Updated 2026-11-05 20:19 AEST
49
Bouts
6
Events
59
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Johnny Walker
Walker
Main Event
61%
Model Leans Acosta
2026-11-08
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Acosta
UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker
2026
08
NOV
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
14
Bouts
10
Value Bouts
Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
Brazil 22-10-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.98
39% | 61%
Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 1:45 PM AEST
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Dominican Republic 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.40
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Waldo Cortes Acosta
61.3 %
Market · 68% on Acosta · Moirai −7 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta stops 70% of takedown attempts, Johnny Walker 50%
  • the case against Johnny Walker eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta has never been finished in 14 fights
Method Breakdown
Walker Acosta
KO/TKO 24.3
36.3
Submission 4.3
1.4
Decision 10.0
23.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
20
R2
14
R3
3
R4
6
R5
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Walker Acosta
Str/min 3.8
4.9
Sig Acc 54%
48%
Str Def 48%
55%
TD/min 0.02
0.02
Finish 71%
36%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
53
WalkerAcosta
Combined 96 22–175
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
WalkerAcosta
Combined 0.4 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.8 of 5 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Walker

    Johnny Walker eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker finishes 71% of fights, Waldo Cortes Acosta 36%

  • 04 Win streak favours Walker

    Johnny Walker rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 KO rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker wins by knockout in 65% of fights, Waldo Cortes Acosta in 36%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta stops 70% of takedown attempts, Johnny Walker 50%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 75 markets analysed
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 25%
    Break-even 16% fair 14%
    EV / $100 +$59
    Stake 2.8%
    6.25
    $28 of $1,000 returns $175
    +$147 profit
Tatiana Suarez
Tatiana Suarez
United States 13-1-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight win streak
SB 1.48
59% | 41%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 1:15 PM AEST
Virna Jandiroba
Virna Jandiroba
Brazil 23-4-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.67
Model Favourite
Tatiana Suarez
59.2 %
Market · 64% on Suarez · Moirai −5 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Tatiana Suarez eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tatiana Suarez finishes 60% of fights, Virna Jandiroba 31%
  • Tatiana Suarez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Virna Jandiroba has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Suarez Jandiroba
KO/TKO 8.6
6.5
Submission 6.6
12.7
Decision 44.0
21.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
11
R2
7
R3
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Suarez Jandiroba
Str/min 2.9
2.3
Sig Acc 60%
41%
Str Def 44%
56%
TD/min 0.30
0.21
Finish 60%
31%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
27
SuarezJandiroba
Combined 69 21–126
Takedowns
1.7
0.8
SuarezJandiroba
Combined 2.8 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez finishes 60% of fights, Virna Jandiroba 31%

  • 03 Win streak favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Striking volume favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez wins by submission in 50% of fights, Virna Jandiroba in 23%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez lands 60% of significant strikes thrown, Virna Jandiroba 41%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 53 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 53 markets analysed.
Davey Grant
Davey Grant
England 17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 3.55
25% | 75%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 12:45 PM AEST
Elijah Smith
Elijah Smith
United States 10-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.30
4 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Elijah Smith
75.5 %
Market · 73% on Smith · Moirai +2 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Elijah Smith eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Elijah Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Elijah Smith wins by submission in 31% of fights, Davey Grant in 6%
  • the case against Davey Grant lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Elijah Smith rides a 3-fight win streak (Davey Grant: 1)
Method Breakdown
Grant Smith
KO/TKO 9.9
16.6
Submission 3.8
29.2
Decision 10.8
29.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
19
R2
10
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Grant Smith
Str/min 5.6
3.7
Sig Acc 45%
53%
Str Def 55%
52%
TD/min 0.06
0.12
Finish 50%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
43
GrantSmith
Combined 78 16–146
Takedowns
0.1
0.7
GrantSmith
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Smith

    Elijah Smith eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Grant

    Davey Grant lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Smith

    Elijah Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Smith

    Elijah Smith wins by submission in 31% of fights, Davey Grant in 6%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Grant

    Davey Grant stops 65% of takedown attempts, Elijah Smith 46%

  • 06 Finish rate favours Smith

    Elijah Smith finishes 64% of fights, Davey Grant 50%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 4 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Elijah Smith wins by Submission in R1 or R2
    Strong edge
    Priced at 24%
    Break-even 14%
    EV / $100 +$67
    Stake 2.8%
    7.00
    $28 of $1,000 returns $196
    +$168 profit
  • Elijah Smith wins by SUB
    Strong edge
    Priced at 29%
    Break-even 18% fair 15%
    EV / $100 +$63
    Stake 3.4%
    5.70
    $34 of $1,000 returns $194
    +$160 profit
  • Fight ends by Submission
    Strong edge
    Priced at 33%
    Break-even 22% fair 20%
    EV / $100 +$50
    Stake 3.5%
    4.60
    $35 of $1,000 returns $161
    +$126 profit
  • Elijah Smith wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 58%
    Break-even 47%
    EV / $100 +$24
    Stake 5.2%
    2.15
    $52 of $1,000 returns $112
    +$60 profit
Wellington Turman
Wellington Turman
Brazil 18-8-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
SB 6.05
23% | 77%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:30 AM AEST
Seokhyeon Ko
Seokhyeon Ko
South Korea 13-2-0 Judo Southpaw 1 loss
SB 1.13
2 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Seokhyeon Ko
77.0 %
Market · 84% on Ko · Moirai −7 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Seokhyeon Ko eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Wellington Turman is on a losing run 2 fight(s) longer than Seokhyeon Ko
  • Seokhyeon Ko hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Wellington Turman finishes 44% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko 6%
  • layoff Turman hasn't fought since Dec 2023 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Seokhyeon Ko has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Turman Ko
KO/TKO 2.5
12.6
Submission 5.3
7.5
Decision 15.2
56.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
14
R1
9
R2
5
R3
72
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Turman Ko
Str/min 3.2
3.0
Sig Acc 51%
49%
Str Def 45%
65%
TD/min 0.10
0.21
Finish 44%
6%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
36
TurmanKo
Combined 60 18–117
Takedowns
0.5
1.9
TurmanKo
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 72% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Turman

    Wellington Turman finishes 44% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko 6%

  • 03 KO rate favours Turman

    Wellington Turman wins by knockout in 22% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko in 4%

