Updated 2026-07-07 23:10 AEST
56
Bouts
8
Events
70
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Max Holloway
Holloway
Main Event
70%
Model Leans Holloway
2026-07-11
Conor McGregor
McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026
11
JUL
⚡ Next Event

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA
14
Bouts
11
Value Bouts
Max Holloway
Max Holloway
United States 27-9-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.45
70% | 30%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 1:30 PM AEST
Conor McGregor
Conor McGregor
Ireland 22-6-0 Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.79
Breakdown ▼
5 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Max Holloway
70.0 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.050 · High
Why this pick
  • Max Holloway lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Max Holloway stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns
  • Max Holloway comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Conor McGregor finishes 39% more of their wins
  • layoff McGregor hasn't fought since Jul 2021 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Max Holloway out-volumes opponents at 6.9 sig/min vs Conor McGregor's 5.3
Method Breakdown
Holloway McGregor
KO/TKO 43.1
15.2
Submission 2.7
2.9
Decision 24.1
11.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
16
R2
10
R3
10
R4
3
R5
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holloway McGregor
Str/min 6.9
5.3
Sig Acc 48%
50%
Str Def 59%
54%
TD/min 0.02
0.04
Finish 47%
86%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
69
56
HollowayMcGregor
Combined 132 20–263
Takedowns
0.0
0.4
HollowayMcGregor
Combined 0.3 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.9 of 5 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Holloway

    Max Holloway lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours McGregor

    Conor McGregor finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours McGregor

    Conor McGregor finishes by KO 34% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Holloway

    Max Holloway stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Loss streak favours Holloway

    Max Holloway comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Submission rate favours Holloway

    Max Holloway taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 5 flagged · 71 markets analysed
  • Max Holloway wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 24%
    Bookies 15%
    EV / $100 +$57
    Stake 2.6%
    6.50
    $26 returns $169
    +$143 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 36%
    Bookies 24%
    EV / $100 +$53
    Stake 4.1%
    4.25
    $41 returns $174
    +$133 profit
  • Max Holloway wins by Sub or Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 27%
    Bookies 21%
    EV / $100 +$29
    Stake 1.9%
    4.80
    $19 returns $91
    +$72 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 5
    Strong edge
    Model 39%
    Bookies 31%
    EV / $100 +$27
    Stake 3.0%
    3.26
    $30 returns $98
    +$68 profit
  • Conor McGregor wins in R4+ or by Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 16%
    Bookies 12%
    EV / $100 +$24
    Stake 0.9%
    8.00
    $9 returns $72
    +$63 profit
Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett
England 23-4-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.15
34% | 66%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:45 PM AEST
Benoit Saint Denis
Benoit Saint Denis
France 17-3-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
SB 1.71
Breakdown ▼
7 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Benoit Saint Denis
66.0 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.046 · High
Why this pick
  • Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Benoit Saint Denis finishes 29% more of their wins
  • Benoit Saint Denis hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Paddy Pimblett eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight win streak (Paddy Pimblett: 0)
Method Breakdown
Pimblett Denis
KO/TKO 10.0
17.9
Submission 9.5
14.0
Decision 14.5
34.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
22
R2
8
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pimblett Denis
Str/min 5.5
5.6
Sig Acc 53%
59%
Str Def 43%
42%
TD/min 0.05
0.28
Finish 62%
92%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
34
PimblettDenis
Combined 69 18–157
Takedowns
0.1
1.8
PimblettDenis
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis finishes 29% more of their wins

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Pimblett

    Paddy Pimblett eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis stuffs 28% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 7 flagged · 53 markets analysed
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 34%
    Bookies 19%
    EV / $100 +$80
    Stake 4.7%
    5.30
    $47 returns $249
    +$202 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 34%
    Bookies 20%
    EV / $100 +$70
    Stake 4.4%
    5.00
    $44 returns $220
    +$176 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 52%
    Bookies 39%
    EV / $100 +$33
    Stake 5.2%
    2.55
    $52 returns $133
    +$81 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 49%
    Bookies 38%
    EV / $100 +$29
    Stake 4.3%
    2.65
    $43 returns $114
    +$71 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 48%
    Bookies 39%
    EV / $100 +$23
    Stake 3.6%
    2.55
    $36 returns $92
    +$56 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins
    Strong edge
    Model 66%
    Bookies 58%
    EV / $100 +$13
    Stake 4.5%
    1.71
    $45 returns $77
    +$32 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 3
    Strong edge
    Model 57%
    Bookies 51%
    EV / $100 +$10
    Stake 2.7%
    1.95
    $27 returns $53
    +$26 profit
Cory Sandhagen
Cory Sandhagen
United States 18-6-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.67
53% | 47%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST
Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista
United States 17-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
SB 2.21
Breakdown ▼
2 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Cory Sandhagen
52.6 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Cory Sandhagen eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cory Sandhagen finishes by KO 23% more often
  • the case against Mario Bautista rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Cory Sandhagen has never been finished in 16 fights
Method Breakdown
Sandhagen Bautista
KO/TKO 17.0
8.5
Submission 7.4
11.7
Decision 28.3
27.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
16
R2
8
R3
55
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sandhagen Bautista
Str/min 4.9
5.3
Sig Acc 45%
49%
Str Def 57%
55%
TD/min 0.08
0.13
Finish 50%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
61
48
SandhagenBautista
Combined 100 21–158
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
SandhagenBautista
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sandhagen

    Cory Sandhagen eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Sandhagen

    Cory Sandhagen finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista taps opponents 22% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista hits 0.05 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 2 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Mario Bautista wins by KO or Sub
    Strong edge
    Model 20%
    Bookies 13%
    EV / $100 +$52
    Stake 2.0%
    7.50
    $20 returns $150
    +$130 profit
  • Finish before Round 3
    Strong edge
    Model 36%
    Bookies 30%
    EV / $100 +$20
    Stake 2.2%
    3.32
    $22 returns $73
    +$51 profit
Brandon Royval
Brandon Royval
United States 17-9-0 Brawler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.79
34% | 66%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:45 AM AEST
LK
Lone'er Kavanagh
3-1-0 Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.45
Breakdown ▼
5 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Lone'er Kavanagh
65.8 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Lone'er Kavanagh eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Lone'er Kavanagh rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Lone'er Kavanagh stuffs 49% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Brandon Royval lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Royval out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Lone'er Kavanagh's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Royval Kavanagh
KO/TKO 3.7
10.6
Submission 11.9
3.6
Decision 18.6
51.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
9
R2
5
R3
70
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Royval Kavanagh
Str/min 5.5
4.1
Sig Acc 42%
48%
Str Def 43%
56%
TD/min 0.04
0.08
Finish 58%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
52
RoyvalKavanagh
Combined 96 20–168
Takedowns
0.2
0.4
RoyvalKavanagh
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 70% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Royval

    Brandon Royval lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Royval

    Brandon Royval finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 04 Win streak favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh stuffs 49% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Royval

    Brandon Royval taps opponents 25% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 5 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Lone'er Kavanagh wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 52%
    Bookies 38%
    EV / $100 +$35
    Stake 5.5%
    2.62
    $54 returns $141
    +$87 profit
  • Lone'er Kavanagh wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 52%
    Bookies 40%
    EV / $100 +$29
    Stake 4.8%
    2.50
    $48 returns $120
    +$72 profit
  • Lone'er Kavanagh wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 55%
    Bookies 43%
    EV / $100 +$27
    Stake 5.2%
    2.30
    $52 returns $120
    +$68 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 70%
    Bookies 59%
    EV / $100 +$19
    Stake 6.8%
    1.69
    $68 returns $115
    +$47 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 3
    Strong edge
    Model 75%
    Bookies 69%
    EV / $100 +$9
    Stake 4.9%
    1.44
    $49 returns $71
    +$22 profit
King Green
King Green
United States 35-17-1 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 2.30
42% | 58%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:15 AM AEST
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney
United States 18-8-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 win
SB 1.62
Breakdown ▼
10 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Terrance McKinney
58.3 %
050100
90% CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Terrance McKinney finishes 57% more of their wins
  • Terrance McKinney lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney finishes by KO 32% more often
  • the case against King Green rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • King Green rides a 3-fight win streak (Terrance McKinney: 1)
Method Breakdown
Green McKinney
KO/TKO 16.1
21.4
Submission 8.3
9.4
Decision 17.3
27.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
19
R2
6
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Green McKinney
Str/min 6.6
7.6
Sig Acc 54%
56%
Str Def 62%
42%
TD/min 0.09
0.20
Finish 43%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
38
GreenMcKinney
Combined 74 18–157
Takedowns
0.0
1.1
GreenMcKinney
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Green

