Brady

    Sean Brady controls 33% more cage time

  • 05 Finish rate favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim finishes 8% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Brady

    Sean Brady hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
Predictions soon
2026-09-15
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6
2026
15
SEP
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-09-22
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7
2026
22
SEP
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 23 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-09-29
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8
2026
29
SEP
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 30 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-10-06
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 9
2026
06
OCT
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 9

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 7 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-10-13
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10
2026
13
OCT
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 14 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-11-14
UFC 334
2026
14
NOV
predictions soon

UFC 334

Madison Square Garden, New York, USA
3
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
3 rds ⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
3 rds ⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.