  • 04 Loss streak favours Ko

    Wellington Turman is on a losing run 2 fight(s) longer than Seokhyeon Ko

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Wellington Turman 45%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 2 flagged · 55 markets analysed
  • Seokhyeon Ko wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 60%
    Break-even 38%
    EV / $100 +$58
    Stake 9.0%
    2.62
    $90 of $1,000 returns $236
    +$146 profit
  • Seokhyeon Ko wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 60%
    Break-even 40% fair 34%
    EV / $100 +$51
    Stake 8.5%
    2.50
    $85 of $1,000 returns $212
    +$128 profit
Billy Elekana
Billy Elekana
United States 10-2-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 3.62
53% | 47%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 12:15 PM AEST
LF
Lucas Fernando
Brazil 14-3-0 Striker 1 win
SB 1.29
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Billy Elekana
53.3 %
Market · 26% on Elekana · Moirai +27 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Billy Elekana is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse
  • Lucas Fernando has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Elekana Fernando
KO/TKO 20.8
22.1
Submission 16.4
6.3
Decision 16.1
18.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
20
R2
10
R3
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elekana Fernando
Str/min 2.7
5.5
Sig Acc 56%
57%
Str Def 46%
77%
TD/min 0.06
0.02
Finish 75%
91%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
24
ElekanaFernando
Combined 53 14–128
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
ElekanaFernando
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Elekana

    Billy Elekana is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Billy Elekana wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 35%
    Break-even 28% fair 26%
    EV / $100 +$26
    Stake 2.5%
    3.62
    $25 of $1,000 returns $90
    +$66 profit
Andre Petroski
Andre Petroski
United States 13-6-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak
SB 3.25
20% | 80%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:55 AM AEST
Mantas Kondratavicius
Mantas Kondratavicius
9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.35
3 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Mantas Kondratavicius
80.3 %
Market · 71% on Kondratavicius · Moirai +10 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Mantas Kondratavicius is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse
  • Mantas Kondratavicius has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Petroski Kondratavicius
KO/TKO 2.1
36.5
Submission 6.1
9.9
Decision 11.5
33.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
17
R2
11
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petroski Kondratavicius
Str/min 2.8
4.6
Sig Acc 49%
64%
Str Def 52%
56%
TD/min 0.21
0.13
Finish 54%
14%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
35
PetroskiKondratavicius
Combined 52 20–121
Takedowns
0.9
0.4
PetroskiKondratavicius
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Kondratavicius

    Mantas Kondratavicius is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Mantas Kondratavicius wins in R3+ or by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 42%
    Break-even 14%
    EV / $100 +$195
    Stake 8.1%
    7.00
    $81 of $1,000 returns $567
    +$486 profit
  • Mantas Kondratavicius wins by KO or Sub
    Strong edge
    Priced at 43%
    Break-even 15%
    EV / $100 +$190
    Stake 8.3%
    6.75
    $83 of $1,000 returns $560
    +$477 profit
  • Mantas Kondratavicius wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 31%
    Break-even 11% fair 10%
    EV / $100 +$174
    Stake 5.6%
    8.75
    $56 of $1,000 returns $490
    +$434 profit
Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen
United States 11-4-0 Boxing Southpaw 1 loss
SB 1.58
47% | 53%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 10:30 AM AEST
GL
Gabriel Lorenco
Brazil 1-0-0
SB 2.39
Model Favourite
Gabriel Lorenco
53.0 %
Market · 40% on Lorenco · Moirai +13 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse
  • Gabriel Lorenco has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Petersen Lorenco
KO/TKO 18.9
27.3
Submission 9.7
8.1
Decision 18.5
17.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
19
R2
10
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petersen Lorenco
Str/min 3.0
0.0
Sig Acc 58%
0%
Str Def 56%
0%
TD/min 0.17
0.00
Finish 43%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
19
PetersenLorenco
Combined 50 18–117
Takedowns
1.0
0.0
PetersenLorenco
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Lorenco

    Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 53 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 53 markets analysed.
Karine Silva
Karine Silva
Brazil 19-7-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.46
82% | 18%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 10:05 AM AEST
Gabriella Fernandes
Gabriella Fernandes
Brazil 11-4-0 Striker Southpaw 1 loss
SB 2.75
4 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Karine Silva
82.4 %
Market · 65% on Silva · Moirai +17 pts
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Karine Silva eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Karine Silva wins by submission in 38% of fights, Gabriella Fernandes in 17%
  • Karine Silva hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Gabriella Fernandes lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Karine Silva has never been finished in 8 fights
Method Breakdown
Silva Fernandes
KO/TKO 29.5
3.6
Submission 10.6
2.5
Decision 42.3
11.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
14
R2
7
R3
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Silva Fernandes
Str/min 2.3
3.5
Sig Acc 40%
47%
Str Def 54%
53%
TD/min 0.14
0.03
Finish 38%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
40
SilvaFernandes
Combined 76 19–130
Takedowns
0.9
0.0
SilvaFernandes
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Silva

    Karine Silva eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes stops 69% of takedown attempts, Karine Silva 29%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Silva

    Karine Silva wins by submission in 38% of fights, Gabriella Fernandes in 17%

  • 05 KO rate favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes wins by knockout in 17% of fights, Karine Silva in 0%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Silva

    Karine Silva hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 4 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
    Strong edge
    Priced at 22%
    Break-even 9%
    EV / $100 +$139
    Stake 3.5%
    11.00
    $35 of $1,000 returns $385
    +$350 profit
  • Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO
    Strong edge
    Priced at 26%
    Break-even 11% fair 10%
    EV / $100 +$126
    Stake 4.1%
    8.75
    $41 of $1,000 returns $359
    +$318 profit
  • Fight ends by KO/TKO
    Strong edge
    Priced at 32%
    Break-even 18% fair 16%
    EV / $100 +$76
    Stake 4.2%
    5.60
    $42 of $1,000 returns $235
    +$193 profit
  • Karine Silva wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 63%
    Break-even 46%
    EV / $100 +$37
    Stake 7.9%
    2.18
    $79 of $1,000 returns $172
    +$93 profit
Mitch Raposo
Mitch Raposo
United States 10-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
SB 2.86
73% | 27%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:15 AM AEST
MD
Marcos Degli
1-0-0
SB 1.43
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Mitch Raposo
73.2 %
Market · 33% on Raposo · Moirai +40 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Mitch Raposo is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse
  • Marcos Degli has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Raposo Degli
KO/TKO 21.9
5.0
Submission 21.1
5.6
Decision 30.1
16.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
16
R2
8
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Raposo Degli
Str/min 1.8
0.0
Sig Acc 42%
0%
Str Def 61%
0%
TD/min 0.12
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
25
RaposoDegli
Combined 58 18–124
Takedowns
1.4
0.0
RaposoDegli
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Raposo

    Mitch Raposo is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Mitch Raposo wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 33%
    Break-even 24%
    EV / $100 +$40
    Stake 3.1%
    4.20
    $31 of $1,000 returns $130
    +$99 profit
Jose Delano
Jose Delano
Brazil 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.87
11% | 89%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 9:40 AM AEST
MM
Murtazali Magomedov
Kyrgyzstan 1-0-0 Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.97
5 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Murtazali Magomedov
88.9 %
Market · 49% on Magomedov · Moirai +40 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Murtazali Magomedov is favoured at 89% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jose Delano has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Delano Magomedov
KO/TKO 3.3
6.8
Submission 0.4
23.1
Decision 7.3
59.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
10
R2
5
R3
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Delano Magomedov
Str/min 6.3
3.9
Sig Acc 58%
71%
Str Def 66%
77%
TD/min 0.03
0.78
Finish 11%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
41
DelanoMagomedov
Combined 78 16–146
Takedowns
0.1
1.7
DelanoMagomedov
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Magomedov