    King Green rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes 57% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking volume favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Green

    King Green eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes by KO 32% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Green

    King Green avoids 20% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 10 flagged · 55 markets analysed
  • Terrance McKinney wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 28%
    Bookies 3%
    EV / $100 +$700
    Stake 6.2%
    29.00
    $62 returns $1798
    +$1736 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 45%
    Bookies 10%
    EV / $100 +$371
    Stake 9.8%
    10.50
    $98 returns $1029
    +$931 profit
  • Fight goes to decision
    Strong edge
    Model 45%
    Bookies 11%
    EV / $100 +$326
    Stake 9.6%
    9.50
    $96 returns $912
    +$816 profit
  • King Green wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 17%
    Bookies 5%
    EV / $100 +$228
    Stake 3.2%
    19.00
    $32 returns $608
    +$576 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 3
    Strong edge
    Model 51%
    Bookies 17%
    EV / $100 +$204
    Stake 10.2%
    6.00
    $102 returns $612
    +$510 profit
  • King Green wins in R3+ or by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 21%
    Bookies 10%
    EV / $100 +$111
    Stake 3.1%
    10.00
    $31 returns $310
    +$279 profit
  • King Green wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 26%
    Bookies 16%
    EV / $100 +$60
    Stake 2.9%
    6.25
    $28 returns $175
    +$147 profit
  • Under 2.5 rounds
    Strong edge
    Model 52%
    Bookies 36%
    EV / $100 +$44
    Stake 6.2%
    2.75
    $62 returns $170
    +$108 profit
  • Terrance McKinney wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 37%
    Bookies 28%
    EV / $100 +$33
    Stake 3.2%
    3.60
    $32 returns $115
    +$83 profit
  • Terrance McKinney wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 49%
    Bookies 39%
    EV / $100 +$25
    Stake 4.0%
    2.55
    $40 returns $102
    +$62 profit
Robert Whittaker
Robert Whittaker
Australia 27-9-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.70
51% | 49%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:35 AM AEST
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov
Ukraine 31-11-0 Karate Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.15
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Robert Whittaker
50.8 %
050100
90% CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.081 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Robert Whittaker stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Nikita Krylov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Robert Whittaker has never been finished in 24 fights
Method Breakdown
Whittaker Krylov
KO/TKO 17.5
17.1
Submission 6.9
10.4
Decision 26.5
21.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
23
R2
7
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Whittaker Krylov
Str/min 4.4
4.4
Sig Acc 43%
54%
Str Def 60%
48%
TD/min 0.05
0.14
Finish 42%
81%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
39
WhittakerKrylov
Combined 79 18–143
Takedowns
0.2
0.8
WhittakerKrylov
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 03 Win streak favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov taps opponents 24% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Whittaker

    Robert Whittaker stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov is 11% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 53 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 53 markets analysed.
Gable Steveson
Gable Steveson
United States 3-0-0 Wrestler nan
SB 1.03
82% | 18%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:10 AM AEST
Elisha Ellison
Elisha Ellison
United States 5-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 12.50
Breakdown ▼
10 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Gable Steveson
82.4 %
050100
90% CI · 52 – 98 · σ 0.037 · High
Why this pick
  • Gable Steveson comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Steveson Ellison
KO/TKO 60.8
8.6
Submission 2.0
4.1
Decision 19.7
4.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
39
R1
24
R2
12
R3
25
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Steveson Ellison
Str/min 0.0
1.6
Sig Acc 0%
33%
Str Def 0%
41%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
17
StevesonEllison
Combined 49 13–122
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
StevesonEllison
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 25% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 11 flagged · 54 markets analysed
  • Gable Steveson wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 20%
    Bookies 5%
    EV / $100 +$313
    Stake 3.9%
    21.00
    $39 returns $819
    +$780 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 25%
    Bookies 8%
    EV / $100 +$207
    Stake 4.5%
    12.50
    $45 returns $562
    +$518 profit
  • Ends in Round 3+ / Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 37%
    Bookies 14%
    EV / $100 +$156
    Stake 6.5%
    7.00
    $65 returns $455
    +$390 profit
  • Elisha Ellison wins
    Strong edge
    Model 18%
    Bookies 8%
    EV / $100 +$119
    Stake 2.6%
    12.50
    $26 returns $325
    +$299 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 2
    Strong edge
    Model 61%
    Bookies 29%
    EV / $100 +$111
    Stake 11.3%
    3.45
    $113 returns $390
    +$277 profit
  • Elisha Ellison wins by KO or Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 13%
    Bookies 7%
    EV / $100 +$102
    Stake 1.8%
    15.00
    $18 returns $270
    +$252 profit
  • Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R3
    Solid edge
    Model 10%
    Bookies 5%
    EV / $100 +$101
    Stake 1.3%
    21.00
    $13 returns $273
    +$260 profit
  • Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3
    Strong edge
    Model 29%
    Bookies 15%
    EV / $100 +$91
    Stake 4.1%
    6.50
    $41 returns $266
    +$226 profit
  • Elisha Ellison wins by KO or Sub
    Solid edge
    Model 13%
    Bookies 7%
    EV / $100 +$90
    Stake 1.6%
    15.00
    $16 returns $240
    +$224 profit
  • Fight ends by finish in Round 3
    Solid edge
    Model 12%
    Bookies 7%
    EV / $100 +$66
    Stake 1.3%
    14.00
    $13 returns $182
    +$169 profit
  • Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R2
    Strong edge
    Model 20%
    Bookies 12%
    EV / $100 +$58
    Stake 2.1%
    8.00
    $21 returns $168
    +$147 profit
Cody Garbrandt
Cody Garbrandt
United States 15-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
SB 4.25
30% | 70%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:40 AM AEST
Adrian Yanez
Adrian Yanez
United States 17-6-1 Boxer Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.23
Breakdown ▼
2 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Adrian Yanez
70.1 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.070 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Adrian Yanez lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Adrian Yanez finishes by KO 11% more often
  • the case against Cody Garbrandt eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Adrian Yanez out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Cody Garbrandt's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Garbrandt Yanez
KO/TKO 11.6
41.3
Submission 1.8
4.1
Decision 16.4
24.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
17
R2
7
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Garbrandt Yanez
Str/min 2.8
5.9
Sig Acc 40%
41%
Str Def 59%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 65%
70%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
42
GarbrandtYanez
Combined 84 17–142
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
GarbrandtYanez
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Yanez

    Adrian Yanez lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Loss streak favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 KO rate favours Yanez

    Adrian Yanez finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 2 flagged · 53 markets analysed
  • Cody Garbrandt wins
    Strong edge
    Model 30%
    Bookies 24%
    EV / $100 +$27
    Stake 2.1%
    4.25
    $21 returns $89
    +$68 profit
  • Cody Garbrandt wins by KO or Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 28%
    Bookies 23%
    EV / $100 +$23
    Stake 1.7%
    4.40
    $17 returns $75
    +$58 profit
Kai Kamaka III
Kai Kamaka III
United States 18-7-1 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
SB 3.34
31% | 69%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:15 AM AEST
Luke Riley
Luke Riley
England 13-0-0 Striker nan 2-fight win streak
SB 1.33
Breakdown ▼
6 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Luke Riley
69.5 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Luke Riley eats 3.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Luke Riley finishes 50% more of their wins
  • Luke Riley finishes by KO 50% more often
  • the case against Kai Kamaka III lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kai Kamaka III out-volumes opponents at 7.0 sig/min vs Luke Riley's 5.6
Method Breakdown
III Riley
KO/TKO 9.0
12.3
Submission 0.1
0.1
Decision 21.4
57.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
10
R1
8
R2
4
R3
78
DEC
Key Stats career avg
III Riley
Str/min 7.0
5.6
Sig Acc 66%
57%
Str Def 59%
65%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
52
IIIRiley
Combined 121 21–167
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
IIIRiley
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 78% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Riley