    Murtazali Magomedov is favoured at 89% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 5 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Murtazali Magomedov wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 44%
    Break-even 19% fair 16%
    EV / $100 +$135
    Stake 7.8%
    5.30
    $78 of $1,000 returns $413
    +$335 profit
  • Murtazali Magomedov wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 44%
    Break-even 20%
    EV / $100 +$121
    Stake 7.6%
    5.00
    $76 of $1,000 returns $380
    +$304 profit
  • Murtazali Magomedov wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 62%
    Break-even 39%
    EV / $100 +$57
    Stake 9.2%
    2.55
    $92 of $1,000 returns $235
    +$143 profit
  • Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 49%
    Break-even 32%
    EV / $100 +$53
    Stake 6.3%
    3.10
    $63 of $1,000 returns $195
    +$132 profit
  • Murtazali Magomedov wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 67%
    Break-even 51% fair 49%
    EV / $100 +$31
    Stake 8.1%
    1.97
    $81 of $1,000 returns $160
    +$79 profit
Keiichiro Nakamura
Keiichiro Nakamura
Japan 8-1-0 Striker Southpaw 1 win
SB 1.26
62% | 38%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 10:50 AM AEST
Ollie Schmid
Ollie Schmid
United States 4-3-0 Striker 1 loss
SB 3.90
3 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Keiichiro Nakamura
62.0 %
Market · 76% on Nakamura · Moirai −14 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Keiichiro Nakamura is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
  • Keiichiro Nakamura has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Nakamura Schmid
KO/TKO 25.1
9.5
Submission 6.6
9.2
Decision 30.3
19.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
15
R2
8
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nakamura Schmid
Str/min 3.4
3.4
Sig Acc 39%
33%
Str Def 61%
45%
TD/min 0.03
0.03
Finish 87%
87%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
32
NakamuraSchmid
Combined 77 15–142
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
NakamuraSchmid
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Nakamura

    Keiichiro Nakamura is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 55 markets analysed
  • Keiichiro Nakamura wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 35%
    Break-even 16% fair 14%
    EV / $100 +$118
    Stake 5.6%
    6.25
    $56 of $1,000 returns $350
    +$294 profit
  • Keiichiro Nakamura wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 35%
    Break-even 17%
    EV / $100 +$109
    Stake 5.5%
    6.00
    $54 of $1,000 returns $324
    +$270 profit
  • Keiichiro Nakamura wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 42%
    Break-even 22%
    EV / $100 +$95
    Stake 6.6%
    4.60
    $66 of $1,000 returns $304
    +$238 profit
Lucas Brennan
Lucas Brennan
United States 11-3-0 Grappler Southpaw 1 loss
31% | 69%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Austin Bashi
Austin Bashi
United States 14-1-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Austin Bashi
69.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Austin Bashi is favoured at 69% — fight-history features sparse
  • Lucas Brennan has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Brennan Bashi
KO/TKO 2.9
9.1
Submission 10.9
25.2
Decision 17.3
34.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
12
R2
9
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brennan Bashi
Str/min 0.6
1.9
Sig Acc 25%
40%
Str Def 52%
54%
TD/min 0.00
0.20
Finish 0%
35%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
25
BrennanBashi
Combined 51 17–117
Takedowns
0.3
2.0
BrennanBashi
Combined 2.6 0.0–6.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi is favoured at 69% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Priscila Cachoeira
Priscila Cachoeira
Brazil 13-8-0 Brawler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
SB 4.75
19% | 81%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:45 AM AEST
NM
Nina Milosevic
9-1-0 Freestyle 1 win
SB 1.19
3 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Nina Milosevic
80.6 %
Market · 80% on Milosevic · Moirai +1 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nina Milosevic is favoured at 81% — fight-history features sparse
  • Nina Milosevic has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Cachoeira Milosevic
KO/TKO 7.3
38.8
Submission 0.6
9.4
Decision 11.5
32.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
18
R2
5
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cachoeira Milosevic
Str/min 4.3
5.2
Sig Acc 44%
52%
Str Def 46%
73%
TD/min 0.02
0.02
Finish 71%
85%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
50
CachoeiraMilosevic
Combined 70 17–168
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
CachoeiraMilosevic
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Milosevic

    Nina Milosevic is favoured at 81% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 55 markets analysed
  • Nina Milosevic wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 32%
    Break-even 17% fair 15%
    EV / $100 +$87
    Stake 4.5%
    5.80
    $45 of $1,000 returns $261
    +$216 profit
  • Nina Milosevic wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 32%
    Break-even 18%
    EV / $100 +$77
    Stake 4.3%
    5.50
    $43 of $1,000 returns $236
    +$194 profit
  • Nina Milosevic wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 71%
    Break-even 52%
    EV / $100 +$37
    Stake 9.9%
    1.94
    $99 of $1,000 returns $192
    +$93 profit
JP
Jonny Parsons
United States 9-3-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
61% | 39%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Jose Henrique
Jose Henrique
Brazil 0-1-0
Model Favourite
Jonny Parsons
60.8 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jonny Parsons is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jonny Parsons has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Parsons Henrique
KO/TKO 25.2
11.4
Submission 12.3
9.0
Decision 23.3
18.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
39
R1
13
R2
5
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Parsons Henrique
Str/min 5.6
0.0
Sig Acc 49%
0%
Str Def 67%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 88%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
19
ParsonsHenrique
Combined 56 16–139
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
ParsonsHenrique
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Parsons

    Jonny Parsons is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Josh Hokit
Hokit
Title · Main Event
64%
Model Leans Gane
2026-11-15
Ciryl Gane
Gane
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
2026
15
NOV
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Madison Square Garden, New York, USA
14
Bouts
2
Value Bouts
Josh Hokit
Josh Hokit
United States 9-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
SB 3.00
36% | 64%
Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 2:30 PM AEST
Ciryl Gane
C Ciryl Gane
France 13-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.36
Model Favourite
Ciryl Gane
64.1 %
Market · 69% on Gane · Moirai −5 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Ciryl Gane eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Josh Hokit lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Josh Hokit out-volumes opponents at 10.3 sig/min vs Ciryl Gane's 5.4
Method Breakdown
Hokit Gane
KO/TKO 18.7
27.6
Submission 9.5
8.4
Decision 7.7
28.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
17
R2
11
R3
8
R4
3
R5
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hokit Gane
Str/min 10.3
5.4
Sig Acc 64%
62%
Str Def 48%
61%
TD/min 0.10
0.04
Finish 75%
57%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
56
HokitGane
Combined 99 20–220
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
HokitGane
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.8 of 5 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gane

    Ciryl Gane eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Ciryl Gane in 36%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit stops 78% of takedown attempts, Ciryl Gane 47%

  • 06 Finish rate favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit finishes 75% of fights, Ciryl Gane 57%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 76 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 76 markets analysed.
Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes
Brazil 23-5-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 2.44
28% | 72%
Women's Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 1:45 PM AEST
Kayla Harrison
C Kayla Harrison
United States 19-1-0 Judo Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.51
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Kayla Harrison
72.5 %
Market · 62% on Harrison · Moirai +11 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Kayla Harrison eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kayla Harrison wins by submission in 67% of fights, Amanda Nunes in 17%
  • Kayla Harrison rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Amanda Nunes wins by knockout in 44% of fights, Kayla Harrison in 0%
  • Amanda Nunes has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (18 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Nunes Harrison
KO/TKO 12.3
11.5
Submission 3.9
25.7
Decision 11.3
35.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
12
R2
11
R3
7
R4
5
R5
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nunes Harrison
Str/min 4.5
4.3
Sig Acc 52%
62%
Str Def 59%
66%
TD/min 0.19
0.19
Finish 67%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
41
NunesHarrison
Combined 96 20–204
Takedowns
0.3
1.4
NunesHarrison
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Submission rate favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison wins by submission in 67% of fights, Amanda Nunes in 17%

  • 03 KO rate favours Nunes

    Amanda Nunes wins by knockout in 44% of fights, Kayla Harrison in 0%

  • 04 Win streak favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison stops 100% of takedown attempts, Amanda Nunes 81%

  • 06 Striking volume favours Nunes

    Amanda Nunes lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 75 markets analysed
  • Kayla Harrison wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 42%
    Break-even 34%
    EV / $100 +$25
    Stake 3.2%
    2.95
    $32 of $1,000 returns $94
    +$62 profit
Caio Borralho
Caio Borralho
Brazil 18-2-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
SB 1.61
48% | 52%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 1:15 PM AEST
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 2.25
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
52.2 %
Market · 42% on Belgaroui · Moirai +10 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui lands 5.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes 100% of fights, Caio Borralho 22%
  • the case against Caio Borralho stops 74% of takedown attempts, Yousri Belgaroui 56%
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.3 sig/min vs Caio Borralho's 3.3
Method Breakdown
Borralho Belgaroui
KO/TKO 14.5
26.7
Submission 12.3
1.4
Decision 21.0
24.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
9
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Borralho Belgaroui
Str/min 3.3
8.3
Sig Acc 55%
65%
Str Def 60%
70%
TD/min 0.07
0.03
Finish 22%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
45
BorralhoBelgaroui
Combined 96 21–147
Takedowns
1.0
0.0
BorralhoBelgaroui
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 5.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 100% of fights, Caio Borralho 22%

  • 04 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui wins by knockout in 100% of fights, Caio Borralho in 11%

  • 05 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Borralho

    Caio Borralho stops 74% of takedown attempts, Yousri Belgaroui 56%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland
United States 29-15-0 Kung Fu Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.33
57% | 43%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:45 PM AEST
Uros Medic
Uros Medic
Serbia 13-3-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
SB 1.56
Model Favourite
Kevin Holland
56.6 %
Market · 40% on Holland · Moirai +16 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Kevin Holland eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kevin Holland wins by submission in 21% of fights, Uros Medic in 0%
  • the case against Uros Medic rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Uros Medic rides a 4-fight win streak (Kevin Holland: 1)
Method Breakdown
Holland Medic
KO/TKO 23.6
25.6
Submission 19.5
2.8
Decision 13.5
15.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
40
R1
23
R2
8
R3
29
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holland Medic
Str/min 4.2
5.3
Sig Acc 50%
58%
Str Def 50%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.02
Finish 55%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
32
HollandMedic
Combined 62 17–137
Takedowns
0.2
0.0
HollandMedic
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 29% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Medic

    Uros Medic rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Medic

    Uros Medic lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic wins by knockout in 82% of fights, Kevin Holland in 24%

  • 04 Finish rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes 100% of fights, Kevin Holland 55%

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland

    Kevin Holland eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Holland

    Kevin Holland wins by submission in 21% of fights, Uros Medic in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Luis Gurule
Luis Gurule
United States 10-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 6.00
25% | 75%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:15 PM AEST
BH
Bilal Hasan
United States 1-0-0 1 win
SB 1.11
Model Favourite
Bilal Hasan
75.3 %
Market · 84% on Hasan · Moirai −9 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Bilal Hasan is favoured at 75% — fight-history features sparse
  • Bilal Hasan has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Gurule Hasan
KO/TKO 11.3
33.9
Submission 3.1
13.4
Decision 10.4
28.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
20
R2
7
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gurule Hasan
Str/min 5.0
6.2
Sig Acc 41%
42%
Str Def 57%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.13
Finish 40%
87%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
41
GuruleHasan
Combined 83 18–156
Takedowns
0.4
0.2
GuruleHasan
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan is favoured at 75% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Stephen Thompson
Stephen Thompson
United States 17-9-1 Karate Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
SB 1.76
27% | 73%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Charles Radtke
Charles Radtke
United States 12-5-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 2.05
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Charles Radtke
72.8 %
Market · 46% on Radtke · Moirai +27 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Charles Radtke eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Radtke rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Charles Radtke finishes 71% of fights, Stephen Thompson 41%
  • the case against Stephen Thompson lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Stephen Thompson out-volumes opponents at 4.0 sig/min vs Charles Radtke's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Thompson Radtke
KO/TKO 10.3
18.0
Submission 2.1
17.9
Decision 14.8
36.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
15
R2
7
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Thompson Radtke
Str/min 4.0
2.5
Sig Acc 46%
54%
Str Def 55%
55%
TD/min 0.02
0.13
Finish 41%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
28
ThompsonRadtke
Combined 72 16–135
Takedowns
0.0
1.4
ThompsonRadtke
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Thompson

    Stephen Thompson lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke finishes 71% of fights, Stephen Thompson 41%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke stops 100% of takedown attempts, Stephen Thompson 63%

  • 06 Loss streak favours Radtke

    Stephen Thompson is on a losing run 3 fight(s) longer than Charles Radtke

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Charles Radtke wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 56%
    Break-even 49% fair 46%
    EV / $100 +$15
    Stake 3.6%
    2.05
    $36 of $1,000 returns $74
    +$38 profit
Drew Dober
Drew Dober
United States 29-15-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight win streak
30% | 70%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan
Scotland 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Chris Duncan
70.3 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Chris Duncan wins by submission in 38% of fights, Drew Dober in 4%
  • Chris Duncan hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
  • Chris Duncan eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Drew Dober rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Drew Dober has never been finished in 27 fights
Method Breakdown
Dober Duncan
KO/TKO 12.8
21.1
Submission 5.2
21.6
Decision 11.7
27.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
20
R2
7
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dober Duncan
Str/min 4.5
4.6
Sig Acc 41%
46%
Str Def 53%
52%
TD/min 0.04
0.19
Finish 70%
62%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
45
DoberDuncan
Combined 70 18–168
Takedowns
0.0
1.2
DoberDuncan
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Dober