    Luke Riley eats 3.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours III

    Kai Kamaka III lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Riley

    Luke Riley finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Riley

    Luke Riley finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Riley

    Luke Riley rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours III

    Kai Kamaka III stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 6 flagged · 53 markets analysed
  • Luke Riley wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 57%
    Bookies 44%
    EV / $100 +$28
    Stake 5.7%
    2.25
    $57 returns $128
    +$71 profit
  • Luke Riley wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 57%
    Bookies 45%
    EV / $100 +$26
    Stake 5.3%
    2.20
    $53 returns $117
    +$64 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 78%
    Bookies 65%
    EV / $100 +$22
    Stake 9.8%
    1.55
    $98 returns $152
    +$54 profit
  • Luke Riley wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 57%
    Bookies 49%
    EV / $100 +$17
    Stake 4.1%
    2.05
    $41 returns $84
    +$43 profit
  • Over 2.5 rounds
    Strong edge
    Model 81%
    Bookies 69%
    EV / $100 +$16
    Stake 9.1%
    1.44
    $91 returns $131
    +$40 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 3
    Strong edge
    Model 83%
    Bookies 73%
    EV / $100 +$13
    Stake 8.9%
    1.37
    $89 returns $122
    +$33 profit
Wang Cong
Wang Cong
China 9-1-0 Striker Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.86
51% | 49%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:40 AM AEST
Tracy Cortez
Tracy Cortez
United States 12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.98
Breakdown ▼
2 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Wang Cong
51.1 %
050100
90% CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Wang Cong lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Wang Cong rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Wang Cong eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Wang Cong rides a 3-fight win streak (Tracy Cortez: 0)
Method Breakdown
Cong Cortez
KO/TKO 10.3
9.4
Submission 4.4
4.2
Decision 36.4
35.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
9
R2
7
R3
72
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cong Cortez
Str/min 6.2
3.8
Sig Acc 56%
48%
Str Def 63%
58%
TD/min 0.04
0.13
Finish 40%
12%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
46
CongCortez
Combined 108 23–157
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
CongCortez
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 72% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Cong

    Wang Cong lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Cong

    Wang Cong rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Cong

    Wang Cong eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Cong

    Wang Cong finishes 28% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Cong

    Wang Cong finishes by KO 20% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Cong

    Wang Cong stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 2 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Wang Cong wins by DEC
    Solid edge
    Model 36%
    Bookies 31%
    EV / $100 +$16
    Stake 1.9%
    3.20
    $19 returns $61
    +$42 profit
  • Wang Cong wins in R3+ or by Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 40%
    Bookies 36%
    EV / $100 +$13
    Stake 1.8%
    2.80
    $18 returns $50
    +$32 profit
Cesar Almeida
Cesar Almeida
Brazil 7-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.72
21% | 79%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:15 AM AEST
Damian Pinas
Damian Pinas
9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.46
Breakdown ▼
7 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Damian Pinas
79.3 %
050100
90% CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Damian Pinas lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas finishes 60% more of their wins
  • Damian Pinas out-volumes opponents at 6.0 sig/min vs Cesar Almeida's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Almeida Pinas
KO/TKO 8.2
38.8
Submission 1.2
5.4
Decision 11.4
35.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
9
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Almeida Pinas
Str/min 3.1
6.0
Sig Acc 58%
65%
Str Def 46%
77%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 40%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
41
AlmeidaPinas
Combined 71 20–127
Takedowns
0.0
0.3
AlmeidaPinas
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes 60% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes by KO 60% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas stuffs 53% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 7 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Damian Pinas wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 35%
    Bookies 17%
    EV / $100 +$111
    Stake 5.5%
    6.00
    $55 returns $330
    +$275 profit
  • Damian Pinas wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 40%
    Bookies 24%
    EV / $100 +$72
    Stake 5.5%
    4.25
    $55 returns $234
    +$179 profit
  • Damian Pinas wins in R3+ or by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 44%
    Bookies 27%
    EV / $100 +$66
    Stake 6.0%
    3.75
    $60 returns $225
    +$165 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 46%
    Bookies 30%
    EV / $100 +$53
    Stake 5.8%
    3.30
    $58 returns $191
    +$133 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 3
    Strong edge
    Model 56%
    Bookies 44%
    EV / $100 +$26
    Stake 5.1%
    2.25
    $51 returns $115
    +$64 profit
  • Damian Pinas wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 74%
    Bookies 62%
    EV / $100 +$20
    Stake 8.0%
    1.62
    $80 returns $130
    +$50 profit
  • Damian Pinas wins
    Strong edge
    Model 79%
    Bookies 68%
    EV / $100 +$16
    Stake 8.6%
    1.46
    $86 returns $126
    +$40 profit
Ethyn Ewing
Ethyn Ewing
United States 10-2-0 MMA nan 2-fight win streak
39% | 61%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
Farid Basharat
Farid Basharat
15-0-0 MMA Orthodox 6-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Farid Basharat
60.7 %
050100
90% CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Farid Basharat rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Farid Basharat eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Ethyn Ewing lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Farid Basharat rides a 6-fight win streak (Ethyn Ewing: 2)
Method Breakdown
Ewing Basharat
KO/TKO 10.8
9.9
Submission 7.5
13.7
Decision 21.1
37.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
7
R3
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ewing Basharat
Str/min 6.1
3.6
Sig Acc 45%
48%
Str Def 63%
62%
TD/min 0.09
0.23
Finish 41%
17%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
42
EwingBasharat
Combined 83 20–145
Takedowns
0.7
1.4
EwingBasharat
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 58% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Basharat

    Farid Basharat rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Basharat

    Farid Basharat eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Ewing

    Ethyn Ewing lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Ewing

    Ethyn Ewing finishes by KO 41% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Ewing

    Ethyn Ewing finishes 24% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Ewing

    Ethyn Ewing stuffs 45% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
ZR
Zachary Reese
United States 10-3-0
— | —
No model pick
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
Ryan Gandra
Ryan Gandra
Brazil 9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model has no features to price this bout. Career stats below where available.

Fighter Statistics

ReeseGandra
Career record 10-3-0 9-1-0
Last 3 win % — 100%
Finish rate — 100%
KO/TKO rate — 100%
Sub rate — 0%
Sig strikes / min ↑ — 20.5

Predicted Outcomes

The model only prices a bout when both fighters have a fight history to build features from. One corner here has no data in any source, so there is no win probability or method breakdown to show.

Tip: the career stats on the left are pulled from UFC.com where available — use KO/TKO vs sub rate to gauge likely method.