    Drew Dober rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Dober

    Drew Dober wins by knockout in 52% of fights, Chris Duncan in 0%

  • 03 Submission rate favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan wins by submission in 38% of fights, Drew Dober in 4%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Dober

    Drew Dober finishes 70% of fights, Chris Duncan 62%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jim Miller
Jim Miller
United States 39-19-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 1 win
44% | 56%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney
United States 18-8-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
Model Favourite
Terrance McKinney
56.0 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Terrance McKinney lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney finishes 100% of fights, Jim Miller 53%
  • Terrance McKinney wins by knockout in 64% of fights, Jim Miller in 17%
  • the case against Jim Miller eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney out-volumes opponents at 7.8 sig/min vs Jim Miller's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Miller McKinney
KO/TKO 2.1
21.7
Submission 32.7
10.7
Decision 9.1
23.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
23
R2
7
R3
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Miller McKinney
Str/min 2.9
7.8
Sig Acc 42%
56%
Str Def 57%
42%
TD/min 0.10
0.20
Finish 53%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
30
MillerMcKinney
Combined 41 10–149
Takedowns
0.2
1.0
MillerMcKinney
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Miller

    Jim Miller eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes 100% of fights, Jim Miller 53%

  • 04 KO rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney wins by knockout in 64% of fights, Jim Miller in 17%

  • 05 Win streak favours Miller

    Jim Miller rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney stops 73% of takedown attempts, Jim Miller 48%

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Cesar Almeida
Cesar Almeida
Brazil 7-2-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
20% | 80%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson
United States 8-0-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Donte Johnson
80.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Donte Johnson rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Donte Johnson eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Donte Johnson wins by submission in 33% of fights, Cesar Almeida in 0%
  • the case against Cesar Almeida lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Donte Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak (Cesar Almeida: 0)
Method Breakdown
Almeida Johnson
KO/TKO 10.3
43.6
Submission 0.7
8.3
Decision 8.5
28.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
20
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Almeida Johnson
Str/min 3.5
2.9
Sig Acc 60%
43%
Str Def 43%
63%
TD/min 0.02
0.13
Finish 50%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
30
AlmeidaJohnson
Combined 55 18–129
Takedowns
0.1
0.5
AlmeidaJohnson
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Johnson

    Donte Johnson rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Johnson

    Donte Johnson eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Johnson

    Donte Johnson wins by submission in 33% of fights, Cesar Almeida in 0%

  • 04 Striking volume favours Almeida

    Cesar Almeida lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Johnson

    Donte Johnson stops 77% of takedown attempts, Cesar Almeida 48%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Almeida

    Cesar Almeida lands 60% of significant strikes thrown, Donte Johnson 43%

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Macy Chiasson
Macy Chiasson
United States 11-6-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Bia Mesquita
Bia Mesquita
Brazil 6-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Bia Mesquita
66.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Bia Mesquita eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Bia Mesquita wins by submission in 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson in 14%
  • the case against Macy Chiasson stops 62% of takedown attempts, Bia Mesquita 0%
  • Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight win streak (Macy Chiasson: 0)
Method Breakdown
Chiasson Mesquita
KO/TKO 10.8
0.1
Submission 6.3
33.6
Decision 16.9
32.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
16
R2
8
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chiasson Mesquita
Str/min 3.2
4.5
Sig Acc 46%
57%
Str Def 45%
71%
TD/min 0.12
0.24
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
30
ChiassonMesquita
Combined 60 15–113
Takedowns
0.5
1.7
ChiassonMesquita
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Submission rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita wins by submission in 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson in 14%

  • 04 Striking volume favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Chiasson

    Macy Chiasson stops 62% of takedown attempts, Bia Mesquita 0%

  • 06 Finish rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita finishes 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson 50%

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Adrian Yanez
Adrian Yanez
United States 17-6-1 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
32% | 68%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Juan Diaz
Juan Diaz
Peru 15-1-1 MMA 1 win
Model Favourite
Juan Diaz
68.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Juan Diaz is favoured at 68% — fight-history features sparse
  • Juan Diaz has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Yanez Diaz
KO/TKO 13.3
27.9
Submission 1.6
22.1
Decision 17.2
17.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
20
R2
10
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Yanez Diaz
Str/min 5.9
1.4
Sig Acc 42%
52%
Str Def 57%
55%
TD/min 0.00
0.55
Finish 73%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
32
YanezDiaz
Combined 63 13–126
Takedowns
0.0
1.2
YanezDiaz
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Diaz

    Juan Diaz is favoured at 68% — fight-history features sparse

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Nazim Sadykhov
Nazim Sadykhov
Russia 11-2-1 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
64% | 36%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
JN
Jefferson Nascimento
Brazil 13-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Nazim Sadykhov
63.6 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nazim Sadykhov is favoured at 64% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jefferson Nascimento has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Sadykhov Nascimento
KO/TKO 25.9
14.2
Submission 7.4
4.6
Decision 30.3
17.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sadykhov Nascimento
Str/min 4.7
2.7
Sig Acc 47%
47%
Str Def 47%
57%
TD/min 0.09
0.03
Finish 86%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
31
SadykhovNascimento
Combined 64 13–128
Takedowns
0.2
0.0
SadykhovNascimento
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov is favoured at 64% — fight-history features sparse

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Jared Gordon
Jared Gordon
United States 21-9-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
29% | 71%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Melquizael Costa
Melquizael Costa
Brazil 26-7-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
Model Favourite
Melquizael Costa
71.2 %
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Melquizael Costa eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Melquizael Costa wins by submission in 20% of fights, Jared Gordon in 0%
  • Melquizael Costa finishes 60% of fights, Jared Gordon 50%
  • the case against Jared Gordon lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Jared Gordon out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Melquizael Costa's 4.3
Method Breakdown
Gordon Costa
KO/TKO 8.7
22.9
Submission 3.9
23.4
Decision 16.2
24.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
19
R2
10
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gordon Costa
Str/min 5.6
4.3
Sig Acc 54%
47%
Str Def 55%
50%
TD/min 0.13
0.10
Finish 50%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
43
GordonCosta
Combined 86 18–163
Takedowns
0.5
0.3
GordonCosta
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Costa

    Melquizael Costa eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Gordon

    Jared Gordon lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Costa

    Melquizael Costa wins by submission in 20% of fights, Jared Gordon in 0%

  • 04 Finish rate favours Costa

    Melquizael Costa finishes 60% of fights, Jared Gordon 50%

  • 05 KO rate favours Gordon

    Jared Gordon wins by knockout in 39% of fights, Melquizael Costa in 30%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Gordon

    Jared Gordon stops 60% of takedown attempts, Melquizael Costa 51%

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Evan Elder
Evan Elder
United States 10-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 3-fight win streak
49% | 51%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
SS
Samuel Sanches
1-0-0 Orthodox
Model Favourite
Samuel Sanches
50.8 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • layoff Elder hasn't fought since Apr 2025 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Samuel Sanches has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Elder Sanches
KO/TKO 13.2
20.6
Submission 10.3
7.8
Decision 25.7
22.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elder Sanches
Str/min 5.7
0.0
Sig Acc 51%
0%
Str Def 57%
0%
TD/min 0.03
0.00
Finish 40%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
33
ElderSanches
Combined 77 19–163
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
ElderSanches
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
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Jiri Prochazka
Prochazka
Main Event
80%
Model Leans Stirling
2026-11-22
Navajo Stirling
Stirling
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
2026
22
NOV
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
9
Bouts
Jiri Prochazka
Jiri Prochazka
32-6-1 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
20% | 80%
Light Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling
New Zealand 9-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 6-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Navajo Stirling
80.1 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Navajo Stirling eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight longer win streak
  • Navajo Stirling lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Jiri Prochazka finishes 100% of fights, Navajo Stirling 50%
  • Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight win streak (Jiri Prochazka: 0)
Method Breakdown
Prochazka Stirling
KO/TKO 13.3
49.8
Submission 6.4
1.5
Decision 0.1
28.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
19
R2
12
R3
6
R4
5
R5
29
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Prochazka Stirling
Str/min 5.6
6.4
Sig Acc 56%
54%
Str Def 45%
59%
TD/min 0.03
0.06
Finish 100%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
68
ProchazkaStirling
Combined 94 19–245
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
ProchazkaStirling
Combined 1.1 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 29% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Prochazka

    Jiri Prochazka finishes 100% of fights, Navajo Stirling 50%

  • 04 Striking volume favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Prochazka

    Jiri Prochazka wins by knockout in 89% of fights, Navajo Stirling in 50%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Prochazka

    Jiri Prochazka wins by submission in 11% of fights, Navajo Stirling in 0%

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Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling
United States 25-5-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 2-fight win streak
38% | 62%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Kevin Vallejos
Kevin Vallejos
Argentina 17-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Kevin Vallejos
61.6 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Kevin Vallejos lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kevin Vallejos rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Kevin Vallejos wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Aljamain Sterling in 18%
  • the case against Aljamain Sterling eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kevin Vallejos rides a 4-fight win streak (Aljamain Sterling: 2)
Method Breakdown
Sterling Vallejos
KO/TKO 3.2
32.7
Submission 12.1
1.6
Decision 23.1
27.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
16
R2
8
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sterling Vallejos
Str/min 4.2
5.7
Sig Acc 54%
47%
Str Def 61%
59%
TD/min 0.18
0.07
Finish 36%
75%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
44
SterlingVallejos
Combined 89 22–162
Takedowns
1.5
0.1
SterlingVallejos
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sterling

    Aljamain Sterling eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Aljamain Sterling in 18%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos finishes 75% of fights, Aljamain Sterling 36%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos stops 90% of takedown attempts, Aljamain Sterling 52%

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Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega
United States 16-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
63% | 37%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Dan Hooker
Dan Hooker
New Zealand 24-14-0 MMA Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Brian Ortega
63.1 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Brian Ortega wins by submission in 29% of fights, Dan Hooker in 8%
  • the case against Dan Hooker eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dan Hooker has never been finished in 25 fights
Method Breakdown
Ortega Hooker
KO/TKO 12.7
15.9
Submission 17.4
4.9
Decision 33.1
16.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
6
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ortega Hooker
Str/min 3.8
4.8
Sig Acc 37%
49%
Str Def 49%
49%
TD/min 0.06
0.04
Finish 64%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
47
OrtegaHooker
Combined 81 18–177
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
OrtegaHooker
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker stops 77% of takedown attempts, Brian Ortega 55%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Ortega

    Brian Ortega wins by submission in 29% of fights, Dan Hooker in 8%

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker lands 49% of significant strikes thrown, Brian Ortega 37%

  • 06 KO rate favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker wins by knockout in 48% of fights, Brian Ortega in 36%

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Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier
United States 18-9-0 Striker Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
13% | 87%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Ikram Aliskerov
Ikram Aliskerov
Russia 17-2-0 Sambo Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Ikram Aliskerov
86.9 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Ikram Aliskerov eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ikram Aliskerov lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight win streak (Jared Cannonier: 0)
Method Breakdown
Cannonier Aliskerov
KO/TKO 6.4
40.2
Submission 0.8
10.5
Decision 5.9
36.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
9
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cannonier Aliskerov
Str/min 4.2
5.7
Sig Acc 49%
61%
Str Def 56%
46%
TD/min 0.05
0.24
Finish 48%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
52
CannonierAliskerov
Combined 83 20–172
Takedowns
0.0
1.0
CannonierAliskerov
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov stops 100% of takedown attempts, Jared Cannonier 65%

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov hits 0.19 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov finishes 67% of fights, Jared Cannonier 48%

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Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev
Russia 14-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
29% | 71%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Tallison Teixeira
Tallison Teixeira
Brazil 9-1-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Tallison Teixeira
71.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Tallison Teixeira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tallison Teixeira lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tallison Teixeira lands 67% of significant strikes thrown, Shamil Gaziev 45%
  • the case against Shamil Gaziev rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Shamil Gaziev KOs 86% of opponents — Tallison Teixeira has been KO'd in 50% of losses
Method Breakdown
Gaziev Teixeira
KO/TKO 18.9
41.6
Submission 2.1
5.9
Decision 7.8
23.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
21
R2
11
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gaziev Teixeira
Str/min 3.0
3.7
Sig Acc 45%
67%
Str Def 45%
32%
TD/min 0.07
0.18
Finish 86%
75%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
37
GazievTeixeira
Combined 55 14–117
Takedowns
0.0
0.5
GazievTeixeira
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira lands 67% of significant strikes thrown, Shamil Gaziev 45%

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev finishes 86% of fights, Tallison Teixeira 75%

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Jake Matthews
Jake Matthews
Australia 22-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
61% | 39%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 1:00 AM AEST
TA
Tahir Abdullayev
Azerbaijan 20-3-0 Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Jake Matthews
61.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jake Matthews is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse
  • Tahir Abdullayev has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Matthews Abdullayev
KO/TKO 13.2
10.4
Submission 20.6
7.3
Decision 27.2
21.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
16
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Matthews Abdullayev
Str/min 3.4
2.7
Sig Acc 44%
43%
Str Def 61%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.13
Finish 54%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
20
MatthewsAbdullayev
Combined 57 16–114
Takedowns
0.4
0.4
MatthewsAbdullayev
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Matthews