Cody Durden
Cody Durden
United States 18-10-1 Striker Southpaw 1 win
SB 3.07
53% | 47%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:05 AM AEST
Alessandro Costa
Alessandro Costa
Brazil 15-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.38
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Cody Durden
52.6 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.108 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Cody Durden hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Alessandro Costa finishes by KO 65% more often
  • Cody Durden has never been finished in 16 fights
Method Breakdown
Durden Costa
KO/TKO 15.6
20.2
Submission 8.1
8.8
Decision 29.0
18.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
22
R2
8
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Durden Costa
Str/min 3.2
3.9
Sig Acc 45%
48%
Str Def 51%
53%
TD/min 0.27
0.07
Finish 50%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
25
DurdenCosta
Combined 56 17–130
Takedowns
1.0
0.1
DurdenCosta
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 KO rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa finishes by KO 65% more often

  • 02 Finish rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking volume favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Durden

    Cody Durden hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa stuffs 27% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Strikes absorbed favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Cody Durden wins
    Strong edge
    Model 53%
    Bookies 33%
    EV / $100 +$62
    Stake 7.4%
    3.07
    $74 returns $227
    +$153 profit
Kamaru Usman
Usman
Main Event
71%
Model Leans Plessis
2026-07-18
Dricus Du Plessis
Plessis
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026
18
JUL
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, USA
11
Bouts
Kamaru Usman
Kamaru Usman
Nigeria 21-4-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
SB 3.50
29% | 71%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 12:45 PM AEST
Dricus Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis
South Africa 23-3-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.29
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dricus Du Plessis
71.3 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.053 · High
Why this pick
  • Dricus Du Plessis lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dricus Du Plessis finishes 28% more of their wins
  • Dricus Du Plessis taps opponents 15% more often
  • the case against Kamaru Usman eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dricus Du Plessis has never been finished in 10 fights
Method Breakdown
Usman Plessis
KO/TKO 11.1
23.9
Submission 0.9
35.5
Decision 16.7
12.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
21
R2
11
R3
7
R4
3
R5
29
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Usman Plessis
Str/min 4.2
5.2
Sig Acc 52%
49%
Str Def 55%
53%
TD/min 0.19
0.15
Finish 32%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
66
59
UsmanPlessis
Combined 129 22–214
Takedowns
1.0
0.2
UsmanPlessis
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 29% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis finishes 28% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman stuffs 55% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis taps opponents 15% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier
United States 18-9-0 Striker Switch Stance 1 loss
12% | 88%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan
United Kingdom 14-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Christian Leroy Duncan
88.5 %
050100
90% CI · 58 – 98 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight win streak (Jared Cannonier: 0)
Method Breakdown
Cannonier Duncan
KO/TKO 3.7
28.2
Submission 0.9
8.0
Decision 7.0
52.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
14
R2
8
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cannonier Duncan
Str/min 4.4
4.4
Sig Acc 50%
58%
Str Def 56%
53%
TD/min 0.04
0.02
Finish 50%
56%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
55
CannonierDuncan
Combined 99 22–149
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
CannonierDuncan
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Finish rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes 6% more of their wins

  • 05 Loss streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 KO rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes by KO 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland
United States 29-15-0 Kung Fu Orthodox 1 win
50% | 50%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Jacobe Smith
Jacobe Smith
United States 12-0-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kevin Holland
50.3 %
050100
90% CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.084 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kevin Holland has a 26-fight UFC experience edge (29 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Holland Smith
KO/TKO 23.5
23.5
Submission 10.1
4.9
Decision 16.7
21.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
19
R2
9
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holland Smith
Str/min 4.2
6.0
Sig Acc 50%
56%
Str Def 50%
46%
TD/min 0.06
0.26
Finish 55%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
33
HollandSmith
Combined 75 19–134
Takedowns
0.0
1.3
HollandSmith
Combined 2.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith finishes by KO 35% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland

    Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Chase Hooper
Chase Hooper
United States 16-5-1 Grappler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
100% | 0%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Mitch Ramirez
Mitch Ramirez
United States 8-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Chase Hooper
100.0 %
050100
90% CI · 86 – 98 · σ 0.000 · High
Why this pick
  • Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often
  • the case against Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often
  • Chase Hooper out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Mitch Ramirez's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Hooper Ramirez
KO/TKO 23.3
0.0
Submission 41.6
0.0
Decision 35.1
0.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
18
R2
9
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hooper Ramirez
Str/min 4.4
2.8
Sig Acc 48%
35%
Str Def 41%
38%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 69%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
21
HooperRamirez
Combined 43 11–122
Takedowns
1.6
0.1
HooperRamirez
Combined 2.4 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Ramirez

    Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO durability favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper has been KO'd 77% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tabatha Ricci
Tabatha Ricci
Brazil 12-4-0 Judo Orthodox 1 loss
30% | 70%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Fatima Kline
Fatima Kline
United States 9-1-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Fatima Kline
69.7 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Fatima Kline eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Fatima Kline lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight win streak (Tabatha Ricci: 0)
Method Breakdown
Ricci Kline
KO/TKO 0.1
12.1
Submission 6.6
4.5
Decision 23.6
53.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
7
R2
4
R3
77
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ricci Kline
Str/min 4.0
5.0
Sig Acc 37%
50%
Str Def 58%
57%
TD/min 0.17
0.13
Finish 27%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
49
RicciKline
Combined 107 22–184
Takedowns
1.2
0.2
RicciKline
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 77% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Kline

    Fatima Kline eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Kline

    Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Kline

    Fatima Kline lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Kline

    Fatima Kline finishes by KO 32% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Kline

    Fatima Kline finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Kline

    Fatima Kline is 13% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alberto Montes
Alberto Montes
Venezuela 12-1-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
38% | 62%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen
United States 10-0-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tommy McMillen
61.8 %
050100
90% CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Tommy McMillen lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen finishes by KO 76% more often
  • Tommy McMillen avoids 4% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Alberto Montes eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen out-volumes opponents at 14.2 sig/min vs Alberto Montes's 4.3
Method Breakdown
Montes McMillen
KO/TKO 9.1
31.6
Submission 11.4
4.5
Decision 17.7
25.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
17
R2
5
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Montes McMillen
Str/min 4.3
14.2
Sig Acc 42%
42%
Str Def 63%
67%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 76%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
36
MontesMcMillen
Combined 77 16–163
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
MontesMcMillen
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Montes

    Alberto Montes eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen finishes by KO 76% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Montes

    Alberto Montes taps opponents 76% more often

  • 05 Striking defence favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen avoids 4% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Control time favours Montes

    Alberto Montes controls 3% more cage time

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Veronica Hardy
Veronica Hardy
Venezuela 10-5-1 MMA Southpaw 1 win
48% | 52%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Dione Barbosa
Dione Barbosa
Brazil 9-4-0 Grappler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dione Barbosa
52.3 %
050100
90% CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
  • Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dione Barbosa has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Hardy Barbosa
KO/TKO 16.9
3.5
Submission 4.5
9.8
Decision 26.3
39.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
12
R2
7
R3
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hardy Barbosa
Str/min 3.1
2.3
Sig Acc 46%
45%
Str Def 50%
64%
TD/min 0.05
0.16
Finish 30%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
35
HardyBarbosa
Combined 67 20–127
Takedowns
0.1
1.6
HardyBarbosa
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 05 Striking defence favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes

  • 06 KO rate favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy finishes by KO 10% more often

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Austin Bashi
Austin Bashi
United States 14-1-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
50% | 50%
Featherweight 3 rds
Jose Delgado
Jose Delgado
United States 10-2-0 Switch Stance 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Austin Bashi
50.2 %
050100
90% CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Austin Bashi eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Austin Bashi taps opponents 41% more often
  • Austin Bashi hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Jose Delgado lands 6.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Jose Delgado out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Austin Bashi's 1.1
Method Breakdown
Bashi Delgado
KO/TKO 8.7
19.7
Submission 10.8
5.0
Decision 30.6
25.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
12
R2
13
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bashi Delgado
Str/min 1.1
7.2
Sig Acc 36%
54%
Str Def 49%
51%
TD/min 0.18
0.03
Finish 41%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
30
BashiDelgado
Combined 70 19–134
Takedowns
1.7
0.3
BashiDelgado
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado lands 6.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi taps opponents 41% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado is 18% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

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Alvin Hines
Alvin Hines
United States 7-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
26% | 74%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Allen Frye Jr.
Allen Frye Jr.
United States 6-1-0 nan 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Allen Frye Jr.
74.3 %
050100
90% CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Allen Frye Jr. eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Allen Frye Jr. controls 52% more cage time
  • Allen Frye Jr. is 7% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Alvin Hines lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alvin Hines out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Allen Frye Jr.'s 2.2
Method Breakdown
Hines Jr.
KO/TKO 11.7
29.8
Submission 4.6
4.1
Decision 9.5
40.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
15
R2
8
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hines Jr.
Str/min 5.5
2.2
Sig Acc 32%
38%
Str Def 38%
36%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
30
HinesJr.
Combined 75 16–129
Takedowns
0.2
0.2
HinesJr.
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hines

    Alvin Hines lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Control time favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. controls 52% more cage time

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Hines

    Alvin Hines hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. is 7% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours Hines

    Alvin Hines avoids 2% more incoming strikes

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Felipe Franco
Felipe Franco
Brazil 10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
47% | 53%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
LJ
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Brazil 1-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
52.5 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.088 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Levi Rodrigues Jr. comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Felipe Franco has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Franco Jr.
KO/TKO 14.1
19.2
Submission 13.0
7.2
Decision 20.4
26.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
9
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Franco Jr.
Str/min 1.1
0.0
Sig Acc 27%
0%
Str Def 41%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
28
FrancoJr.
Combined 54 16–126
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
FrancoJr.
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Jr.

    Levi Rodrigues Jr. comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Alden Coria
Alden Coria
United States 12-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak
86% | 14%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Stewart Nicoll
Stewart Nicoll
8-3-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Alden Coria
86.1 %
050100
90% CI · 56 – 98 · σ 0.084 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Alden Coria eats 3.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Alden Coria lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Stewart Nicoll finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Alden Coria has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Coria Nicoll
KO/TKO 22.3
0.1
Submission 7.0
3.4
Decision 56.8
10.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
10
R2
4
R3
67
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Coria Nicoll
Str/min 3.8
3.2
Sig Acc 37%
35%
Str Def 70%
50%
TD/min 0.10
0.10
Finish 41%
59%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
28
CoriaNicoll
Combined 75 16–135
Takedowns
1.0
0.2
CoriaNicoll
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 67% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Coria

    Alden Coria eats 3.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Coria

    Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Coria

    Alden Coria lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Coria

    Alden Coria stuffs 43% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Finish rate favours Nicoll

    Stewart Nicoll finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 06 Loss streak favours Coria

    Alden Coria comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

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Khalil Rountree Jr.
Jr.
Main Event
79%
Model Leans Ankalaev
2026-07-25
Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr.
2026
25
JUL
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr.

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
9
Bouts
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Khalil Rountree Jr.
United States 15-7-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
SB 3.40
21% | 79%
Light Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 4:45 AM AEST
Magomed Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev
Russia 21-2-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.30
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Ankalaev
78.9 %
050100
90% CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Magomed Ankalaev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Magomed Ankalaev stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns
  • Magomed Ankalaev is 12% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes 17% more of their wins
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. has never been finished in 18 fights
Method Breakdown
Jr. Ankalaev
KO/TKO 12.0
44.5
Submission 1.9
3.6
Decision 7.1
30.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
17
R2
9
R3
6
R4
3
R5
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jr. Ankalaev
Str/min 3.9
3.7
Sig Acc 41%
53%
Str Def 50%
56%
TD/min 0.00
0.05
Finish 67%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
45
51
Jr.Ankalaev
Combined 108 19–213
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
Jr.Ankalaev
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.9 of 5 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes 17% more of their wins

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 KO rate favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes by KO 17% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev is 12% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking volume favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
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Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
63% | 37%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg
Australia 14-4-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
63.1 %
050100
90% CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.048 · High
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes 25% more of their wins
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 25% more often
  • Ramazan Temirov stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Steve Erceg lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ramazan Temirov has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Temirov Erceg
KO/TKO 16.8
1.8
Submission 0.1
11.4
Decision 46.2
23.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
10
R2
5
R3
70
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Erceg
Str/min 4.4
4.6
Sig Acc 40%
48%
Str Def 59%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.08
Finish 50%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
51
TemirovErceg
Combined 105 22–160
Takedowns
0.2
0.2
TemirovErceg
Combined 0.8 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 70% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 25% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking volume favours Erceg

    Steve Erceg lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Erceg

    Steve Erceg is 7% more accurate on the feet

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Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 1 win
29% | 71%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Tyrell Fortune
Tyrell Fortune
United States 18-3-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tyrell Fortune
71.3 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.053 · High
Why this pick
  • Tyrell Fortune hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
  • Tyrell Fortune avoids 11% more incoming strikes
  • Tyrell Fortune is 7% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Rizvan Kuniev lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rizvan Kuniev has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Kuniev Fortune
KO/TKO 7.0
33.5
Submission 3.0
3.7
Decision 18.7
34.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
8
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kuniev Fortune
Str/min 2.9
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
51%
Str Def 46%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.20
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
34
KunievFortune
Combined 59 19–122
Takedowns
0.1
1.1
KunievFortune
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown volume favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking defence favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune avoids 11% more incoming strikes

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune is 7% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune stuffs 9% more incoming takedowns

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Wellington Turman
Wellington Turman
Brazil 18-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
26% | 74%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Islam Dulatov
Islam Dulatov
Russia 12-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Islam Dulatov
73.6 %
050100
90% CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.040 · High
Why this pick
  • Islam Dulatov lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Islam Dulatov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Islam Dulatov finishes by KO 78% more often
  • layoff Turman hasn't fought since Dec 2023 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Islam Dulatov out-volumes opponents at 5.1 sig/min vs Wellington Turman's 3.2
Method Breakdown
Turman Dulatov
KO/TKO 0.1
38.7
Submission 7.2
8.5
Decision 19.1
26.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
18
R2
9
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Turman Dulatov
Str/min 3.2
5.1
Sig Acc 51%
51%
Str Def 45%
48%
TD/min 0.10
0.00
Finish 44%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
40
TurmanDulatov
Combined 71 16–142
Takedowns
0.8
0.1
TurmanDulatov
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov finishes by KO 78% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov finishes 56% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns

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Ismael Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim
Brazil 20-6-0 Boxer Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
29% | 71%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Axel Sola
Axel Sola
France 11-1-1 Karate Southpaw 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Axel Sola
71.2 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Axel Sola hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute
  • Axel Sola has been finished 60% less often
  • the case against Ismael Bonfim eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ismael Bonfim out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Axel Sola's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Bonfim Sola
KO/TKO 8.9
22.2
Submission 2.5
24.6
Decision 17.4
24.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
21
R2
9
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bonfim Sola
Str/min 5.5
4.1
Sig Acc 55%
46%
Str Def 56%
61%
TD/min 0.07
0.15
Finish 80%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
35
BonfimSola
Combined 62 16–149
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
BonfimSola
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim finishes 30% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim is 9% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Sola

    Axel Sola hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Durability favours Sola

    Axel Sola has been finished 60% less often

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Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen
United States 11-4-0 Boxer Southpaw 1 win
30% | 70%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Valter Walker
Valter Walker
Brazil 15-1-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Valter Walker
69.7 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Valter Walker rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Valter Walker taps opponents 80% more often
  • Valter Walker finishes 47% more of their wins
  • the case against Thomas Petersen lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Valter Walker rides a 4-fight win streak (Thomas Petersen: 1)
Method Breakdown
Petersen Walker
KO/TKO 9.3
20.3
Submission 3.8
15.8
Decision 17.2
33.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
15
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petersen Walker
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 58%
52%
Str Def 56%
43%
TD/min 0.18
0.38
Finish 33%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
16
PetersenWalker
Combined 48 13–100
Takedowns
0.7
0.7
PetersenWalker
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Walker

    Valter Walker rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Submission rate favours Walker

    Valter Walker taps opponents 80% more often

  • 03 Finish rate favours Walker

    Valter Walker finishes 47% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking volume favours Petersen

    Thomas Petersen lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Petersen

    Thomas Petersen finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Walker

    Valter Walker hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

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Dustin Jacoby
Dustin Jacoby
United States 22-9-1 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
70% | 30%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Uran Satybaldiev
Uran Satybaldiev
Kyrgyzstan 8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dustin Jacoby
70.5 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Dustin Jacoby lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dustin Jacoby rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Dustin Jacoby finishes by KO 47% more often
  • the case against Uran Satybaldiev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dustin Jacoby out-volumes opponents at 5.4 sig/min vs Uran Satybaldiev's 1.8
Method Breakdown
Jacoby Satybaldiev
KO/TKO 25.4
7.8
Submission 4.9
10.8
Decision 40.2
10.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
15
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jacoby Satybaldiev
Str/min 5.4
1.8
Sig Acc 46%
21%
Str Def 58%
45%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 53%
41%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
27
JacobySatybaldiev
Combined 77 19–146
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
JacobySatybaldiev
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev taps opponents 41% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby is 25% more accurate on the feet