    Jake Matthews is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse

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Aleksandre Topuria
Aleksandre Topuria
Germany 7-1-0 Boxing Orthodox 2-fight win streak
32% | 68%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 1:00 AM AEST
Santiago Luna
Santiago Luna
United States 8-0-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Santiago Luna
67.6 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Santiago Luna lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Santiago Luna finishes 64% of fights, Aleksandre Topuria 0%
  • Santiago Luna wins by knockout in 32% of fights, Aleksandre Topuria in 0%
  • the case against Aleksandre Topuria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Santiago Luna out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Aleksandre Topuria's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Topuria Luna
KO/TKO 8.7
20.0
Submission 6.8
11.9
Decision 16.9
35.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
8
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Topuria Luna
Str/min 2.9
4.6
Sig Acc 55%
52%
Str Def 69%
68%
TD/min 0.10
0.15
Finish 0%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
40
TopuriaLuna
Combined 70 20–125
Takedowns
1.1
0.1
TopuriaLuna
Combined 2.4 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Luna

    Santiago Luna lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Luna

    Santiago Luna finishes 64% of fights, Aleksandre Topuria 0%

  • 03 Win streak favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria stops 100% of takedown attempts, Santiago Luna 57%

  • 05 KO rate favours Luna

    Santiago Luna wins by knockout in 32% of fights, Aleksandre Topuria in 0%

  • 06 Strikes absorbed favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

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Kyoji Horiguchi
Kyoji Horiguchi
Japan 36-5-0 Orthodox 1 loss
52% | 48%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 1:00 AM AEST
Asu Almabayev
Asu Almabayev
Kazakhstan 23-3-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Kyoji Horiguchi
52.2 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Kyoji Horiguchi lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kyoji Horiguchi stops 61% of takedown attempts, Asu Almabayev 44%
  • the case against Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight win streak (Kyoji Horiguchi: 0)
Method Breakdown
Horiguchi Almabayev
KO/TKO 16.4
3.8
Submission 4.8
15.2
Decision 31.0
28.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
7
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Horiguchi Almabayev
Str/min 3.6
2.3
Sig Acc 48%
51%
Str Def 64%
54%
TD/min 0.11
0.32
Finish 45%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
33
HoriguchiAlmabayev
Combined 59 20–115
Takedowns
0.6
2.0
HoriguchiAlmabayev
Combined 2.9 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev wins by submission in 38% of fights, Kyoji Horiguchi in 9%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi stops 61% of takedown attempts, Asu Almabayev 44%

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Amir Albazi
Amir Albazi
17-3-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
61% | 39%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 1:00 AM AEST
Alessandro Costa
Alessandro Costa
Brazil 15-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Amir Albazi
60.7 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • the case against Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight win streak (Amir Albazi: 0)
Method Breakdown
Albazi Costa
KO/TKO 10.9
17.6
Submission 24.2
3.9
Decision 25.6
17.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
18
R2
7
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Albazi Costa
Str/min 2.5
3.9
Sig Acc 34%
49%
Str Def 59%
54%
TD/min 0.08
0.06
Finish 43%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
36
AlbaziCosta
Combined 69 18–141
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
AlbaziCosta
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Amir Albazi in 14%

  • 04 Finish rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa finishes 88% of fights, Amir Albazi 43%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa stops 85% of takedown attempts, Amir Albazi 62%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa lands 49% of significant strikes thrown, Amir Albazi 34%

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Charles Oliveira
Oliveira
Main Event
51%
Model Leans Oliveira
2026-12-13
Diego Lopes
Lopes
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
2026
13
DEC
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA
6
Bouts
Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira
Brazil 37-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.61
51% | 49%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 2:30 PM AEST
Diego Lopes
Diego Lopes
Brazil 27-8-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.25
Model Favourite
Charles Oliveira
50.6 %
Market · 58% on Oliveira · Moirai −8 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Charles Oliveira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Oliveira finishes 81% of fights, Diego Lopes 50%
  • Charles Oliveira wins by submission in 46% of fights, Diego Lopes in 10%
  • the case against Diego Lopes lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Charles Oliveira has never been finished in 37 fights
Method Breakdown
Oliveira Lopes
KO/TKO 9.8
29.8
Submission 25.6
7.3
Decision 15.2
12.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
20
R2
12
R3
6
R4
6
R5
28
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Oliveira Lopes
Str/min 3.2
3.9
Sig Acc 56%
47%
Str Def 49%
47%
TD/min 0.15
0.06
Finish 81%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
44
OliveiraLopes
Combined 80 18–153
Takedowns
1.4
0.1
OliveiraLopes
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 28% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Lopes

    Diego Lopes lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira finishes 81% of fights, Diego Lopes 50%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira wins by submission in 46% of fights, Diego Lopes in 10%

  • 05 Win streak favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Lopes

    Diego Lopes stops 74% of takedown attempts, Charles Oliveira 55%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
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Sergei Pavlovich
Sergei Pavlovich
Russia 20-3-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.48
61% | 39%
Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 2:00 PM AEST
Alex Pereira
Alex Pereira
Brazil 13-3-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.54
Model Favourite
Sergei Pavlovich
61.2 %
Market · 63% on Pavlovich · Moirai −2 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Sergei Pavlovich rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Sergei Pavlovich eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alex Pereira is on a losing run 1 fight(s) longer than Sergei Pavlovich
  • the case against Alex Pereira lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Sergei Pavlovich rides a 3-fight win streak (Alex Pereira: 0)
Method Breakdown
Pavlovich Pereira
KO/TKO 43.7
26.5
Submission 1.3
2.6
Decision 16.2
9.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
19
R2
11
R3
9
R4
5
R5
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pavlovich Pereira
Str/min 4.5
5.0
Sig Acc 45%
61%
Str Def 56%
53%
TD/min 0.03
0.01
Finish 75%
77%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
37
PavlovichPereira
Combined 87 20–203
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
PavlovichPereira
Combined 0.3 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Pavlovich

    Sergei Pavlovich rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Pereira

    Alex Pereira lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Pereira

    Alex Pereira lands 61% of significant strikes thrown, Sergei Pavlovich 45%

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Pavlovich

    Sergei Pavlovich eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Loss streak favours Pavlovich

    Alex Pereira is on a losing run 1 fight(s) longer than Sergei Pavlovich

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Pereira

    Alex Pereira stops 80% of takedown attempts, Sergei Pavlovich 75%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
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Joe Pyfer
Joe Pyfer
United States 16-3-0 Boxing Orthodox 4-fight win streak
51% | 49%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 12:00 PM AEST
Bo Nickal
Bo Nickal
United States 8-1-0 Wrestling Southpaw 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Joe Pyfer
51.0 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Joe Pyfer rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Bo Nickal eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Joe Pyfer rides a 4-fight win streak (Bo Nickal: 2)
Method Breakdown
Pyfer Nickal
KO/TKO 28.1
19.6
Submission 7.6
5.8
Decision 15.3
23.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
19
R2
10
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pyfer Nickal
Str/min 3.5
3.4
Sig Acc 43%
62%
Str Def 53%
60%
TD/min 0.08
0.16
Finish 75%
86%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
32
PyferNickal
Combined 70 19–119
Takedowns
0.1
1.3
PyferNickal
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Pyfer