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Brendson Ribeiro
Brendson Ribeiro
Brazil 17-10-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
28% | 72%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
MT
Magomed Tuchalov
Russia 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Tuchalov
71.7 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.054 · High
Why this pick
  • Magomed Tuchalov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid
  • Brendson Ribeiro has a 7-fight UFC experience edge (7 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Ribeiro Tuchalov
KO/TKO 10.3
37.7
Submission 7.1
4.0
Decision 10.8
30.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
18
R2
9
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ribeiro Tuchalov
Str/min 2.6
0.0
Sig Acc 42%
0%
Str Def 51%
0%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 71%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
28
RibeiroTuchalov
Combined 53 14–118
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
RibeiroTuchalov
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Tuchalov

    Magomed Tuchalov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

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David Martinez
David Martinez
Mexico 14-1-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
19% | 81%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov
Russia 20-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Umar Nurmagomedov
81.3 %
050100
90% CI · 51 – 98 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov taps opponents 22% more often
  • the case against David Martinez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Umar Nurmagomedov has never been finished in 9 fights
Method Breakdown
Martinez Nurmagomedov
KO/TKO 6.9
8.0
Submission 1.9
7.4
Decision 9.9
65.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
9
R2
5
R3
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Martinez Nurmagomedov
Str/min 4.1
3.9
Sig Acc 40%
56%
Str Def 70%
61%
TD/min 0.05
0.27
Finish 29%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
43
MartinezNurmagomedov
Combined 71 21–136
Takedowns
0.0
1.6
MartinezNurmagomedov
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 76% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Martinez

    David Martinez rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov taps opponents 22% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov is 16% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 KO rate favours Martinez

    David Martinez finishes by KO 18% more often

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Daniel Rodriguez
Rodriguez
Main Event
68%
Model Leans Medic
2026-08-01
Uros Medic
Medic
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026
01
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
12
Bouts
Daniel Rodriguez
Daniel Rodriguez
United States 20-5-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight win streak
32% | 68%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
Uros Medic
Uros Medic
Serbia 13-3-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Uros Medic
68.1 %
050100
90% CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Uros Medic eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Uros Medic finishes 57% more of their wins
  • Uros Medic finishes by KO 51% more often
  • the case against Daniel Rodriguez lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Daniel Rodriguez out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Uros Medic's 5.1
Method Breakdown
Rodriguez Medic
KO/TKO 12.6
30.8
Submission 4.0
6.2
Decision 15.3
31.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
16
R2
8
R3
6
R4
2
R5
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rodriguez Medic
Str/min 7.2
5.1
Sig Acc 49%
57%
Str Def 57%
56%
TD/min 0.01
0.02
Finish 43%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
43
RodriguezMedic
Combined 92 19–264
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
RodriguezMedic
Combined 0.8 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 3.2 of 5 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Medic

    Uros Medic eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

    Daniel Rodriguez lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes 57% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes by KO 51% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Medic

    Uros Medic is 8% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Submission rate favours Rodriguez

    Daniel Rodriguez taps opponents 7% more often

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Ante Delija
Ante Delija
Croatia 26-8-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
33% | 67%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
Brazil 22-10-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Johnny Walker
66.8 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.048 · High
Why this pick
  • Johnny Walker eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Johnny Walker is 15% more accurate on the feet
  • Johnny Walker comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Ante Delija lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Johnny Walker has a 13-fight UFC experience edge (16 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Delija Walker
KO/TKO 16.2
43.2
Submission 2.6
3.5
Decision 14.4
20.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
21
R2
8
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Delija Walker
Str/min 4.3
3.7
Sig Acc 38%
53%
Str Def 53%
49%
TD/min 0.00
0.02
Finish 67%
69%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
37
DelijaWalker
Combined 66 16–139
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
DelijaWalker
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Walker

    Johnny Walker eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Delija

    Ante Delija lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Walker

    Johnny Walker is 15% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Delija

    Ante Delija stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Loss streak favours Walker

    Johnny Walker comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Submission rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker taps opponents 6% more often

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Marcin Tybura
Marcin Tybura
Poland 27-11-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
Aleksandar Rakic
Aleksandar Rakic
6-5-0 Orthodox 4-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Aleksandar Rakic
66.4 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Aleksandar Rakic eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Aleksandar Rakic lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Aleksandar Rakic stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Marcin Tybura comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Marcin Tybura has never been finished in 24 fights
Method Breakdown
Tybura Rakic
KO/TKO 10.0
26.3
Submission 3.9
6.7
Decision 19.7
33.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
18
R2
8
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tybura Rakic
Str/min 3.6
4.1
Sig Acc 48%
50%
Str Def 55%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.04
Finish 50%
45%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
50
TyburaRakic
Combined 98 20–159
Takedowns
0.5
0.0
TyburaRakic
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Loss streak favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura hits 0.04 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura finishes 5% more of their wins

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Dusko Todorovic
Dusko Todorovic
13-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
60% | 40%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
RV
Robert Valentin
1-3-0 Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dusko Todorovic
59.7 %
050100
90% CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Dusko Todorovic lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dusko Todorovic finishes by KO 23% more often
  • Dusko Todorovic hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Robert Valentin eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dusko Todorovic out-volumes opponents at 4.3 sig/min vs Robert Valentin's 1.2
Method Breakdown
Todorovic Valentin
KO/TKO 25.2
9.9
Submission 13.4
13.6
Decision 21.0
16.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
21
R2
6
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Todorovic Valentin
Str/min 4.3
1.2
Sig Acc 54%
53%
Str Def 51%
33%
TD/min 0.14
0.04
Finish 80%
70%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
22
TodorovicValentin
Combined 46 12–112
Takedowns
1.2
0.1
TodorovicValentin
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Valentin

    Robert Valentin eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic avoids 18% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Submission rate favours Valentin

    Robert Valentin taps opponents 14% more often

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Gilbert Urbina
Gilbert Urbina
United States 7-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
49% | 51%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
VC
Vlasto Cepo
Serbia 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Vlasto Cepo
50.6 %
050100
90% CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Vlasto Cepo comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Gilbert Urbina out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Vlasto Cepo's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Urbina Cepo
KO/TKO 12.9
14.8
Submission 16.1
17.6
Decision 20.4
18.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
18
R2
9
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Urbina Cepo
Str/min 5.2
0.0
Sig Acc 53%
0%
Str Def 45%
0%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 94%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
23
UrbinaCepo
Combined 47 13–117
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
UrbinaCepo
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Cepo

    Vlasto Cepo comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

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Jan Blachowicz
Jan Blachowicz
12-10-0 Orthodox 4-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
Bogdan Guskov
Bogdan Guskov
Uzbekistan 18-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bogdan Guskov
65.9 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Bogdan Guskov finishes 42% more of their wins
  • Bogdan Guskov lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Bogdan Guskov finishes by KO 23% more often
  • the case against Jan Blachowicz eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bogdan Guskov out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Jan Blachowicz's 3.6
Method Breakdown
Blachowicz Guskov
KO/TKO 11.9
34.4
Submission 8.2
4.8
Decision 14.0
26.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
23
R2
11
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blachowicz Guskov
Str/min 3.6
4.6
Sig Acc 50%
56%
Str Def 52%
45%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 41%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
38
BlachowiczGuskov
Combined 71 20–155
Takedowns
0.4
0.0
BlachowiczGuskov
Combined 1.0 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Blachowicz

    Jan Blachowicz eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov finishes 42% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking volume favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 05 Loss streak favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Blachowicz

    Jan Blachowicz hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

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JL
Jovan Leka
Serbia 1-0-0 nan
79% | 21%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
Max Gimenis
Max Gimenis
Brazil 6-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu nan 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jovan Leka
78.5 %
050100
90% CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.043 · High
Why this pick
  • Jovan Leka comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Leka Gimenis
KO/TKO 38.8
10.1
Submission 12.2
4.4
Decision 27.6
7.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
21
R2
11
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Leka Gimenis
Str/min 0.0
3.2
Sig Acc 0%
43%
Str Def 0%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
25
LekaGimenis
Combined 58 13–121
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
LekaGimenis
Combined 0.6 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Leka

    Jovan Leka comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Ludovit Klein
Ludovit Klein
Slovakia 24-5-1 Boxing Southpaw 1 win
70% | 30%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
Tofiq Musayev
Tofiq Musayev
Azerbaijan 23-6-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ludovit Klein
70.3 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Ludovit Klein lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ludovit Klein finishes by KO 17% more often
  • Ludovit Klein stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Tofiq Musayev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ludovit Klein has a 10-fight UFC experience edge (12 vs 2)
Method Breakdown
Klein Musayev
KO/TKO 13.5
10.2
Submission 16.8
2.6
Decision 40.1
16.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
14
R1
21
R2
8
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Klein Musayev
Str/min 3.8
1.8
Sig Acc 54%
46%
Str Def 53%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.15
Finish 25%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
31
KleinMusayev
Combined 64 18–116
Takedowns
0.2
0.8
KleinMusayev
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Musayev

    Tofiq Musayev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Musayev

    Tofiq Musayev finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein finishes by KO 17% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Sub defence favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein has been submitted 42% less often

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Josias Musasa
Josias Musasa
8-2-0 Kickboxer Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
40% | 60%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
Mark Vologdin
Mark Vologdin
Russia 12-4-2 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mark Vologdin
59.9 %
050100
90% CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Mark Vologdin lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Mark Vologdin has been submitted 50% less often
  • Mark Vologdin has been finished 50% less often
  • the case against Josias Musasa eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mark Vologdin out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Josias Musasa's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Musasa Vologdin
KO/TKO 9.0
10.3
Submission 8.6
11.1
Decision 22.5
38.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
10
R2
10
R3
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Musasa Vologdin
Str/min 2.5
4.6
Sig Acc 38%
32%
Str Def 42%
47%
TD/min 0.04
0.05
Finish 41%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
44
MusasaVologdin
Combined 85 19–138
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
MusasaVologdin
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa finishes 41% more of their wins

  • 04 Sub defence favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin has been submitted 50% less often

  • 05 Durability favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin has been finished 50% less often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa is 6% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dennis Buzukja
Dennis Buzukja
United States 12-6-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
12% | 88%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
Bogdan Grad
Bogdan Grad
Romania 15-4-0 Karate Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bogdan Grad
88.4 %
050100
90% CI · 58 – 98 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • Bogdan Grad eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bogdan Grad hits 0.33 more takedowns per minute
  • Bogdan Grad is 17% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Dennis Buzukja lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dennis Buzukja out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Bogdan Grad's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Buzukja Grad
KO/TKO 4.9
20.2
Submission 1.0
7.0
Decision 5.7
61.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
10
R2
3
R3
67
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Buzukja Grad
Str/min 4.7
2.8
Sig Acc 41%
59%
Str Def 53%
49%
TD/min 0.00
0.33
Finish 60%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
35
BuzukjaGrad
Combined 72 17–124
Takedowns
0.0
1.7
BuzukjaGrad
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 67% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Buzukja

    Dennis Buzukja lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad hits 0.33 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad is 17% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Control time favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad controls 38% more cage time

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Oban Elliott
Oban Elliott
England 12-4-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
68% | 32%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
MO
Michael Oliveira
1-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Oban Elliott
67.7 %
050100
90% CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • the case against Michael Oliveira comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Oban Elliott has a 5-fight UFC experience edge (5 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Elliott Oliveira
KO/TKO 25.7
7.9
Submission 11.0
8.6
Decision 31.1
15.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
14
R2
9
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elliott Oliveira
Str/min 3.6
0.0
Sig Acc 49%
0%
Str Def 61%
0%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 40%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
22
ElliottOliveira
Combined 56 19–121
Takedowns
0.4
0.0
ElliottOliveira
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Oliveira

    Michael Oliveira comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Hailey Cowan
Hailey Cowan
United States 7-5-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight loss streak
45% | 55%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
NM
Nina Milošević
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nina Milošević
55.1 %
050100
90% CI · 25 – 85 · σ 0.078 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Nina Milošević comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±8pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Cowan Milošević
KO/TKO 8.3
16.0
Submission 11.6
12.5
Decision 25.0
26.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
14
R2
7
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cowan Milošević
Str/min 2.7
0.0
Sig Acc 39%
0%
Str Def 38%
0%
TD/min 0.14
0.00
Finish 59%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
27
CowanMilošević
Combined 59 15–123
Takedowns
1.1
0.0
CowanMilošević
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Milošević

    Nina Milošević comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Mateusz Gamrot
Gamrot
Main Event
69%
Model Leans Salkilld
2026-08-08
Quillan Salkilld
Salkilld
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld
2026
08
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
Mateusz Gamrot
Mateusz Gamrot
Poland 26-4-0 Wrestling Southpaw 1 win
31% | 69%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 9 Aug · 8:00 AM AEST
Quillan Salkilld
Quillan Salkilld
Australia 12-1-0 MMA Orthodox 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Quillan Salkilld
68.8 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.083 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Quillan Salkilld rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Quillan Salkilld lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Quillan Salkilld eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Quillan Salkilld rides a 5-fight win streak (Mateusz Gamrot: 1)
Method Breakdown
Gamrot Salkilld
KO/TKO 6.7
20.1
Submission 4.7
27.7
Decision 19.9
21.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
18
R2
10
R3
6
R4
2
R5
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gamrot Salkilld
Str/min 3.2
4.7
Sig Acc 52%
60%
Str Def 60%
48%
TD/min 0.35
0.41
Finish 46%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
43
GamrotSalkilld
Combined 63 21–138
Takedowns
1.7
0.7
GamrotSalkilld
Combined 3.2 0.0–6.7
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld finishes 34% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld finishes by KO 37% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld is 8% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Islam Makhachev
Makhachev
Title · Main Event
72%
Model Leans Makhachev
2026-08-15
Ian Machado Garry
Garry
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026
15
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, USA
8
Bouts
1
Value Bouts
Islam Makhachev
C Islam Makhachev
Russia 28-1-0 Sambo Southpaw 16-fight win streak
SB 1.25
72% | 28%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 1:30 PM AEST
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry
Ireland 17-1-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 3.85
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Islam Makhachev
72.1 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Islam Makhachev rides a 14-fight longer win streak
  • Islam Makhachev eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Islam Makhachev finishes 39% more of their wins
  • the case against Ian Machado Garry lands 2.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Islam Makhachev rides a 16-fight win streak (Ian Machado Garry: 2)
Method Breakdown
Makhachev Garry
KO/TKO 4.8
20.7
Submission 31.0
2.1
Decision 36.2
5.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
18
R2
10
R3
6
R4
3
R5
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Makhachev Garry
Str/min 2.4
4.8
Sig Acc 58%
54%
Str Def 62%
53%
TD/min 0.21
0.06
Finish 67%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
41
MakhachevGarry
Combined 92 20–137
Takedowns
2.1
0.0
MakhachevGarry
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev rides a 14-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Garry

    Ian Machado Garry lands 2.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev taps opponents 44% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Mackenzie Dern
C Mackenzie Dern
United States 16-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.44
48% | 52%
Women's Strawweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 12:45 PM AEST
Gillian Robertson
Gillian Robertson
Canada 17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 5-fight win streak
SB 2.72
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Gillian Robertson
52.5 %
050100
90% CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Gillian Robertson eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gillian Robertson rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Gillian Robertson finishes 22% more of their wins
  • the case against Mackenzie Dern lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gillian Robertson rides a 5-fight win streak (Mackenzie Dern: 3)
Method Breakdown
Dern Robertson
KO/TKO 5.1
9.2
Submission 21.6
12.6
Decision 20.8
30.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
13
R2
7
R3
4
R4
2
R5
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dern Robertson
Str/min 3.5
2.7
Sig Acc 42%
48%
Str Def 52%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.18
Finish 38%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
37
DernRobertson
Combined 87 18–137
Takedowns
0.3
1.3
DernRobertson
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Dern