    Joe Pyfer rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal stops 100% of takedown attempts, Joe Pyfer 67%

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal lands 62% of significant strikes thrown, Joe Pyfer 43%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal finishes 86% of fights, Joe Pyfer 75%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

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Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno
Mexico 23-10-2 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
69% | 31%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 12:00 PM AEST
Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson
United States 19-8-0 Switch Stance 1 win
Model Favourite
Brandon Moreno
69.0 %
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Brandon Moreno eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute
  • Brandon Moreno wins by submission in 14% of fights, Charles Johnson in 6%
  • the case against Charles Johnson lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno has never been finished in 21 fights
Method Breakdown
Moreno Johnson
KO/TKO 7.5
9.6
Submission 10.4
1.8
Decision 51.1
19.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
9
R2
5
R3
71
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moreno Johnson
Str/min 3.9
4.6
Sig Acc 44%
50%
Str Def 60%
56%
TD/min 0.09
0.03
Finish 33%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
60
59
MorenoJohnson
Combined 119 23–187
Takedowns
1.0
0.1
MorenoJohnson
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 71% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Johnson

    Charles Johnson lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno wins by submission in 14% of fights, Charles Johnson in 6%

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Johnson

    Charles Johnson lands 50% of significant strikes thrown, Brandon Moreno 44%

  • 06 KO rate favours Johnson

    Charles Johnson wins by knockout in 25% of fights, Brandon Moreno in 19%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Maycee Barber
Maycee Barber
United States 15-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 loss
54% | 46%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 10:00 AM AEST
Carli Judice
Carli Judice
United States 6-2-0 Southpaw 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Maycee Barber
54.3 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Maycee Barber eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Carli Judice lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Carli Judice out-volumes opponents at 8.7 sig/min vs Maycee Barber's 4.2
Method Breakdown
Barber Judice
KO/TKO 22.4
22.1
Submission 6.2
4.9
Decision 25.7
18.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
9
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barber Judice
Str/min 4.2
8.7
Sig Acc 51%
48%
Str Def 58%
60%
TD/min 0.10
0.04
Finish 38%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
46
BarberJudice
Combined 100 21–161
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
BarberJudice
Combined 1.1 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Barber

    Maycee Barber eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Judice

    Carli Judice lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Judice

    Carli Judice rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Judice

    Carli Judice stops 83% of takedown attempts, Maycee Barber 48%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Judice

    Carli Judice finishes 60% of fights, Maycee Barber 38%

  • 06 KO rate favours Judice

    Carli Judice wins by knockout in 60% of fights, Maycee Barber in 38%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Junior Tafa
Junior Tafa
Australia 7-5-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
46% | 54%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 8:00 AM AEST
QP
Quentin Pasley
United States 1-0-0
Model Favourite
Quentin Pasley
54.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Quentin Pasley is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse
  • Quentin Pasley has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Tafa Pasley
KO/TKO 30.1
26.1
Submission 4.0
11.7
Decision 11.5
16.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
49
R1
17
R2
7
R3
28
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tafa Pasley
Str/min 3.5
0.0
Sig Acc 52%
0%
Str Def 52%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 89%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
19
TafaPasley
Combined 49 15–114
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TafaPasley
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 28% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Pasley

    Quentin Pasley is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Manel Kape
Kape
Title · Main Event
79%
Model Leans Van
2027-01-30
Joshua Van
Van
UFC 336: Van vs. Kape
2027
30
JAN
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 336: Van vs. Kape

Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada
4
Bouts
2
Value Bouts
Manel Kape
Manel Kape
22-7-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
SB 2.10
21% | 79%
Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 30 Jan · 2:30 PM AEST
Joshua Van
C Joshua Van
Myanmar 17-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 8-fight win streak
SB 1.72
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Joshua Van
78.8 %
Market · 55% on Van · Moirai +24 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Joshua Van lands 3.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Joshua Van rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Manel Kape eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Joshua Van rides a 8-fight win streak (Manel Kape: 4)
Method Breakdown
Kape Van
KO/TKO 7.5
38.5
Submission 2.2
2.9
Decision 11.6
37.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
14
R2
10
R3
3
R4
4
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kape Van
Str/min 4.7
8.3
Sig Acc 55%
58%
Str Def 57%
57%
TD/min 0.02
0.05
Finish 55%
42%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
73
81
KapeVan
Combined 157 23–282
Takedowns
0.5
0.0
KapeVan
Combined 0.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 3.3 of 5 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Kape

    Manel Kape eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Van

    Joshua Van lands 3.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Van

    Joshua Van rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Kape

    Manel Kape finishes 55% of fights, Joshua Van 42%

  • 05 KO rate favours Kape

    Manel Kape wins by knockout in 55% of fights, Joshua Van in 42%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Kape

    Manel Kape stops 79% of takedown attempts, Joshua Van 75%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Joshua Van wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 64%
    Break-even 58% fair 55%
    EV / $100 +$11
    Stake 3.7%
    1.72
    $37 of $1,000 returns $64
    +$27 profit
Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates
Brazil 24-7-0 Striker Switch Stance 3-fight win streak
SB 1.53
31% | 69%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 30 Jan · 1:45 PM AEST
Michael Morales
Michael Morales
Orthodox 7-fight win streak
SB 2.39
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Michael Morales
69.0 %
Market · 39% on Morales · Moirai +30 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Michael Morales eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Michael Morales rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Michael Morales lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Carlos Prates finishes 88% of fights, Michael Morales 71%
  • Michael Morales rides a 7-fight win streak (Carlos Prates: 3)
Method Breakdown
Prates Morales
KO/TKO 18.6
25.9
Submission 3.7
2.8
Decision 8.7
40.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
14
R2
10
R3
6
R4
4
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Prates Morales
Str/min 4.4
6.2
Sig Acc 54%
50%
Str Def 48%
57%
TD/min 0.01
0.02
Finish 88%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
51
72
PratesMorales
Combined 125 20–260
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
PratesMorales
Combined 0.4 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Morales

    Michael Morales eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Morales

    Michael Morales rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Morales

    Michael Morales lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Prates

    Carlos Prates finishes 88% of fights, Michael Morales 71%

  • 05 KO rate favours Prates

    Carlos Prates wins by knockout in 88% of fights, Michael Morales in 71%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Morales

    Michael Morales stops 88% of takedown attempts, Carlos Prates 79%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Michael Morales wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 50%
    Break-even 42% fair 39%
    EV / $100 +$19
    Stake 3.4%
    2.39
    $34 of $1,000 returns $81
    +$47 profit
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 31 Jan · 10:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 31 Jan · 8:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
Predictions soon
2027-01-17
UFC Fight Night: Dallas
2027
17
JAN
predictions soon

UFC Fight Night: Dallas

American Airlines Center, Dallas, USA
2
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Sun 17 Jan · 11:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
3 rds ⏱ Sun 17 Jan · 8:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.