    Mackenzie Dern lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson finishes by KO 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Gillian Robertson wins
    Strong edge
    Model 52%
    Bookies 37%
    EV / $100 +$43
    Stake 6.2%
    2.72
    $62 returns $169
    +$107 profit
Edson Barboza
Edson Barboza
Brazil 24-14-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
36% | 64%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 11:00 AM AEST
Esteban Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics
Argentina 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Esteban Ribovics
64.0 %
050100
90% CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.090 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Esteban Ribovics lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Esteban Ribovics comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Edson Barboza eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Esteban Ribovics out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Edson Barboza's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Barboza Ribovics
KO/TKO 8.7
23.5
Submission 3.7
10.9
Decision 23.5
29.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
18
R2
8
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barboza Ribovics
Str/min 4.1
7.2
Sig Acc 45%
43%
Str Def 56%
54%
TD/min 0.03
0.02
Finish 50%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
54
59
BarbozaRibovics
Combined 123 22–189
Takedowns
0.0
0.4
BarbozaRibovics
Combined 0.4 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza finishes by KO 29% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza finishes 21% more of their wins

  • 05 Loss streak favours Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza stuffs 7% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
United States 14-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
80% | 20%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 11:00 AM AEST
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Canada 15-4-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Erin Blanchfield
79.8 %
050100
90% CI · 50 – 98 · σ 0.096 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often
  • the case against Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Jasmine Jasudavicius's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
KO/TKO 15.3
4.1
Submission 10.7
2.1
Decision 53.9
14.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
10
R2
6
R3
68
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
Str/min 5.2
3.4
Sig Acc 44%
44%
Str Def 59%
52%
TD/min 0.13
0.17
Finish 44%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
51
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 101 21–141
Takedowns
0.5
0.5
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 68% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield finishes 11% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius finishes by KO 8% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Chidi Njokuani
Chidi Njokuani
United States 25-11-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
35% | 65%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 9:00 AM AEST
Geoff Neal
Geoff Neal
United States 16-8-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Geoff Neal
64.8 %
050100
90% CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.047 · High
Why this pick
  • Geoff Neal stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns
  • Geoff Neal taps opponents 7% more often
  • Geoff Neal finishes 4% more of their wins
  • the case against Chidi Njokuani eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Geoff Neal KOs 50% of opponents — Chidi Njokuani has been KO'd in 20% of losses
Method Breakdown
Njokuani Neal
KO/TKO 18.1
27.4
Submission 1.2
4.2
Decision 15.9
33.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
17
R2
7
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Njokuani Neal
Str/min 5.7
5.0
Sig Acc 60%
51%
Str Def 57%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.04
Finish 60%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
50
54
NjokuaniNeal
Combined 90 19–177
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
NjokuaniNeal
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani is 9% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Neal

    Geoff Neal stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Submission rate favours Neal

    Geoff Neal taps opponents 7% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Neal

    Geoff Neal finishes 4% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Vicente Luque
Vicente Luque
United States 24-12-1 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
60% | 40%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 7:00 AM AEST
Tresean Gore
Tresean Gore
United States 7-4-0 Boxing Switch Stance 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Vicente Luque
60.2 %
050100
90% CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Vicente Luque eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Vicente Luque lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Vicente Luque finishes by KO 11% more often
  • the case against Tresean Gore stuffs 24% more incoming takedowns
  • Vicente Luque out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Tresean Gore's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Luque Gore
KO/TKO 31.5
8.6
Submission 9.3
11.9
Decision 19.4
19.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
20
R2
8
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Luque Gore
Str/min 4.8
3.4
Sig Acc 51%
50%
Str Def 52%
41%
TD/min 0.06
0.13
Finish 72%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
32
LuqueGore
Combined 71 14–149
Takedowns
0.2
0.6
LuqueGore
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Luque

    Vicente Luque eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Luque

    Vicente Luque lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Gore

    Tresean Gore stuffs 24% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Submission rate favours Gore

    Tresean Gore taps opponents 15% more often

  • 05 KO rate favours Luque

    Vicente Luque finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Gore

    Tresean Gore hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jeremiah Wells
Jeremiah Wells
United States 13-4-1 Striker Switch Stance 1 win
11% | 89%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 7:00 AM AEST
Myktybek Orolbai
Myktybek Orolbai
Kyrgyzstan 16-2-1 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Myktybek Orolbai
88.7 %
050100
90% CI · 59 – 98 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Myktybek Orolbai rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Myktybek Orolbai hits 0.38 more takedowns per minute
  • Myktybek Orolbai lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Jeremiah Wells eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Myktybek Orolbai rides a 3-fight win streak (Jeremiah Wells: 1)
Method Breakdown
Wells Orolbai
KO/TKO 2.6
26.8
Submission 1.8
24.6
Decision 6.8
37.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
18
R2
15
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Wells Orolbai
Str/min 2.3
2.8
Sig Acc 46%
50%
Str Def 48%
51%
TD/min 0.20
0.58
Finish 57%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
21
WellsOrolbai
Combined 54 17–105
Takedowns
0.6
1.4
WellsOrolbai
Combined 3.0 0.0–6.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Wells

    Jeremiah Wells eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai hits 0.38 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai taps opponents 19% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Wells

    Jeremiah Wells finishes by KO 12% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dustin Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus
United States 16-8-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
31% | 69%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 9:00 AM AEST
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Mansur Abdul-Malik
United States 9-1-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mansur Abdul-Malik
69.3 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes by KO 30% more often
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes 20% more of their wins
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik stuffs 40% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Dustin Stoltzfus eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik KOs 60% of opponents — Dustin Stoltzfus has been KO'd in 20% of losses
Method Breakdown
Stoltzfus Abdul-Malik
KO/TKO 6.8
27.7
Submission 3.7
15.8
Decision 20.2
25.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
24
R2
8
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Stoltzfus Abdul-Malik
Str/min 3.3
2.8
Sig Acc 44%
42%
Str Def 48%
44%
TD/min 0.13
0.14
Finish 60%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
26
StoltzfusAbdul-Malik
Combined 62 15–125
Takedowns
0.3
0.7
StoltzfusAbdul-Malik
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Stoltzfus

    Dustin Stoltzfus eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes by KO 30% more often

  • 03 Striking volume favours Stoltzfus

    Dustin Stoltzfus lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes 20% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik stuffs 40% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik taps opponents 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Anthony Hernandez
Hernandez
Main Event
66%
Model Leans Hernandez
2026-08-22
Gregory Rodrigues
Rodrigues
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026
22
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, USA
2
Bouts
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez
United States 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
66% | 34%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 23 Aug · 10:00 AM AEST
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues
Brazil 19-6-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Anthony Hernandez
66.2 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Anthony Hernandez eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Anthony Hernandez taps opponents 42% more often
  • Anthony Hernandez hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight win streak (Anthony Hernandez: 0)
Method Breakdown
Hernandez Rodrigues
KO/TKO 20.4
21.0
Submission 29.2
3.4
Decision 16.6
9.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
27
R2
13
R3
8
R4
4
R5
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hernandez Rodrigues
Str/min 4.5
5.5
Sig Acc 61%
51%
Str Def 51%
51%
TD/min 0.39
0.13
Finish 83%
69%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
29
HernandezRodrigues
Combined 80 18–179
Takedowns
1.8
0.0
HernandezRodrigues
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez taps opponents 42% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues finishes by KO 36% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 23 Aug · 7:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
Predictions soon
2026-09-05
UFC Fight Night: Paris
2026
05
SEP
predictions soon

UFC Fight Night: Paris

Accor Arena, Paris, France
2
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 2:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
3 rds ⏱ Sat 5 Sep · 11:00 PM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.